EXP

vanzandt · Sep 11, 2018

Good under the radar hurricane play.
$88.26
They make drywall and its at a multi-year low.
The October $87.50's (calls) for $3.35 should do well.
:sneaky:

zghorner · Sep 11, 2018

i made decent money after Harvey on EXP and USG. After what the prices did post Katrina I felt like it was a good bet that paid off. What exactly has caused EXP to drop like a (gypsum) rock as of late?

vanzandt · Sep 11, 2018

zghorner said:
i made decent money after Harvey on EXP and USG. After what the prices did post Katrina I felt like it was a good bet that paid off. What exactly has caused EXP to drop like a (gypsum) rock as of late?

I was wondering that myself. I haven't read their last report, but it might be the their aggregate business. After Harvey in August of '17 it ran too. That sector has sold off quite a bit in the last 6 months. As long as there's not something wrong, it should be pretty safe. It was up nicely today.

Just looked at USG. I guess they are merging with Knauf (?). No ticker on that one. Who are they?

zghorner · Sep 11, 2018

vanzandt said:
I was wondering that myself. I haven't read their last report, but it might be the their aggregate business. After Harvey in August of '17 it ran too. That sector has sold off quite a bit in the last 6 months. As long as there's not something wrong, it should be pretty safe. It was up nicely today.

Just looked at USG. I guess they are merging with Knauf (?). No ticker on that one. Who are they?

No clue. I havnt looked into any of it since I sold. I think 2 things need to happen for hurricanes to cause the surge in price. Flooding and publicity. Katrina and Harvey both caused terrible flooding which obviously ruins the sheet rock. Harvey wasn't quite as bad damage wise and didn't receive near the publicity which is why I believe the prices didn't spike quite so much.

Its hard to say what Florence will do, are those areas prone to flooding? what happened to the price of EXP the last few times hurricanes hit that specific area?

I think its a good idea and it worked for me in the past but not so sure about it this time. If it is a real disaster like Harvey and Katrina you will have time to get in before the price jumps all the way. IMO best to leave what % would be gained by getting in very early and play it safe on the sidelines for now.