i don' see any problem in that,
Exit methods for trend-traders
- Thread starter Cutten
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What are you talking about? The guy had lunch with Galileo a few days ago. He is a time traveler
What are you talking about? The guy had lunch with Galileo a few days ago. He is a time traveler
Here is a simple method to get in and out. Use a low lag (preferably zero-lag) MA and get long when it is above a 100 SMA and the 1st derivative of the zero-lag curve turns positive, and exit the long when the 1st derivative turns negative. Vice versa for shorts. Nothing special about the number 100 or the particular zero-lag MA you choose. This system will give many small losses and a few big winners.
Haven't back tested to say if it has positive expectancy, but it follows the basic tenet of let winners run and cut losses short.
Haven't back tested to say if it has positive expectancy, but it follows the basic tenet of let winners run and cut losses short.
This is an unsolved problem. There is no good method for getting out because that would depend on possible future continuation of the trend. The proper question to ask is how do you get in again if you get out too soon. This is one reason I do not like TF as It only looks fine in backtests and with optimized exits but in reality it is a mess. Most CTAs and equity TF traders made no money in 2011 and 2012 and some lost their shirts because of this problem.
TF may work on real live trading as well as backtest. all depends on your system.this is not a unsolved problem .exact exit points is impossible but catching 70% of trend without re entry is completely possible,just spend "some years" into finding that
an overnght success may take some years in trading
No it is not a waste of time, the exit point is THE most important element of a trading system (after money management of course).
In fact it is so important that you can make money trading even if the entry points are completely random, assuming you have the right exit strategy!
??
What is the opposite of "Buy when the price closes above the high of the previous day", for example?
Yes and no, it all depends on the logic of your system. For each system there is an optimal exit strategy and only a backtest can reveal what this optimal exit is, you simply cannot pull that out of a hat.
This is like arguing over which leg of a three-leg stool is most important. If all three legs aren't strong legs, you don't have much of a stool.
I believe the same guy showed that you could also profit from systematic entries and random exits. If not him then some other guy. There's a reason for the statement "Bull markets make geniuses of us all."
I said a good entry system, not any entry that pops into your head. And no I won't be disclosing any good entry systems. That's an edge.
You do know that chandelier stops are what were used to demonstrate that random entries can be profitable, right?
systematic entry and random exit (at least in TF) leads to a loss.in TF,entry points can be random but eit points can not be.
i believe the only time that we can use random entry is when we have a fixed exit point.for example we can have a system which it's exit points is fixed on twice or three times of stop loss.in this way random entry point may work.i doubt if in other cases random entry / exit works out.
would you plz explain more how a systematic entry / random exit may work ?