Exact Science
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Hi Jack,
I couldn't find much information on that Volatility, Overlap vs Volume Pace matrix. The only way I interpret them is near FTT, bar volatility decrease and overlap increase, given a particular volume. i.e. bar volatility smaller than the mean in the Volatility matrix, bar overlap value (compared with the previous bar) larger than the mean in the Overlap matrix. Am I correct? Did I miss anything?
Quote from SnakeEYE:
I came across his thread on TL two days ago.He then introduced the basics of your method.Good thread.Basicly,it could be derived from the first several pages and next there were only specification and argue(as usual).
There could still be nuances,though,particularly,when he mentioned 'subtleties '.It would be interesting to ask him what did he mean by the 'subtleties'.Seems no one wanted to ask him about it.Therefore the 'subtleties' still remain undiscovered
Spyder is correct that there are "subtutlies" in trading and this applies to all approaches. W can watch this as the exact nature of doing appraoaches in a scienfitific way emerges.
I deel that it may be clear that there are two types of events in trading and, further, events have pre and post characterisitics.
One of the most popular less productive styles of trading is "confirmation trading. This is when a trader sees a signal and remains in emotiional fear, anxiety and/or anger UNTIL he sees that the signal was actually agood and valid signal. He trades at the time of confirmatiion instead of the first opportunity when the signal actually occurred. A lot of this style of performance comes from not "connencting entries to exits if a nwhen the trader's skill is still at a state where he MUST do entry/exit style trading because of his mental/ emotional state. This lack of confidence is wholly justified and his "nature " or heritage is keeping him in a "survival mode".
I'll do several posts that relate to science and also add in the way people are approaching each given opportunity. People do not always take opportunities because the survival emotions over control their not using critical thinking.
Quote from SnakeEYE:
3,14 was evaluated 4k or even 17k years ago by the ancients. The Great Pyramid is the evidence.Only many many years later it was realised by modern mathematicians.
the pyramids are profound.
Their dimensions explicitely give, in a scaled ratio form, all of the physically descriptive dimansions of the earth and, further, how it and the moon ooperate as a pair. Most pyramid literature does not do the details of all of this recorded information.
Additionally there are several biochemical processes that are present that show how the sun's energy performs the important cycles for life on the erath's biome.
This is similar to the way the illuminatti used the periodic table As yet unannounced to the public at the time of the Illuminatti) as a disguise for incorporating the discoveries of the Essenes and the Coptics. The Essenes were Hebrew type monks and the Coptics were the educators of Egyptian royalty. The Illuminatti were handed down the implicit knowledge from thwsw resourseful organizations
So moving to the present and how potential traders do or do not handle the implicit "subtulties". People have to consider four regions or zones when they iteratively refine their trading performanc in terms of effectiveness and efficiency. As these are pointed out, please make a judgment on the financial indutries and the government's defacto and prima facia handling of these four regiions or zones. It will be obvious as to where detractors come from as you digest these considerations.
I'll just rough them out instead of fleshing out their critical thinking basis. My order of introduction is NOT relevant nor decsptive.
1. Rule set choices:
a. processing context.
b. processing sensing.
2. Compiling choices:
a. happenings
b. extant logic
3. Existant choices:
a. all happenings (full differentiatiion)
sub 1 needed
sub 2 just found
b. just extablished inference
4. Logic choices:
a. theory
b. experience
c. Both.
As you can see most people are no where and getting no where. That happened in the financial industry and government and with the detractors. They all get headaches when it comes to critical thinking to cover the four zones.
We, in this thread, have started to put some considerations on the table which go far to adding the coorolaries to the paradigm, HS and its PM. Drilling down goes as far as the granularity of the market. The purpose of this expasive and explicit effort is performance and measured by effectiveness and efficiency.
Lets chat about those items that have surfaced.
Quote from SnakeEYE:
I came across his thread on TL two days ago.He then introduced the basics of your method.Good thread.Basicly,it could be derived from the first several pages and next there were only specification and argue(as usual).
There could still be nuances,though,particularly,when he mentioned 'subtleties '.It would be interesting to ask him what did he mean by the 'subtleties'.Seems no one wanted to ask him about it.Therefore the 'subtleties' still remain undiscovered
You will see that all "subtulties are introduced by queries. The ewaponses to queries are to focus the person on the critical thinking process he can choose to go through to get the answer to his query. we go to where the person is and direct him down the path that has lead to the answer. We do NOT just put the answer before the person to digest. Usually any person who gets answers will turn to the dictates of his past formal educational process and STOP thinking critically and simply invent an alternative wqrong solution for going further.
It is extremely important to not leave the main stem of the tree and go out on limbs to dead ends.
brief example: back testing scoring. If you fuck it up you get to a dead end and quit getting to take the opportunity. Better alternative. Understand what was implicit by doing an explicit back test (test unusual volume one pager) and get the success at the Sharpe Ratio level of 60 plus.
We did this process for five years plus in the threads on PEP and its applications. It is a web based information source that is like a complete blog on the approach and its applications. the 2 million hits/ yr attest to its eddectiveness. Although the threads are closed in most cases the hits continue.
Abstracting my writings into a five part suite is also possible. That culling is done and the editing is underway as a low low priority.
How you can discover the subsequent study path is to consider the pairs of bars.
In Behavioral Finance the clear statement is made that events have pre and post considerations; call them "contexts".
Look at a stitch and look at the pre and post pair. you get to discover whether pairs follow on another or whether they over lap on another. You can conclude that you can develop an event triad (pre, envent, post) either way and that either becomes quite informative.
this may lead yo to look at all the cases in the same light and to use the case rules for trend analysis armed with this new lnowledge.
this effort edeserves getting out several shhets of paper and exploring possibilities and then turning to actual market performance to see how toarrange the logic of what you have found.
there is a very significnat result. you find out how trends work and that includes finging out how they begin and end and what the precursors are for thesebeginnings and endings and, furthermore, what the confirmations of beginnings and endings astually are.
Having collected all of this factual and certain information, then you goabout makeing resonable adjustments to your approach. this changes the frequency (lowrs) and extent of stress as expressed as anxiety, fear and anger, the common state of CW and PA type potential traders.
At some point it will become appaent that this price monitoring and analysis is accompanies by volume monitoring and analysis. Here you find that stitches wheher dominant or non dominant have direct corrsponding relationships (as opposed to inverse) relatiionships with volume formatiions.
the above is how meat is put on the bones of observations using the scientific method. At some point a discovery may be made as to just what kind of mathematics has utility in doing high performance trading. you dind at this time just how the financial industry and ocountless other categories of potential trading missed the boat and cannot ever get back aboard because of crossing the line repsresting the last chance to reverse the incorrect buildiing of the mind.
the mind has limitatioins. When it get filled wityh the consequences of bad choices, its survival mechanisms (Lizard Syndrome and Bohr effect of putting 20% overload of C O 2 in the brain) simply drive the potential trader from being able to participate in learning to trade. In ET a lot of these folk , temporarily participate as detractors until their mental mechanisms repeat the detractor lesson and they retire from irratiional critiques.
No comment.Except of that i would just trade places a bit:
1. Compiling choices:
a. processing context.
b. processing sensing.
2. Rule set choices:
a. happenings
b. extant logic
3. Existant choices:
a. all happenings (full differentiatiion)
sub 1 just found
sub 2 needed
b. just extablished inference
4. Logic choices:
a. theory
b. experience
c. Both.