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Exact Science
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Quote from ProfLogic:
Jack is there a particular reason you aren't answering my question? I am actually iinterested.
Does your price bar color change at the open of the bar, during the bar or at the bar close?
Thank you.
Sorry I didn't respond.
I did not read any posts until just now.
Those are Multicharts snagits or scan of multicharts after annotation.
It is my belief that multicahrts convention is close to open.
Usually I change the default to open to open. Open to open is the mental orientation of those doing the cycles.
As you see from the logs, we use volume to trade price since volume leads price.
the one exception is that we use the DOJI to set up a price test which is performed when the price goes through the doji and a color change is occurring as measured by sentiment change.
Cycle 1 only deals with dominant price moves via volume measurements using a binary vector orientation only.
Next I will comment to frenchfry regarding the M to N to Z or fail to P to E to For G.
Hi Jack,
I hope PDF files are OK for you to open and annotate. Enclosed please find some comments/questions about bar 7 from December 13th.
I could follow your log until bar 7 looking at a static chart. But when I made a chart replay some things looked a little bit different.
Please have a look.
Thanks.
I hope PDF files are OK for you to open and annotate. Enclosed please find some comments/questions about bar 7 from December 13th.
I could follow your log until bar 7 looking at a static chart. But when I made a chart replay some things looked a little bit different.
Please have a look.
Thanks.
Probably the answer to your Q's are found on sheet 10 and the 11x17 composed of sheets 8 and 9.Quote from frenchfry:
Jack, thank you for the logs.
I will examine them in more details but what strikes me immediately is the rare occurrence of "N" or "M". I would have expected to see the logs full with them.
Maybe you simplified your logging by not writing down every little detail or station in the flow chart. But it is also (very) possible that I didn't understand it yet.
Here is why I would expect the log to be full with "M" and "N":
- The bar opens, then price goes in one direction, let's say short.
- Price comes back to the open value. We have a Doji. We do "M" and "N" test.
- Price passes the open value and continues for a few ticks.
- Then price comes back to the open value. We have a Doji. We do "M" and "N".
- Price goes short again, then returns to open, passes long, comes back to open, passes short, etc., etc.
All of this happens multiple times during a bar. Therefore the log must be full with "M" and "N". Did I understand this correct?
This system is an anti-whipsaw system.
What happens is that the flow is set up to do washes or reversals in the same way a person pays for a ticket to gain the right to go to a movie.
In trading you have to front run the market to be able to take advatage of price moves which make money. Usually it is called hitting home runs
Today you may have noticed over 8 points per contract were made in two bars. It is called trading the news as well. A 2.2 trade was follwoed by a 5.3 trade. (the point 2 and point 3 refer to .50 and ,75 points, respectively.
the flow sheet is extremely sophisticated and mush of the node information content is "implicit and only become explicit when you mind is grwn by having short term memory become long term memory AND organized by the conferences content becoming "differentiated".
Drills are how this is happening and logging is how the record of events is put in order. What you see on a completed chart is not showing very much of what happened as each bar was built. Onlt the final color and the four parts of a bar still "show".
In ET it is not a custom of people to sake anything but hindsight questions. Usually they are based on the scope and bounds of a person's experience.
I kept the logs brief but no events are omitted.
In our session today we all used more than one row for a bar to be able to write what happened as we extracted the continuing offer of the market. we also filled in the behavioral action price values and constructed the net from those.
As you will find out, the M to N is the most common loggging annotation by far. Most behavioral action is a consequence of the DOJI test which is called the IBGS which is a name for sentiment change as measured by the leading indicator of price.
Lets look at when the DOJI is important during dominant price movements. Cycle 1 purposely only trades dominant moves.
At this point the group often refers to the YM since, there is is possible to see in one dominant ES move, the three moves on the faster fractal than the ES trading fractal.
this is what fractals mean and it is the reason why fractals are interlocked in a 3:1 ratio, movementwise.
In an ES dominant move it is possible that no DOJI's occur on each bar bar after bar.
You may be unfamiliar with how granularity works and is exhibited on OTR charts. In the past I have spent time explaining the "two pair" concept and part of the "Sweeps Chart" nine tables address this cinsideration.
Trading is an exact science because of granularity. There is liquitity in ES because there is no spread. BUT there is always a BBid and BAsk. Read chapter 4 of Harris to explore the naming convention for the bids and offers going more and more remote from BB/BA.
Since there is always a pair and most often a "two pair" oscillation, any skilled traders knows this as knowledge and he uses knowledge to perfect his skill set.
As it turns out, until a person begins to annotate and log, he is in the dark about the order of events of markets. Every "event" also has a pre and post circumstance.
Most people never see the market in the first place, as a matter of fact.
when the market becomes visible the shesing is uterly stranded because perception is not possible. Perception is 90% infrence and empty brains (minds) are incapable of providing inference.
