Expected inflation is 2.35%? Isn't that too low?

wmwmw said:
It says 10 year inflation.
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  • 5 year expected inflation is less than 2.39%
  • 4 year expected inflation is less than 2.42%
  • 3 year expected inflation is less than 2.48%
  • 2 year expected inflation is less than 2.60%
  • 1 year expected inflation is less than 2.90%

Sources:
 
Would love to see how they derive their figures. Those are a fraction of the true inflation we are currently seeing. One year inflation at 2.9% is a hilarious joke or blatantly ignorant.

Nowhere are those numbers even remotely reflected in current forward swaps and swaptions levels.
 
M.W. said:
Would love to see how they derive their figures. Those are a fraction of the true inflation we are currently seeing. One year inflation at 2.9% is a hilarious joke or blatantly ignorant.

Nowhere are those numbers even remotely reflected in current forward swaps and swaptions levels.
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Do you understand what is difference between current inflation and expected future inflation?
You sound more ignorant.
 
timothylee said:
  • 5 year expected inflation is less than 2.39%
  • 4 year expected inflation is less than 2.42%
  • 3 year expected inflation is less than 2.48%
  • 2 year expected inflation is less than 2.60%
  • 1 year expected inflation is less than 2.90%
Sources:
More...

You should admit your mistake instead of posting another set of figures to prove you were not wrong.
Current market expectation is high inflation is short lived and later next year fed will begin to cut rate because at that time both economy and inflation will go down dramatically.
That is called yield curve inversion.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/26/business/yield-curve-inversion-recession.html
 
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timothylee said:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, US inflation expectation is currently 2.35% (source: https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations). Isn't that far too low? That's unbelievably low.
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HOGWASH, IMV!

If there were no inflation, prices wouldn't continuously rise (thanks to currency debasement)... your money would hold its value and purchasing power. The $USD has lost between 95-99%, depending upon which/whose numbers you look at, of its value since the creation of the Fed.

The primary (only?) reason for inflation at all is to provide cover for government deficit spending... but even THAT doesn't work these days as the politicians SPEND THEIR F'N BRAINS OUT!
 
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M.W. said:
Would love to see how they derive their figures. Those are a fraction of the true inflation we are currently seeing. One year inflation at 2.9% is a hilarious joke or blatantly ignorant.

Nowhere are those numbers even remotely reflected in current forward swaps and swaptions levels.
More...

Yeah, total market over-reaction w.r.t. the CPI figures last week IMHO.
 
The Fed typically shoots for 2%. A small amount of inflation is expected and healthy in a growing economy within developed countries.
 
ktm said:
The Fed typically shoots for 2%. A small amount of inflation is expected and healthy in a growing economy within developed countries.
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You think so? I just ran a calculation on my TI-BAII... calculates the average inflation rate since the creation of the Fed has been 4.1%... starting with USD in 1913 = $1, and today = $0.02. That's healthy?

If my TI is wrong, somebody please correct.

We've survived the First 100:1 devaluation of the $USD. Will we survive the second? (Bread will be $400. Gasoline, too. Chinese take-out won't be $50 like it is today... it will be $5,000!)
 
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