Just awesome, for those who study the ags. I found it fascinating. It is at the bottom, "Letters to the editor".
http://www.agcenter.com/newcattlereport.aspx
http://www.agcenter.com/newcattlereport.aspx
Excellent weekly summary article in the daily cow report, for week of 05/08.
- Thread starter Overnight
- Start date
I think it going to be short lived though, could be wrong, am long both Live and Feeders and actually waiting for pullback to buy more. My system started calling for hedging open profits 2 weeks ago and it was done, so bout breakeven on those as every other day more was added. I love trading Meats, clear market to trade and yet when there was the pit, most in it had ranches or feed lots, I often thought they controlled price well. Just matter of coat tailing them.
I cut and paste the aforementioned write-up here for late-comers to the thread, since most likely next week that story will be gone when clicking the link.
"
Dear Cattle Report Editor:
I am a small cattle feeder in eastern Nebraska. I feed two groups of cattle a year. I buy a string of high quality yearlings in the fall and finish them in mid May. I struggled to find a margin for last fall's purchase until a month ago when i hedged the cattle for a small profit. I spent the past month making margin calls and will deliver the cattle to the beef packer next week.
In January I was offered a string of feeder cattle coming off winter pasture in Oklahoma for May delivery. I purchased the cattle on a basis contract allowing me to price the cattle at a time of my choosing off the May feeder board. I try to spend some time analyzing the markets and anticipate a good time to price. The board was forecasting a large drop in fed prices into June and I knew there were a lot of feeder cattle on winter pasture and decided to wait to price until just before the cattle would deliver.
This past Monday I received a call from the seller informing me the cattle were ready to come. I had been watching the May feeders move sharply higher over the past few weeks and knew they should be toppy and ready to fall, but they refused to roll over. My stomach started to churn and I was getting very nervous. It was too late to price Monday so I decided to price on Tuesday.
Tuesday I stayed in the house and put the futures on the computer screen. My worst fears were realized when May feeders opened limit up. I was beside myself and paced the kitchen watching the screen where futures remained locked up. I went outside to check the cattle for the brief period when they traded off limit only to return and find them locked up limit. Wednesday repeated the same pattern and I was getting panicky and my stomach was aching and my mind confused. The day ended Wednesday as badly as it had started.
I could barely sleep Wednesday night and woke at 4 am bright and alert. I had known since Monday that this situation was going to end badly. But in the dark of my bedroom I had a feeling of exhilaration. I realized that I alone had the power to turn the market. This is a feeling of power that I have never before experienced. I was the king of the universe. After coffee and breakfast I sat down to the computer screen to watch the opening of the futures. The May feeders didn't move up the limit but were only $2.50 higher then I watched as they fell a dollar then seemed to stabilize. This was it. I called and priced the cattle at $156.
The rest is history. The May feeders went on to crash Thursday -- closing down $3 for the day. Friday they locked down the $4.50 limit. I have been around for a while and this is not my first rodeo. I ran a breakeven on the steers for next October and came up with a $125 breakeven then looked at the October board price of $116. Such is life. "
"
Dear Cattle Report Editor:
I am a small cattle feeder in eastern Nebraska. I feed two groups of cattle a year. I buy a string of high quality yearlings in the fall and finish them in mid May. I struggled to find a margin for last fall's purchase until a month ago when i hedged the cattle for a small profit. I spent the past month making margin calls and will deliver the cattle to the beef packer next week.
In January I was offered a string of feeder cattle coming off winter pasture in Oklahoma for May delivery. I purchased the cattle on a basis contract allowing me to price the cattle at a time of my choosing off the May feeder board. I try to spend some time analyzing the markets and anticipate a good time to price. The board was forecasting a large drop in fed prices into June and I knew there were a lot of feeder cattle on winter pasture and decided to wait to price until just before the cattle would deliver.
This past Monday I received a call from the seller informing me the cattle were ready to come. I had been watching the May feeders move sharply higher over the past few weeks and knew they should be toppy and ready to fall, but they refused to roll over. My stomach started to churn and I was getting very nervous. It was too late to price Monday so I decided to price on Tuesday.
Tuesday I stayed in the house and put the futures on the computer screen. My worst fears were realized when May feeders opened limit up. I was beside myself and paced the kitchen watching the screen where futures remained locked up. I went outside to check the cattle for the brief period when they traded off limit only to return and find them locked up limit. Wednesday repeated the same pattern and I was getting panicky and my stomach was aching and my mind confused. The day ended Wednesday as badly as it had started.
I could barely sleep Wednesday night and woke at 4 am bright and alert. I had known since Monday that this situation was going to end badly. But in the dark of my bedroom I had a feeling of exhilaration. I realized that I alone had the power to turn the market. This is a feeling of power that I have never before experienced. I was the king of the universe. After coffee and breakfast I sat down to the computer screen to watch the opening of the futures. The May feeders didn't move up the limit but were only $2.50 higher then I watched as they fell a dollar then seemed to stabilize. This was it. I called and priced the cattle at $156.
The rest is history. The May feeders went on to crash Thursday -- closing down $3 for the day. Friday they locked down the $4.50 limit. I have been around for a while and this is not my first rodeo. I ran a breakeven on the steers for next October and came up with a $125 breakeven then looked at the October board price of $116. Such is life. "