A common lament is: "If I cant percieve it; it is bullshit."
Do you think anyone can steer their way around cycle 1? No it is bullshit to them since their minds are blanks. these people explain over and over their minds are blanks. the cycles and the pattern are bullshit to blank minds. Covell was a classic on this. He went through an 8 year hazardous journey to foist off on Prentice Hall Trend Following as a manuscript. He says the pattern is gibberish. Everything the mind has no inference for IS gibberish. Where there is no PERCEPTION it is bacuase what is sensed has no inference counterpart.
You have to begin to drill and do repetition of lessons to build inference to have perception.
Trading in markets is an exact science by reason of granularity.
The DOJI is the place where sentiment is in the balance. Market granularity is what to use to reason thorugh market snetiment change. That is why I posted three days of logs, clean charts and annotated charts.
studying these items is only valuable if you begin to log in a similar way using the flow chart, the 3x5 cards and the 60 inches of the dechunked flow sheet which is an expasion form something 10 inches long that did not owrk for anyone's mind.
you leave the flow in one of four ways to get to M, the DOJI.
M to N to test to pass or fail to P to E to F at the time you log getting to F. There is no alternative as the market goes forward.
this is total certainty.
BB/BA is taken into consideration as you will find out looking at the OTR chart. A BB/BA starts one way and ends the other way. Go look and see for yourself for the first time.
An empty mind has a miraculous place where what is sensed goes to. It goes to the manure pile when there is no other place which to go. Your manure is there by past decisions.
To trade, the bottom line is that you MUST know that you know how markets work.
clcle 1 gets the ball rolling with a simple flow chart that shows the flow of the order of events in the market.
Congratulations at arriving at THE PLACE where the determination of sentiment change takes place IF IT TAKES PLACE THEN.
CW has a wolrd called whipsaw. It is the place where peoiple cannot differentiate between what really is going on. that is never going to change. It is like Joe Ross pronouncing the market trends X% and is chop Y%. This all comes from the manure plie he creates in people's minds. They believe it and get brained financially time after time after time.
Markes have no noise nor any anomallies. Markets flow in an order of events.
I like to read and observe others. I want to know how their minds didn't get away from where they are stuck in their belief system. I like to see people move forward and reduce their manure piles.
congrats on getting to M and considering each bar with repsect to M. add the granularity and be home free.
Quote from ProfLogic:
OK, if the color change is measured by sentiment change, then is the bar color updated on every tick (this is a setting in MultiCharts) or is it set at the close of the bar?
This is a tick by tick occurence.
I use four feeds minimum and they are for doing about twice as many trades when a person gets beyond the beginner level of cycle 1. We will go through 10 cycles here fairly soon.
At that time you will see more and more panes brought to bear on extracting the market's offer.
As you see I use MC to get streams of lights (31 colors) flowing. this is done to use the leading events of indicators for trading price as a lagging instrument.
Quote from jack hershey:
This is a tick by tick occurence.
I take it you have MultiCharts set to "update on every tick" then. That is all I was asking. I am familiar with your "sentiment".
You need to be aware of an issue in MultiCharts though. There is a major difference in the real time data we are getting from our data providers (Tradestation or eSignal as an example) and then going back and looking at the same data as "historic" data, especially after the data has been reloaded. It has to do with the way MultiCharts stores the data in its databases folder. If you have your system up 24/7, Sunday through Friday without rebooting you won't see any idiosyncrasies. If you reboot at anytime the data will not be the same (the tick by tick data) as you saw in real time. I've had two programmers validating this for over a year now. I still think Multicharts is the best out there but it isn't bug free. For that matter, nothing is. I simply bring this up because what you do is so reliant on the accuracy of your information.
Quote from frenchfry:
Hi Jack,
I hope PDF files are OK for you to open and annotate. Enclosed please find some comments/questions about bar 7 from December 13th.
I could follow your log until bar 7 looking at a static chart. But when I made a chart replay some things looked a little bit different.
Please have a look.
Thanks.
You are showing a chart that has no PRV on the volume display. Too bad.
What is showing there are a couple of pairs that began the bar.
So far into the bar there is little actual real accumulated volume.
You may wish to begin to look at the market as it unfolds and not be quite as handicapped as you show in this snagit.
Here is my recommendation.
Give yourself a huge break and tool up your platforms so you can see the markets.
By having a display that presents volume as leading indicator of price, you give yourself an advantage.
that funny yellow thing showing may not be your best friend. I know it represents a FBP and it makes bar 7 and bar 6 be just one bar.
As you see, you are doing a R2R 2B 2R and,specifically you have completed the R2R and the 2B. this means you have put in points 1, 2 and 3 and the parallelogram for the pattern is established and there is a given volatility as the veical distance between the RTL and the LTL. Both the points and the TL's are missing so bar seven is still an unknown to you in almost every way. This was 317 bars ago.
