Exact Science
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You really need to get your story straight, Jack.
For me, filling in my daily log ahead of time is a consequence of WMCN. Noting the bars it is going to happen on can be done a couple of bars ahead, usually. It is a calm and relaxing way to operate. I probably should post my logs ahead of time for a few days.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2593083#post2593083
For me, filling in my daily log ahead of time is a consequence of WMCN. Noting the bars it is going to happen on can be done a couple of bars ahead, usually. It is a calm and relaxing way to operate. I probably should post my logs ahead of time for a few days.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2593083#post2593083
What makes trading an exact science is the frame of reference.
Specifically, I consider "anticipation" as different from "prediction". Who cares if anyone reads something into my comments from a different vantage point?
When a system is built from scratch using the dictates of the market, also, there is an underlying system of deductive proofs.
I chose to look at the market as a system and some factorsbecame apparent immediately.
Understanding that "prediction" is not necessary is just a by product.
Any market produces only so many cirumstances in the Present. In Prediction, people establish all the possibilities and bet on what they think can make them money.
My view became that there were only a finite number of possibilities, and it turned out, by deduction, only one possibility at any time remains.
All market events have only two possibilities: continuation of change. All events are surrounded by what comes before and what comes after.
The happenings in markets can best be described as chains of events. Events in markets come in an order. The order is locked in through deduction.
Teenagers like Fanning, Johansen, and Frankel took advantage of getting the order of events straight. They didn't bet on anything. Niether did their older counterpart, Cohen.
The key to the exact science of markets is to get the pieces and put the pieces together. This describes finite math.
So I did.
When you have iether continue or change, you may be able to put theem in order. for year upon year, Trader666 hasn't been able to do that. as we have seen over those years, who cares? None is going to get him to understand how two things form an order and the order forms cycles.
what kind of a geometric form results from two things in an order which has some kind of appearance?
Start from a circumstance. It is one thing or another. If you look at the pre circumstance, you get to see one of 10 possibilities. From where you look you see 8 of the ten, explain that an event in the market has not happened. Two items remain. They are opposites (long or short trending).
Participants in markets have only five different decisions to make. They are exclusive. Three are behavioral; two are just decisions that do not require overt behavior.
People believe that they cannot put these simple pieces together. They go for years and years believing they are incapable of taking the market's offer all of the time. Who cares what they believe about themselves? It just doesn't matter at all.
We all hear these voices of these kind of people.
8 out of the 10 cases the decision is the same identical decision determined only by the market participant's status.
If you are on the sidelines you WAIT; id you are ina a trade you HOLD.
What about the long or short case? You need to measure the case it is. HH and HL or LL and LH? Can a person do this difficult task? Four points are involved. If a person can do the task, he can decide to do one thing. The one thing is to HOLD. HOLD is how money is made.
WAIT and HOLD make up a lot of time of operation of markets.
WAIT is a time of no or little price change. HOLD is the time of making money.
What unique case has not been covered? Of course, it is the HH and LL. Is this complex in any way? No. The name is OB.
So what happens when you have an extension of the 8 cases; you' re simply becoming more mentally equipped. You can recognize a longer WAIT.
People can either do it or they cannot. I do it. It is like driving a car for me.
Making the decicion to end waiting is called ENTER. Making the decision to end continuation is called EXIT; after beginner it is called REVERSAL.
A person can sit down and lay out alll his money making segments in advance. MADA is the routine for keep track of how a bar is forming to be one of the 10 cases. How cases flow is simply logged.
Cycle 1 is just an example of the cases unfolding in the context of three interlocking fractals. Its context is the leading variable (volume) of the context (price) above.
How magical is it to put both together?
Here's the dog poop on that. You go from one multiple of the ATR to higher multiples. as a person drills down to eactract all of the observable offer her goes from a multiple of 1 1/2 or 2 to 3 or 4 and then on up to 6x the H-lL of the day.
To make ll of this more convenient; most platforms now can automatically annotate the 8 cases by just putting a box around them and coloring the field inside yellow. When a two bar bar gets extended the field turns from yellow to blue and it is called a "lateral".
I do not think after all these years have passed that T666 could ever get his mind to begin to see anything but dog poop anywhere he looks. Certainly it is beyond the pale for him to see that "anticipation" allows a person to lay out the next 17 trades in their order (I did it to make a point with traderzones who was taking shots at explaining he is like trader666).
