Quote from PTVtrader:
Jack, was this because Aug/09 failed to have " more increasing black " before reaching the ve level on the monthly chart ?
For me, the time that has a lot of what provides the prsent deja vu is the scneario of '87. The boutique I coordinated with knew for certain the crash was coming so the effort to go to cash had to be completed.
Here we have the multi year Depression scanrio.
So what applied to '87 was a 4 to 10 day P, V test.
In a Depression things are measured in years. On Sunday Berneche got it half right on unemployment stretching our 5 to 6 years; it will actually be 10 to 12 years.
Let take a look at the recently annotated chart's volume leading into the climax run of the Bull market.
There you see the THREE spikes of volume that betrayed what you noted: "failure to have more increasing black"
WHAT WAS THERE INSTEAD OF EVEN BLACK WERE "DOMINANT" SPIKES THAT WERE
RED.
All of this was in 2006, however. The die was cast the Bull ended and the Depression began to knock off the pattern points.
I parsed the chunks of going to point 1 and going to point 3 and drew pink lines to show the "order of chunks" as a series of segments that are WMCN chunked for each series.
What contrasts the two series is that one is dominant and this one is non dominant. Even in a non dominant there is an ftt which ends the sub pattarn on hisher volume. You can see the month with that volume.
So this post peak volume can only continue a trend in a state of fannning (as internals precipitate). Depressions, last for many years and this is the fifth year of this one, econometrically speaking. this is not an intermediater term formation context.
As the LTL of the Bull retrace was quenched and snuffed out of the picture. The Depression "HOPE" formation replaced it.
Simply fanning the Bull retrace is not sufficient in terms of applying logic by critical thinking.
Understanding what is dominant in a Depression is a requirement. We all are told that and red volume is what is telling us what is dominant.
you can see on the annotated chart the Bull retrace of the Depression was a non dominant sentiment in this Depression.
Now we have proceeded for 21 months (counting from point 2) to get a tangent to the inverted saucer so the Depression RTL is "locked in".
Red dominant volume is what moves the inverted saucer forward.
Breaking out of the inverted saucer downward will happen as no overlap of formations ensues. we will simply be commencing the first moves of the last MAJOR move of this Depression.
As said, on Sunday we learned unemployment will persist.
What will be the TA imprimatur of bad news on unemployment? You can also add in the other 5 main causes of negative aspects of direct, indirect and induced aspects.
These will be VE's which will be the cause of "accelerating" the RTL of this Depression." I plan on dealing with three VE's during the first 2/3 of the last leg of the Depression.
How does a VE get in place? Peaking red volume.
Probably, more people cannot be expected to deal with long term econometric patterns. They had only experienced one (long) in their lives. That's life.
It probably will get across to people what peakinf red volume means after three successive lessons.
1. The cause of the climax run on the prior Bull market.
2. The performance of red vulume peaks in the inverted saucer sequence to get point 3 of the depression. AND
3. The VE's of the accelerating Depression during its remaining 10 to 12 years.
"Failure of increasing Black volume" is off the table for many many years to come.