You are sitting on a bar @ the value of the open and do not know the final volume of the bar as yet because you do not display that final volume all the time while the bar is forming.
You are on a bar following a bar that opened on its high and closed on tis low. Bar 7 has just begun and has one tick of volatility and 100% overlap.
Just get out your two matrices which explain 1600 bars worth of overlap and volatility compared to the market PACE. you are not displaying the market PACE either it looks like. I do see a few horizontal lines and I do see they have a rainbow arrangement.
Now, lets determine a few things for knowing that you know at all times.
1. Are you in the market?
2. Are you long or short?
3. What is the current market sentiment?
4. Are you noting a dominant or non dominant moves?
5. what node are you on on the flow sheet?
The answers from your chart are not determinable.
1. On the end of bar 6 you are on the sidelines and on node B.
2. Bar Bar 7 you must be long and be on node F. You pass the node test (see 3x5 card.
3. The sentiment is long. This is told to you at 300 seconds of bar 7 by the BB/BA. I do not think your bars are color coded as yet due to lack of coded information feeding your display.
4. The sentiment is dominant as determined at second 300 by the volume adjacent bar test. You have a first derviative who sign is plus.
5. At 300 seconds of the bar, there was an entry F by following the link from node B (bar 6) to F by virtue of 4 and 3.
As you sit and make money long, you log the lockin early in the bar. You are on node N looking for a place to go on the next bar.
Before the end of the bar it goes into a red modus and arrivs at the close. you note the time in sweconds when this event takes place.
You prpare for bar 8 by placing your arrow on the trading icon to either exit or reverse. this is done by one or two clicks, respectively. one click is exit two clicks is reenter in the opposite direction.
do the know that you know questions.
1. in
2. long
3 short. bulb lights you have to change sides of the market if you stay in.
4. bar 8 hits. At 300 seconds you are non dominant. you know to exit since cycle 1 is beginner trading dominants only. cycle 1 is to teach you dominant bar trading ONLY. you hit the icon ONCE.
5. At your leisure you log bar 8 as H to X to J to A to B. you sit for almost 300 seconds. You just made about 15% of margin with respect to getting to 100% to be able to add a contract. the goal for the day on cycle 1 is two 2 point turns for each of the 2 contracts. You are now done the second trade of the day Your first trade did better at over 3 points per contract. So now at bar 8 you have met the total goal for the day by doing 2 turns.
It may be that since your display does not let you know that you know where you are, that you may not be making the offer of the market. you can see that you have an emotional level at the beginning of bar 7. behavioral finance says journal your emotion anf make a reasonable change in your trading approach. For you it is to get your display to begin to work. ADD PRV. Add market PACE. Begin to log using a log and the cycle 1 flow chart.
Does this make snese? Yes. Will you do it? No. Why not? It is too much work to do these things and it always has been.
These wo trades would take you 30% of the way to adding a 50% money making capability. They didn't on last monday. they didn't on tuesday. They didn't on Wednesday and they didn't on Thursday. Will they on Friday? No they won't.
Are you getting any help when you ask questions? No you are just reading the responses to your situation.
Save and print this response and put in in a three ring binder right on top of your post's print out. refer to it in your journalling of your emotions and the "reasonable fixes" you add to your trading approach.
Quote from ProfLogic:
I take it you have MultiCharts set to "update on every tick" then. That is all I was asking. I am familiar with your "sentiment".
You need to be aware of an issue in MultiCharts though. There is a major difference in the real time data we are getting from our data providers (Tradestation or eSignal as an example) and then going back and looking at the same data as "historic" data, especially after the data has been reloaded. It has to do with the way MultiCharts stores the data in its databases folder. If you have your system up 24/7, Sunday through Friday without rebooting you won't see any idiosyncrasies. If you reboot at anytime the data will not be the same (the tick by tick data) as you saw in real time. I've had two programmers validating this for over a year now. I still think Multicharts is the best out there but it isn't bug free. For that matter, nothing is. I simply bring this up because what you do is so reliant on the accuracy of your information.
I do not operate on the TS or esignal level for my raw data multiple feeds and applications. A lot of panes require tick data. Until a person gets in the habit of seeing the market, he may only be using a couple of independent feeds.
If anyone is screwing up any data feed to me they know about it promptly. The first few screw ups I tolerate their personal lack of understanding. after that, they get coded test stuff from us so they can figure out what they are failing to provide or clean up. Then they get it straight.
If any provider interupts my operation with announcements or other BS, they learn to not do that either.
I have turned down a 44K service from IBD as far back as their beta testing.
I have heard that good data costs money. My providers are aware that money is not a consideration for me.
Has anyone noticed I rarely post my charts but that I usually markup chsrts provided by others?