EXAS that is a late stage biotech company developing a stool DNA diagnostic
test for Colon cancer has interesting April options with very high IV
(150 to 220). EXAS was up 0.50 cents to around 10 today,
but April option premiums barely moved. The diagnostic test is an
alternative to the unpleasant colonoscopy test so if approved by the FDA
should have an immediate large market.
EXAS is interesting because it is heavily shorted by hedgies who think
its balance sheet is terrible. On the other side are greedy call option
home run hitters buying calls. Put-call parity at its best.
Since April options expire in only 11 trading days, I do not think much can
go wrong in such as short period of time. Do your own DD, but I do not
think there will be much news until some May medical conference reports.
EXAS is not a safe stock for buying puts or selling calls. I have been selling
mostly 9 puts naked or indirectly by buying shares and selling 10 and 11
covered calls against the stock, i.e. strategy is selling different strike puts.
I think covered calls in this case are more flexible. Return is maybe 20
percent for 11 days. Even bad news that means the test is not quite as good
as original accuracy results will, I think, not cause the share price
to fall much because DNA cancer analysis know how is still valuable.
If there is no news before April 19, I will probably sell OTM May calls
against my shares but further from the market. Best for my current various
naked puts and covered calls is for EXAS to pin to 10 on expiration day.
I think the market is totally mis-pricing the EXAS April options maybe
because stock screening programs see an empty balance sheet that
looks like illusion and imminent dilusion.
test for Colon cancer has interesting April options with very high IV
(150 to 220). EXAS was up 0.50 cents to around 10 today,
but April option premiums barely moved. The diagnostic test is an
alternative to the unpleasant colonoscopy test so if approved by the FDA
should have an immediate large market.
EXAS is interesting because it is heavily shorted by hedgies who think
its balance sheet is terrible. On the other side are greedy call option
home run hitters buying calls. Put-call parity at its best.
Since April options expire in only 11 trading days, I do not think much can
go wrong in such as short period of time. Do your own DD, but I do not
think there will be much news until some May medical conference reports.
EXAS is not a safe stock for buying puts or selling calls. I have been selling
mostly 9 puts naked or indirectly by buying shares and selling 10 and 11
covered calls against the stock, i.e. strategy is selling different strike puts.
I think covered calls in this case are more flexible. Return is maybe 20
percent for 11 days. Even bad news that means the test is not quite as good
as original accuracy results will, I think, not cause the share price
to fall much because DNA cancer analysis know how is still valuable.
If there is no news before April 19, I will probably sell OTM May calls
against my shares but further from the market. Best for my current various
naked puts and covered calls is for EXAS to pin to 10 on expiration day.
I think the market is totally mis-pricing the EXAS April options maybe
because stock screening programs see an empty balance sheet that
looks like illusion and imminent dilusion.
