Exact Science

One of the topics that seem to be important to Jack is "bar overlap".

I searched and found a graphic that he and Neoxx did some time ago. Based on that graphic I marked the different overlap types on a chart.

If my understanding was correct then I can move on to one of those drills and maybe finish it. :) But before I need to find out how to teach a computer how to identify "small" and "most". And after that I have to teach myself how to "program" this into Excel. Well... many years later... zzzzZZZZzzzz....

Here are the bar/price overlap examples...
 

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Quote from jack hershey:


brief example: back testing scoring. If you fuck it up you get to a dead end and quit getting to take the opportunity. Better alternative. Understand what was implicit by doing an explicit back test (test unusual volume one pager) and get the success at the Sharpe Ratio level of 60 plus.
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Jack,could you please consecrate into this scoring system and another better alternative?How this one pager look like, an what are those items to score?

Don`t put the answer, just may be some hints:)

Is it something nearby Bulkowski scoring patterns?Something like Bump-and-run at point 3.

tnx
 
Quote from nkhoi:

fold them into 10 cases.
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:D

It's that easy!?

:D


In this case you assume that my examples were correct? I did this visually (guess-timating) so maybe what claims to be "HF" should in fact be "SM" or the other way around or even an "MO"?

Let's assume what I did is correct. Do you mean by "...fold them..." something like this:

1. Translations are HF (most of the time?).
2. Syms are IB (allways?).
3. FTP and FBP are MO (most of the time?)
4. OBs make a reset (most of the time?)
5. Laterals start with SM (most of the time?)
6. Hitches are ALL (allways?)

Is this what you had in mind? (in case I was right)

Thanks. :)
 
Quote from frenchfry:

:D

It's that easy!?

:D


In this case you assume that my examples were correct? I did this visually (guess-timating) so maybe what claims to be "HF" should in fact be "SM" or the other way around or even an "MO"?

Let's assume what I did is correct. Do you mean by "...fold them..." something like this:

1. Translations are HF (most of the time?).
2. Syms are IB (allways?).
3. FTP and FBP are MO (most of the time?)
4. OBs make a reset (most of the time?)
5. Laterals start with SM (most of the time?)
6. Hitches are ALL (allways?)

Is this what you had in mind? (in case I was right)

Thanks. :)
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I believe he wanted you to relate them to the cases as far as what they represent.

Think for a moment. When you specify "always" or "most of the time" you are looking to predict how often these occur. It isn't about that at all.

It's about overlap of bars. The descriptions are about how much the bars overlap each other. An OB overlaps ALL the previous bar, the others are fractions - most, half, small; and none for extreme trending.

The stronger the translation the less overlap you will have, which goes hand in hand with pace. High overlap will generally be in low pace or during change.

After letting that sink in regarding the 2 bar overlap cases, note how overlap changes during the increasing volume side of the gaussian vs the decreasing side. Dominant vs. non-dominant.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

OKAY GOOD WORK.

Reread my comments on the stitch and my commoents on the four zones that lead to thoroughness.

Pause.

there is little public info on these two when considering the VOLUME CONTXT. Elsewhere you can find five volatility estimatos and their pro's and cons. If you review these you see the contemporary blocks and stoppers for getting down to critical thinking. Examine how high the "HOPE aspect of trying to become a potential trader can get. Wrong math and wrong orientation (PREDICTION is easy when using advanced math that applied to a world of other non kindred workings like market workings. DEAD END.

What turns out to be the magic here? It is there bold and clear and yet unseen.

you found the mean (and mode) of the different paces (horizontally) and with respect to over lap or volatility (vertically). you find the gaussian distributiion is IN EFFECT both verticallyand horizontally. Now bring this to bear.

Look at the formation of bars and examine the relationship of the degrees of freedom you now have names for. You get to see how trending strats and stops during the formation of bars. How does this weigh in as to making money. You find money is being made or it is pausing. AND you find out that there is a time in formation of bars when the other consideration apprears: not making money.

here is where you discover onece and for all and finally that beginnings and endings are not at arbitrarily determined bar oopens or closes. Where are they? they are obviously at bar ectremes found during the formations of bars.

Do you want to know at the beginning of a bar when during the bar there will be an event? I hope so.

MEET the MEAT right here and now. this is where you make the single greatest improvement in effectiveness and efficiency.

I know these postsa are tough to take when you then understand the houndreds and thousands of hours wastd going out on limbd as opposed to climbing the stem of the tree. Just get over your wasted time spent in non critical thinking. Say to yourself that you promise to begin to only think critically in the future. There is one caveat; a lot of people get to discover that they cannot go forwaed because of the plethora of myths that they have incorporated in their thinking consequences. the landscape here is paved with the walking dead.

We posted the matrices on this stuff years and years ago. MAX can be googled.

today in exact science we have examined the many themes now on the table leading to the drilling down of this exact science. It is good to know for anyone that the pioneering has been done and the drill down has been completed all the way to the granularity of the markets. It is just plain good to be able to reflect on the writings of people who have successfully taken the trip. you also get to determine a more frefined critical sense for reading other writings. I do not spenf time corecting those who are out on a limb. they chose to go there.

Here is an example: A guy research for 8 grueling years. He doesn't get a clue. his publisher published him because he is a name dropper of others who didn't do the job but are well known for whatever they did.

