Exit methods for trend-traders

PitchBlack · May 15, 2005

Again you are manipulating my postings; i will quote my posting again to show what i said. Your conclusions are based on your fantasy, not on what i posted.

Posting:
"I trade the ES with 1000$ margin per contract. I make more than 20 points net a month. "

21 points is more than 20 and 1000000 points is also more than 20 points. So for both results my posting is correct. I am not forced to give my real returns, i consider that as a part of my private life.

Another masterpiece from you:"The average reader here on ET is competent enough to make their own conclusions."

What you suggets in fact is that the average reader on ET has to classify my postings in the same category as you do in order to be qualified as smart. Anyone who doesn't make the same conclusion as you is an idiot.
Well those who do what you hope they will do are the idiots. So in fact just the opposite of your logic.

Maybe you can tell me how much i can make in trading?
Probably not.

Quote from bali_survivor:

I just asked a question based on the simple fact:

that the arithmetic based on your infromation does not add up to the net results

This discrepancy is the cause that one has to put in big question marks the rest of your story.

20 points per month on USD $1000,- margin (as you mentioned before) is 100% return per month uncompounded.

Now you mention it is more. The calculation I did before ( based on the information that you posted) shows that it would be 90% return per week uncompounded.

The average reader here on ET is competent enough to make their own conclusions.

No need to reply, for me the discussion is closed.

PitchBlack · May 15, 2005

Just to give the full picture:

I posted a number of details of my trading results.
Based on these figures Bali_Survivor concluded that I had to make at least 90% per week.
I said I made more than 20 points net. I didnât give the exact return because it was irrelevant to the tread. The title was not âHow much do you earnâ, but âExit methods for trend-tradersâ. Giving my return would probably shift the focus from the tread to my (high) return.
To Bali_Survivor it is clear that Iâm a liar, although I never told any lie.
At this point I have to admit that my weekly return is indeed higher than the 90% calculated by Bali_Survivor. Her calculations confirm that what I told is mathematically correct.
Bali_Survivor will probable say now that I adapted my story; therefore I add a PM I send to an Elitetrader member on 03/30/2005, so long before this discussion started, to prove that I didnât invented this story this week because it suited me well.

The trades of Friday would have given a return of approx 70% on the capital invested.
The next question from the non-believers will be of course: can you prove it?
My answer is: I wonât give any comments anymore on returns because returns are not important for learning, explaining a method to get such a return is.

Boib · May 15, 2005

Spike I am new to futures trading and will take all the help I can get.

Please excuse my ignorance but could you explain what you mean by "I trade the ES with 1000$ margin per contractâ

Does this mean with $1000 capital you trade 1 contract?

What are your commissions?

with a max 2 point stop are you risking 10%?

PitchBlack · May 15, 2005

Indeed,

for each contract i use 1000$ capital (=margin)
2 points stop equals 10% risk
commissions are like everywhere.

Don't take this as the standard. I have very good enrties and few losses.
If you start you better take more capital and perhaps put the stops further away.
The way i trade is based on a risk/reward studie on trades my system generated. They were also adapted in function of the historical drawdown.
Futures trading is only acceptable for traders with lots of experience and discipline. Stops are very important if you want to survive. Don't take my story as that of the average trader. I was lucky and i'm in an exceptional position. 95% of the daytraders will never get where i got. But if you don't try you will never be able toi get in the top 5%. To win you have to participate.

Quote from Boib:

Spike I am new to futures trading and will take all the help I can get.

Please excuse my ignorance but could you explain what you mean by "I trade the ES with 1000$ margin per contractâ

Does this mean with $1000 capital you trade 1 contract?

What are your commissions?

with a max 2 point stop are you risking 10%?

Andy62279 · May 16, 2005

Well... been doing some testing. Seems like using profit targets can perform better than the way I'm using Parabolic for profit taking exits. In comparison it seems parabolic is way too slow. Every now and then parabolic can catch really big trades, but moves like that rarely happen. Maybe I'll implement this by June... better get back to work

murray t turtle · May 16, 2005

Quote from Andy62279:

[B In comparison it seems parabolic is way too slow. Every now and then parabolic can catch really big trades, but moves like that rarely happen. Maybe I'll implement this by June... better get back to work [/B]

=======
Thats why i like a parabolic principle [meaning cone shaped] stop ;
rather than a mindless use of it.

Also while the 3 candle exit has some excellant points;
a larger unamed number of candles has worked ,
especially if stops are tightened. Refering to days here.

Especially helpful if your personality likes to work on profits run;
but dont love to give back a large %.

OddTrader · May 17, 2005

Quote from kubilai:

hehe, 5yrtrader must be a little confused because 100% per month starting at $1k comes out to be $4M/year.

I do wonder about your strategy spike, at $1k margin per ES contract, that's about 50x leverage you're using. So you must be using a very tight stop, but it's hard to achieve 90% win ratio with a tight stop. Does that mean your system have impeccable timing? Can you tell us what your stop is? Do you always load your positions to 50x leverage?

Very good news below, as anyone simply placing $1000 under his CTA management will be very very rich very very very soon.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=49269&perpage=6&pagenumber=19

Quote from spike500:

Well, why is prof postings this than:"The Website is closed. I don't advertise. I'm not selling anything."

Because only track records that can be audited are accepted by the CFTC. When i rtegistered as CTA and gave my disclosure documents to the CFTC i had to remove ALL the hypothetical returns and replace them by real returns that could be audited.

PitchBlack · May 17, 2005

Quote from OddTrader:

Very good news below, as anyone simply placing $1000 under his CTA management will be very very rich very very very soon.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=49269&perpage=6&pagenumber=19

No there is no good news, i already posted extensively about being CTA in a thread on Elitetrader. Do a search and you will find the answer.

As a daytrader in ES i cannot turn around millions of dollars. Trading a few thousand contracts at a time is impossible.
But maybe some day i will give seminars at 3000$ a person.

Commodity_Trader · Jul 11, 2014

back to main title of this thread.
one good way is to identify last significant support level and calculate length of that swing high - low. usually price will go up until
multiply of that length .depending on he pattern it usually goes 2-3 or 6-7 times more than that primary swing.although i don't use this method myself anymore due to it's failures .
i think finding an exit point is the most important part of any system.
i've read this thread posters content. i think my exit method is completely different which i prefer not to share with others. but my actual exit points are illustrated in this thread :
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=283704

kut2k2 · Jul 11, 2014

Commodity_Trader said:
back to main title of this thread.
one good way is to identify last significant support level and calculate length of that swing high - low. usually price will go up until
multiply of that length .depending on he pattern it usually goes 2-3 or 6-7 times more than that primary swing.although i don't use this method myself anymore due to it's failures .
i think finding an exit point is the most important part of any system.
i've read this thread posters content. i think my exit method is completely different which i prefer not to share with others. but my actual exit points are illustrated in this thread :
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=283704

You necromanced a nine-year-old thread just to point to your journal thread. :eek:

Exit methods for trend-traders

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