Expectations..
- Thread starter Leob
- Start date
the probability that you blow up after one year is greater than the probability of making 1k/day after 10 years
Think of how hard it is to become a nuro-surgeon times five.
Some people have tried to trade successfully for twenty years and never got it.
Once you become accomplished, you can make 1k with 10k. It is different for everyone, I been trading so long I have over 100,000 screen hours, just had my second carpal tunnel surgery on my hands from using mouse. Scalping/day trading can take a toll on one's mind and body.
Some people have tried to trade successfully for twenty years and never got it.
Once you become accomplished, you can make 1k with 10k. It is different for everyone, I been trading so long I have over 100,000 screen hours, just had my second carpal tunnel surgery on my hands from using mouse. Scalping/day trading can take a toll on one's mind and body.
Isn't more like .. when you start to ride.. you start to ride.i.e if you survived the first year.. you may start to ride..
It is simple, but hard. It is achievable, but for how long? For the rest of our lives? Surely not. Such a great performance can only be rewarded with a few catastrophic losses as the law of large numbers catch up to you.
Every trading strategy under the sun falls under a commonly occurring shape of return distribution. When one says, "x amount per day", they will most likely gravitate to a strategy that has a left-skewed distribution. See pic..
That certainty they seek also will have baked in the possibility of a long left tail ( A very big range of possible losses).
So, don't obsess too much about the certainty of gain. But rather, welcome the possibility of a wider range of gains along with moderated losses. The key is that your strategy has a mean return on the positive side of the distribution.
For myself, I prefer lottery tickets as I am a degenerate gambler who actually loves his day job.
If you still think certainty of gain is important above all others, then you should simply buy a bond and simply bare the risk of credit and duration.
For comparison, making $1k on $50K per day amounts to 360/50 = 720% return for the year which you probably won't make buying Evergrande bonds yielding north of 500%+.
There is no free lunch. And, you will have to bear that risk (unknowingly for most) to make that money. Unless ofc, you have an edge which a lot of people will kill for. (hint: ET gives out edges like candy.)
Every trading strategy under the sun falls under a commonly occurring shape of return distribution. When one says, "x amount per day", they will most likely gravitate to a strategy that has a left-skewed distribution. See pic..
That certainty they seek also will have baked in the possibility of a long left tail ( A very big range of possible losses).
So, don't obsess too much about the certainty of gain. But rather, welcome the possibility of a wider range of gains along with moderated losses. The key is that your strategy has a mean return on the positive side of the distribution.
For myself, I prefer lottery tickets as I am a degenerate gambler who actually loves his day job.
If you still think certainty of gain is important above all others, then you should simply buy a bond and simply bare the risk of credit and duration.
For comparison, making $1k on $50K per day amounts to 360/50 = 720% return for the year which you probably won't make buying Evergrande bonds yielding north of 500%+.
There is no free lunch. And, you will have to bear that risk (unknowingly for most) to make that money. Unless ofc, you have an edge which a lot of people will kill for. (hint: ET gives out edges like candy.)
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Thank you for sharing your experience.
No.
You might also ask how likely it is to make a living as a sports professional and how long it might take.
Every day can be your last day. Injury, lack of talent, tough competition, sick during drafting.
Now you're 30 pounds overweight and you work out at a gym where your trainer is 63 and once read a manual on how to play football.
Your competition has nutrition plans, a mental coach, technique coach, endurance coach.
What are your chances?
I loved your beginning "It is imple, but hard."
I believe so...
That's it in a nutshell. Your going to see days to weeks where you think you are ready quit your day job. Think twice. Think hard.
I know I can't do 1k a day with 500k for the rest of my life.
If you trade 10 months per year, with a fixed money management method, and you earn 1k per day, you would make 200k per year on 50k..
Also, the more leverage you will use and the more difficult and stressful your trading will become.
Perhaps lowering your expectation as much as possible at first, with a very gradual increase of position size, could be easier.
You could also find that you will reach a plateau, psychologic or strategic, limiting your own possibilities to reach 1k per day, when increasing position size.
And to answer your questions, I will tell you how it would be possible for me after few years of trading financial and index futures:
On the positive note (...), it didn't took me 10 years to profit from the markets, as soon as I understood few principles (that works for me at least).
So, is it possible? Yes I think so but for so very few people. And don't take that the wrong way, but I don't believe this is a reasonable goal, especially if you need your 50k and if you don't have a lot of experience.
Happy trades!
Also, the more leverage you will use and the more difficult and stressful your trading will become.
Perhaps lowering your expectation as much as possible at first, with a very gradual increase of position size, could be easier.
You could also find that you will reach a plateau, psychologic or strategic, limiting your own possibilities to reach 1k per day, when increasing position size.
And to answer your questions, I will tell you how it would be possible for me after few years of trading financial and index futures:
Fortunately for me, I don't have to make 1k out of 50k, every day. Some days I will make 3k and some other days... Not so well. My 1st goal is to be positive every week.
Consistency is complex. Self imposed 1k per day would bring to much stress. I do have goals, more like maximum loss per day and my own daily max profit I will stop trading (before I feel the best trader on the planet and lose everything back...)
Sure, but for how long? Being able to grow very slowly 50 to 100k would bring a lot of self confidence and make you aware of your capabilities.
I tried to learn to play guitar, not so good.
On the positive note (...), it didn't took me 10 years to profit from the markets, as soon as I understood few principles (that works for me at least).
So, is it possible? Yes I think so but for so very few people. And don't take that the wrong way, but I don't believe this is a reasonable goal, especially if you need your 50k and if you don't have a lot of experience.
Happy trades!