If you think about it, that's quite a profound statement about market structure...
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Examples of statistical edges in sports betting?
- Thread starter BillySimas
- Start date
If you think about it, that's quite a profound statement about market structure...
Quote from BillySimas:Anyone know if professional sports bettors / handicappers actually exist?
Yes, sure.
It's a big business.
See
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Jockey_Club
"The organization is the largest taxpayer in Hong Kong, as well as the largest private donor of charity funds, contributing an average of over HK$1 billion (approximately US$130 million) annually over the past ten years"
Even scientists are looking for patterns:
http://www.mendeley.com/research/be...-efficiency-in-hong-kong-race-track-betting/#
Quote from BillySimas:Are there any websites out there that offer the kind of easily searchable extensive sports statistics that one might need to find an edge?
For horse racing might look e.g. into:
http://www.racebets.com/en/horse-betting-online
https://www.digibet.com/?lang=01
Surely there is no place where you just get the data and make endless money without effort.
Quote from BillySimas:Seems like a pro sports bettor would need more anomalous data like how a baseball team plays in certain weather conditions or something out of the ordinary like that.
This question seems to be inspired by the movie "Moneyball".
It might be more helpful to think more along the lines of probabilities and chances than external factors.
Quote from uexkuell:
Yes, sure.
It's a big business.
See
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Jockey_Club
"The organization is the largest taxpayer in Hong Kong, as well as the largest private donor of charity funds, contributing an average of over HK$1 billion (approximately US$130 million) annually over the past ten years"
Even scientists are looking for patterns:
http://www.mendeley.com/research/be...-efficiency-in-hong-kong-race-track-betting/#
For horse racing might look e.g. into:
http://www.racebets.com/en/horse-betting-online
https://www.digibet.com/?lang=01
Surely there is no place where you just get the data and make endless money without effort.
This question seems to be inspired by the movie "Moneyball".
It might be more helpful to think more along the lines of probabilities and chances than external factors.
Thanks for the references. I did see Moneyball, but if those questions were inspired by it, it was subsconciously. Wonder if there are any decent books out there on professional sports handicapping? Decent being the key word. Lots of trading books are out there with examples of edges, so I would imagine the same exists for sports.
to the OP:
On Betfair, you can trade all kinds of bets just like you can trade stocks, forex, futures etc.
Quotes in betting markets have trends just like stocks and there are a number of people, mostly in the UK, who make a living trading (not: betting) horse races, dog races, football games etc.
I'm not sure whether the guy in the video is legit or not, this just serves as an example to show how trading on betfair can be done
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_GaL8VPFGw
On Betfair, you can trade all kinds of bets just like you can trade stocks, forex, futures etc.
Quotes in betting markets have trends just like stocks and there are a number of people, mostly in the UK, who make a living trading (not: betting) horse races, dog races, football games etc.
I'm not sure whether the guy in the video is legit or not, this just serves as an example to show how trading on betfair can be done
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_GaL8VPFGw
I have no affiliation with this, but I came across it not to long ago while searching for something else and thought it was interesting.
http://killersports.com/nba.py/home?sid=guest
They created their own query language called SDQL which is used to search their database. It allows you to search an endless number of things
Ex
How many times did team X cover on their next game when they shot less than 50% the last game and their opponent shot over 50.
So you'll have to find your own "edge" , but it seems they have tools.
There are manuals on how to use SDQL for each sport listed on the site.
http://killersports.com/nba.py/home?sid=guest
They created their own query language called SDQL which is used to search their database. It allows you to search an endless number of things
Ex
How many times did team X cover on their next game when they shot less than 50% the last game and their opponent shot over 50.
So you'll have to find your own "edge" , but it seems they have tools.
There are manuals on how to use SDQL for each sport listed on the site.
Quote from oldtime:
it aint just that, it's that the markets have an incredible propensity to trend which cards or dice or even sports teams can't equal. But yes, you can guess that the they are expecting more money to come in for the Nicks right now
Cards or dice no. Sports teams on the other hand can carry extreme amounts of momentum, and therefore "trend" if you will. My .015198 EUR. (2 cents)
Thanks, that BetFair video was really interesting and so is that database, I'll have to play around with that. I can't believe they offer that for free, I was able to run some neat queries.
Quote from BillySimas:
Thanks, that BetFair video was really interesting and so is that database, I'll have to play around with that. I can't believe they offer that for free, I was able to run some neat queries.
If you're so interested you really should become a closet bookie first and try your luck. As long as you don't give odds that are too high you should skim a profit. And don't fall for the "but this guy gave me these odds" trick.
The only evidence I've heard regarding sports betting is that it is marginally easier to handicap college basketball games a week in advance.
Go CATS!
The biggest problem even good handicappers have is overcoming the bid/ask spread. I don't mean the point spread but simply the spread you pay to bet. In football it is traditionally 11 to 10 that the loser pays while the winner gets even money.
Baseball is a tad more trouble to compute but still relatively straightforward. Betting a dime line and specifying starting pitchers (a must for any pro better) you lay or take a price with a "dime" spread. If they quote you Yankees 180 over Boston they are telling you that you will lay $1.80 against $1.00. Conversely if you want Boston they will give you $1.70 for every dollar bet. If you do the numbers they are making a market that is tough to overcome. Horse racing vig is much higher.
I heard Big Julie Weintraub, a very well know New York gambler and inventor of the junket business to Vegas, guess that maybe one or two thousand guys in America were good enough to extract a full time living as pure bettors without any bookmaking or other income to supplement their income. He also said that in his opinion no more than a couple of hundred of them made big money doing it. My guess is he personally knew more than half of the nation's serious players.
The juice is a killer. And in the day -- the 60's and early 70's -- if you were a large enough player to warrant a dime baseball line as opposed to a twenty cent line (160 - 180 ... doubling the spread) once they ran down the lines for you they expected you to bet at least three games for a nickle each. No big deal if you passed every once in a while but if they were tying up the phone and a clerk the expected some minimal play. Made it just a bit tougher to pick spots. I'm sure Costa Rica or wherever has changed the details but the basics are probably the same ... the juice is so hard to overcome.
Baseball is a tad more trouble to compute but still relatively straightforward. Betting a dime line and specifying starting pitchers (a must for any pro better) you lay or take a price with a "dime" spread. If they quote you Yankees 180 over Boston they are telling you that you will lay $1.80 against $1.00. Conversely if you want Boston they will give you $1.70 for every dollar bet. If you do the numbers they are making a market that is tough to overcome. Horse racing vig is much higher.
I heard Big Julie Weintraub, a very well know New York gambler and inventor of the junket business to Vegas, guess that maybe one or two thousand guys in America were good enough to extract a full time living as pure bettors without any bookmaking or other income to supplement their income. He also said that in his opinion no more than a couple of hundred of them made big money doing it. My guess is he personally knew more than half of the nation's serious players.
The juice is a killer. And in the day -- the 60's and early 70's -- if you were a large enough player to warrant a dime baseball line as opposed to a twenty cent line (160 - 180 ... doubling the spread) once they ran down the lines for you they expected you to bet at least three games for a nickle each. No big deal if you passed every once in a while but if they were tying up the phone and a clerk the expected some minimal play. Made it just a bit tougher to pick spots. I'm sure Costa Rica or wherever has changed the details but the basics are probably the same ... the juice is so hard to overcome.
This business is really booming. Lots of online betting sites, giving awesome offers. They have betting really easy,.