Fast forward. we throw the pattern over to him and instruct him in how to drop trend following and adopt monitoring and analysius of trends in the Present. 8 grueling years of work and he nets out to calling the pattern "gibberish". his judgment is impared by the eight years of walking out on the wrong limb and reacing the trend following dead end. Don't make that trip as well. stay on the stem of the tree and work your way to the peak by drilling down into all the degrees of freedom of measuring markets performance. Make your trading performance match the market's continuing offer.
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Thank you, Jack! I will run some test on the matrix vertically.
 
Quote from PTVtrader:

Hi Jack,

Happy New Year! Do you have a a one pager on SSR trading as part of the PEP. Thanks
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Yes. I'm sorry I am so far behind here.

Here is an overview:

Sector Rotation is the theme.

All sectors have leaders and laggers.

In some of the top sectors their are "growth stocks" that show stellar projections. At least 15 that show 250%/yr growth.

They "cycle' as well but on a slower fractal than position trading high QA stocks that are found on the PVT Universe.

The money aspect and factors.

Money is being swept from other trading applications all stemming from the PEP paradigm and its HS and PM's. Roughly over time the SCT trading capacity is met and that stream is swept weeky into the PVT which grows to 12 streams and a 100,000 share per strean capaicty limit. Currently, the Universe for PVT is running in the neighborhood of 40 stocks. these are perilous times. This, about 25 million dollar limit is then swept into the SSR where unlimited capital may be applied on the slower fractal. PVT partial fills, at capacity, are about 20 going in and 30 coming out. thsi is corssover trading using partial fills.

In SSR the fractal is a 4 1/2 week fractal, roughly. Events are the independnet variable as usual and NOT time. Trades can be as frequent as 4 1/2 days when trading this fractal point to poiint (vis a vis price points). as usual volume telegraphs price as a leading indicator.

Sector rotation is done using 197 sectors. as expected they move before price changes. In the gap from signal to movement, you check through the sector leaders and laggers and monitor leaders to trade laggers. Agian it is like using leading indicators as signal generators for trading price moves. Partial fills take days since block size on the T&S dictates partial fill size.

the best measure of sectrs is the IBD rating system Use it in an identical way as scoring uses the A/D IBD scoring. The A's are only the top two and the D's are all the others. The bias is to quality.

This replaces both hedgefund investing or mutual fund investing and is done are slow trading rather than investing. The CW of the financial industry works off forms of regression , chaos and NN stuff. None of these deal with taking the market's offer. Taking the market's offer is event based as explained in Behavioral Finance. (go to web site). the concept of pre, event and post gives you a triad of signals and you use those to prep, act and confirm as you do the partial fills over the days.

SSR has the same advantages as PVT and SCT in using the one pattern of the market. Luckily not many participants can find the pattern anything but "unbelievable". It is not that this approach "needs" such a great advantege but is is true that front running the HERD always a huge mathematical expectancy.

again we stay out of probabilistic information theory and use non probabiltiy associated with the "order of events" that form the basis of the pattern. This make events the independent variable and NOT time. Again finite mathe prevails and everything is logic based using binary vectors.

This is an example of how being in the minority which run the markets is an advantage.
 
Quote from SK0:

Do you mean three non-overlapping pairs of adjacent cases (total six bars) or three overlapping pairs of adjacent cases (totoal four bars)?

Do we need to consider rtl and ltl? Do we need to look at the closes of bars?

TIA.
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four bars; all formations and oder of events are within the RTL and LTL. Dominance is defined as moving AWAY from the RTL to the LTL. The non dominance is the movement to the RTL from the LTL.

FTT comes about as a FAILURE in domince to reach the LTL or exceed it.

Exceeding LTL causes and acceleation of the RTL.

"Internals" rifing on or through the RTL causes the FAnning (lowering of the slope of the RTL.

Volatility of trends is often come from mythical volatility "estimators". At any given time the volatility is a "given " (channel width).

The CW doesnot deal with the counter intuitive fact that accelerated trends are LESS volatile and stronger and fannned thends (where internlsl cause a time rate of change that is lower due to elapsed time.) a more volatile in terms of trend width. Deal asymptotically to deal with these limits.

Everyone has questions. Try critical thinking in logic to answer questions. Questions are from the mind where infrence exists as items. The items are forming a differntiated chain or cloud. In the absense of inference in a space or interface, the mind poses a question for the unconscious to consider. neurons for strings with snaptic grease that is less or more permanent. as the mind excercises the neuron string form ropes and bridges are made.

As these become more setablished you get "conscious" utility form these connectiions.

i am an example of 53 years passing in this process. avsient secret societie that dealt with the potential of qualtiy human existance determined that the order of questions is invariant. Campbell amplified on this as he showed how all cultures have common ledgends and stories that teach grow for individuals. Philosophy is an example of the gathering of these strings and ropes of critical thinking.

As a person who has followed logic to its end points in markets (down to the granularity of the markets), it tunrs out there is no noise and no anomalies. For most this is an impossible and fictional position, except that it is not.

My view is to help those along the way by inciting in them the desire and ability to take the path to its natural end. I picture it as a match box filled with micro circuits and very connectable to anything like the MIT computers being given to children in very underdeveloped communities. As a little tiny tool it just makes possible anything for any family. In developed nations, why not use education to enable people to make tiny matchboxes that can deal with all the contemporary problems.

I liked building mine so much. It is where Freedom comes from. Using it is sort of anticlimatic. It reminds me of the definition of a full time trader or employed person in the financial industry: This is a person who has not learned how to trade as yet.
 
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