One trade is meaningless. The profit from today will dwindle away if you hold out for runners every trade. I've tested a lot of different exit strategies over a very large sample size, pretty much everything you hear about in the usual places. All I found was a shifting of the distribution of returns, not a change in expectancy. Altered distribution can be a good thing from a practical or psychological perspective, but it comes at a cost if it increases the number of trades. I think the takeaway is that the reason for an exit is just as important as the reason for the entry. If you have the skill to id important levels like you say, you should use them 100 pct. Anything but alpha is just playing with probability vs payoff.
Exit strategy - Scalping VS. runners
- Thread starter Jdesey
- Start date
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Good points;
my main measure are not points anyway. I don't have a problem with any measuring by points . But tek stuff like CSCO....... varies so much over a period of time, I don't strain my brain if I don't have to
If you really want to know the answer you need to crunch data. I'm not saying one can't make money by letting trades run, I'm saying you need skill for it to be profitable. Or some sort of statistic like you know that the opening range will contain the high or low x pct of the time, and it will move x points x pct of the time. Or you can read the tape or price action. I can say with 100 pct certainty that in a vacuum different profit taking strategies will not change your expectation. That is very easy to test if you care to do so.
I'm a big fan of positive skew trading btw. I have my tools I use to tell me to stay in a good trade and like everyone here I'm convinced I've got the secret sauce.
Oh CSCO....I accidentally made quite a bit of money on them today%%
Good points;
my main measure are not points anyway. I don't have a problem with any measuring by points . But tek stuff like CSCO....... varies so much over a period of time, I don't strain my brain if I don't have to
Then stop asking questions already. I'm going back to my old ways and calling you out on all your bullshit. You ask questions, ones that nobody but you can really answer, but then you don't even really care to consider anything else. So do what you want to do, but don't waste anyone else's time any more please. I'm personally done with any more of your questions.
It's hard to look away from a train wreck.
