Examples of statistical edges in sports betting?

Old thread, but do any of you all mess with the online horse betting sites with rebates? I got a TVG account last week to get the bonus, about to move all my winnings out and just play with the bonus, now that I hit the requirements. Anyways, I was thinking on moving to a site with rebates. I've found as high as 5% on non exotic bets and 8% on exotic, I've been turning my (small) account over about once every 3 days and have managed to increase it a bit. I am learning as I go, but seems to me like money is being left on the table by not going through a rebate shop.

Does anybody have any experience with this or stories they would care to share? I only put up a very small amount of cash, but it has been a ton of fun to say the least. Not looking to do anything on a big scale, I just am thinking getting rebates on the bets would be a smart decision to reduce losses and improve gains.
 
My bonus just posted this morning, I am going to try and bounce around to a couple more sites to get their promotions if I can, then start going through something with a decent rebate program.
 
Thanks for sharing the article. I haven't had a lot of luck in finding some of the deals I have seen talked about in reports and everything. The best deals I have found typically have some underlying thing in the terms or payouts that make it not so great. Like 8% rebate on all exotic bets but only 3% on Win/Place/Show bets and they must payout over a certain amount to be eligible. I did find one that pays a 10% bonus on your winnings. I haven't read through the details on it completely, but that seems to be one of the better offers. There also are some sites that say to email them if you bet over a certain amount to work out a special arrangement for the rebates. I believe they require $10k+ a month wagered to make a deal. Which I guess if you have enough of a stake or turnover your account quickly enough that wouldn't be too difficult of a requirement. But their displayed rates aren't very high for the lower tiers so I am assuming they won't be too willing to go really high.
 
there is some software out there that claims to help your arb bets looked into a while ago, the idea is you get two bets that add up to 95% you have 5% arb locked in. The problem is you need to have many accounts and it is a a grind, no doubt some clever people are grinding a living from it. I like "live" betting for sports as the odds are always changing, there a lot more chances for the house to be wrong and if you are a capper there are some good opportunities.
Link below don't want to sound like a commercial but if you do options this is pretty intuitive.

http://www.fortunepalace.co.uk/in-play-betting-explained.html
 
kinggyppo said:
dated but interesting article on Cantor Gaming
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I have a buddy here in the US that is from England. He said he can bet on anything like this, just has to send a message to the company. Obviously sounds like the Cantor setup is much nicer lol but nonetheless.

I've been betting relatively small, limiting myself to 2% or less of my account per bet most of the time, but I have been putting on several per day. Now that my balance has moved up a decent amount I am down to .75% per bet on average so probably will increase that slightly to maintain a similar risk amount per bet. I am shooting for 1.5 to 2%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...tem-doubles-his-money-without-knowing-players interesting article on a quant approach. Says he aims for a 2% annual return on his bets. That can reach some incredible amounts when you start turning over the entire account pretty frequently.
 
Bet on the Aussie races last night, sized up my bets a bit to account for the growth I've had the past week but didn't have many good picks. I just came in slightly under breakeven for my bets on those tracks, but ended the day up overall still thanks to several good picks on UK tracks from earlier in the day.

Today has been good as well, 4/4 with 2 bets pending. I maintained the approx 2% risk profile (1.8% avg) on half the trades and then had 2 bets at half that risk. I've covered my total spend on wagers with 30% growth on amount bet assuming worst case that the pending 2 are losers and had about a 10% turnover in the account for the day. That will go up to around 20% tonight more than likely though if I bet on the aussie races again. Whew lots of numbers, just trying to keep track of my results and how things are going. Planning to switch most of my accumulated funds later this week to another account to get in on the promos.

I screwed up and took a small promo through one and later found out they are simply a middle man with a much bigger company, so they wouldn't let me get the promo deal through the larger one as well. Oh well, on to the next! Having a ton of fun with this. Trying to build up a stake as best as I can, then move to somewhere with good rebates. I'll move my total investment out shortly and just continue playing with profits so worst case scenario I can tell my wife I didn't lose any of my money haha. I have some buddies doing the same thing with me, which is making it more fun as well.

Hope everyone is having a good day!
 
Last night I performed pretty poorly with the Aussie races starting out, but sometime around 1am while thinking how stupid is this that I'm sitting here wagering money on horses, I found a research paper on something similar which led me to look into some specific stats on the horses before the races. So I decided to test it out, it hit 15/18 times. the last 3 races of the night I was feeling confident and put a small amount on each one using the method and they all 3 hit which was nice. The payouts are quite low on at least 4 out of 5 it seems because I'm betting on the horse to show not to win. Although I might be able to positively bet for them to win as several have, I haven't checked that yet. Just focused on them showing (placing in top 3) at least.

I gave it a shot tonight and wagered the minimum bet size across 10 races. 8 of 10 I picked exactly according to plan, 1 I think I clicked the wrong horse(stupid mistake), and 1 I picked a horse based on simply one statistic so not according to the main plan.

6/8 on the main plan hit and the other two missed, so 6/10 total for the night which came out to a 27% return on total amount wagered. My main concern on this is the low payouts with this bet type. 1 paid out 4:1, a couple paid out 3:2 and the lowest paid out 1:5. So basically my profit came from the 4:1 bet.

1:5 does not compensate me very well for the amount of risk I don't feel like, so I might make some tweaks. It's parimutuel betting, so the odds are determined from the total pool of bets at the time of the race, so possibly cancel my bets (one plus of parimutuel) before the race if the potential payout is too low. I need a lot more races to really have much insight into it all though anyways.

There was a synthetic track race tonight also, but I skipped it. Most of the data I had was based on dirt tracks, so didn't feel confident on the change. Based on the aftermath, it looks like a decent decision. The hit rate was decent but payouts were crap compared to the losses. That is my primary concern right now is can the lower payouts cover the losses. I need a LOT more data and to do a lot more testing.

I'll keep testing at the minimum bet for now and just see how it goes.
 
Tonight I bet on Aussie races again using my "system" I'm working on. I've got 6 of 7 races so far, waiting on #7 to run but I'm going to call it a night before then I'm sure.

Tonight I felt like there were so many scratches in each race it was unreal. That definitely didn't help the payouts but did improve my odds of success. I'm a about 20% above break even for the night's wagers with outstanding bets still , so I'll take it.
 
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