Exas...

Quote from Landis82:

The fireworks are due to start March 26th, 2014
Do some due-diligence Mr. Lang.
:p
More...

C'mon. I always give credit when it's due, but this call was bad regardless of what happens 3 months from now.

EXAS up roughly 15% from start of thread.

BBH up close to 100%
SPY up 30%+

You could have thrown darts at a handful of biotech names and done multiples better.

You basically need a double just to track the biotech index!
 
Exact Sciences' COLOGUARD was recommended by an FDA Advisory Panel on March 27th with unanimous 10-0 approval on all 3 questions concerning safety, effectiveness, and benefits vs risks.

Company issued 10 million shares of stock at $12.75 and now has $250 million in cash on the balance sheet to commercially launch COLOGUARD, as well as fully-fund several clinical trials involving "other" GI tract type cancers, including PanC as well as IBD.

GOLDMAN SACHS was part of the Underwriting Book Managers, which is a first.
Would anticipate them initiating coverage shortly.

Many upcoming catalysts, including official FDA approval, followed by full CMS reimbursement within 90 days. Also, Digestive Disease Week in early May will see the release of 10 Abstracts detailing studies involving identifying "other" cancers such as Barrett's Esophogeal and Pancreatic.

Since the peak in the IBB biotech index on Feb. 25th at 275 the index is down 18.2% to 225.

In fact, many Biotechs have suffered huge declines.
But since Feb. 25th, EXAS is down from $14.00 to $13.66
-2.4%

I'm a buyer on any pullback.
This stock can generate $3.00 per share in earnings with only 1 million tests per year.
With a 20-25 diagnostic P/E, you can see the market-cap expand accordingly.
 
Stock has had a strong surge from a low of 10.69 on May 8th all the way up to $17.74 in mid-June.

FDA approval is 30-45 days away, along with CMS national coverage determination.

Annual shareholder meeting was last week.

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on June 8th, which is totally unheard of when it comes to a small Biotech company that was trading at only a $1.1 billion dollar market-cap.

With only a 30% penetration of the addressable market for colon cancer screening (in the USA alone), Exact Sciences will see over $9.00 per share of earnings and a stock price well into the TRIPLE digits and pushing $200 per share.

Non-Invasive Pancreatic Cancer screening will be the next challenge tackled by the stool DNA platform that ColoGuard works from.

Cheers!
:p
 
I think EXAS is better for option selling because it has up and down
spikes. For example, EXAS is down from 17.40 last week to close
at close at 16 Friday.

Idea is to sell puts on down spikes and sell covered calls on up spikes
usually 4 to 6 week from expiration options.

I had 50% of my shares called away in July so I am selling more puts
than usual now.

IV is over 50% so there is good premium even in near month options.

I agree it is dangerous to sell naked calls (or go short) because FDA
approval of the EXAS colon test is probably imminent.

But there is some political risk because the government might only
approve a low price per test without much profit for EXAS. Still
share value should be a least mid teens so selling puts and covered
calls is safe.
 
Cologuard is now FDA and CMS approved.

In fact, it was simultaneously approved on August 11th... which has NEVER happened before in the history of Medicare. Let's face it, Medicare spends over $15 Billion annually treating colon cancer patients because half the screening population doesn't want to undergo colonoscopy and get screened. And the FIT test is horribly dated with no real cancer detection. It only detects for blood. The Govt. wants this test. It will help cut down on not only the 50,000 annual deaths in the US, but also the BILLIONS that CMS spends treating CRC patients.

Preliminary CMS pricing is right around the corner.
EXAS is requesting $502 and the Street consensus is at $300.00
 
CMS announced late last Thursday that ColoGuard will be reimbursed at $502.
The stock surged to as high as 26.79 the following day.

After a two day "Sell the News" pattern, the stock bottomed at 22.17 today and rallied $2.00 of the low.
With a mere 10% penetration into the addressable market place, Cologuard will generate over $5.00 per share in earnings and a share price in triple digits.

Buy the Dips!
:D
 
Landis82 said:
CMS announced late last Thursday that ColoGuard will be reimbursed at $502.
The stock surged to as high as 26.79 the following day.

After a two day "Sell the News" pattern, the stock bottomed at 22.17 today and rallied $2.00 of the low.
With a mere 10% penetration into the addressable market place, Cologuard will generate over $5.00 per share in earnings and a share price in triple digits.

Buy the Dips!
:D
More...
 
I agree EXAS is a sure fire long term higher stock. Shorter term EXAS might be bought out for at least a 50%
share price premium. Only risk is execution risk of its mail lab system just being introduced. The Mayo clinic
people running it can make health care systems work so not much risk in my view. 33% of EXAS shares are
still short. I can't figure out why. Nearly 90% of EXAS stock owned by institutions. The test requires people
to collect their feces. Maybe price weakness is from people with anti-scatology phobias :)
 
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