Prediction is not a part of finite math. Prediction is the main substance from which betting on markets comes from. Prediction is not necessary and it is inexact. It is simply not reasonable to prodict when you can deal in certainty.
V leads P and you can use the combination of events in each to always "know that you know" exactly where you are with respect to any market.
Why not "Just Do It"? Look to the behavior of a person like T666. Absolutely do not believe in yourself or your potential. Just BE as t666 and live with the consequences.
Unfortunately, Trading has been currently deleted from the definition of exact science, exactly as scientifically ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method ) predicted in an exact science way.
Q
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exact_science
An exact science is any field of science capable of accurate quantitative expression or precise predictions and rigorous methods of testing hypotheses, especially reproducible experiments involving quantifiable predictions and measurements. Mathematics, physics, chemistry, as well as parts of biology, psychology, and the social sciences can be considered as exact sciences in this sense.
UQ
Here are another links for those who confuse exact science of trading with user errors.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User_error
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Herivel
HTH
PEBKAC...PICNIC...ID-10-T...boda bing boda boom boda bam...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User_error
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Herivel
HTH
PEBKAC...PICNIC...ID-10-T...boda bing boda boom boda bam...
How about from YOUR vantage point? As I said... you need to get your story straight.
I guess it is pretty clear by now that when I predict a year in advance, it happens. When I decline to predict, there is a reason: these times are very serious and it is important to always be on the mark and not reach too far into the uncertain future.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2592722#post2592722
I guess it is pretty clear by now that when I predict a year in advance, it happens. When I decline to predict, there is a reason: these times are very serious and it is important to always be on the mark and not reach too far into the uncertain future.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2592722#post2592722
I consider the long term economic and econometric local and international condition, circumstance and situation to be a significant context for people who have planes, strategies and routines.
In about JUN/JUL 2006, a depression began. The Camtasias from that point on took this into consideration as may be seen in the archives.
the significant quotes from me that you continually point out deal with more than the sophomoric play on words you do by word searching to find presumed differences.
Refer to van Tharp as a person who has documented Bull and Bear markets and their durations. I deal in finite math so I do not have a descriptor for other than either a Bull or Bear market designation.
The subject of your quote is the cureent Depression and assessing in advance anticipating the next point in the Depression construct.
Just as the climax rune of the last Bull market ending was complex, so is each point in the parallelogram that forms the current Depression. Points 1 and 2 are fairly well defined.
One the way to point 3 01SEP09 occurred. It terms of market formations, it defined a significant point in the current inverted saucer which surrounds point 3 (pre envent point 3, point 3 and post point 3).
All of this provides a context for the huge movements involved in depressions.
when markets move from an odd harmonic dominance (see point 2 surroundings) to an even harmonic dominance (the inverted saucer formation we are in) monitoring, analysis, decision making, and timely action can become more demanding.
Therefore, it is incumbant on responsible people to be more alert and more sensitive to the plight of others.
Specifically, an inverted saucer is a collection of sub channels formed by new point 2's and 3's using fanning at first and then using VE's after the dominant sentiment changes in the inverted suacer. This is an anticipated series of subformations within a major limiting formation (inverted saucer).
Depressions can last for a generation (my definition). They have scope and bounds. Point 1 and point 2 have occurred. Point 3 will determine the slope of the general formation. This event (point 3) is part of an inverted saucer). after the sucer ends, the thrird movement of the Depression is underway. More VE's will happen and at some point 5, 7 or 10 years out they will cease and the Depression container will be occupied by two sub moves (long then short) wheby the Depression will end.
All the above is the order of events for the time ahead. The events are noise and anomally free.
Certainly, as previously stated, these comments are contrued as "predictions" for some people and, for others, they just describe an order of events. Most people would regard the comments as unreliable and just opinions.
I feel my commentary on what is what is appropriate. Here you see I did use the CW term for the future and how the future is commonly described by CW oriented people. CW "implies" that there are bases for their predictions. There is no overlap between my systemmic orientation and the orientation of CW.
Trader666 doen't do what I do in any sense. This, fortunately, makes it possible for me to differentiate where I come from relative to such a person as t666.
Currently, the contemporary situation is that the big money perpetrators are two cycles ahead of the legislative tasks and the regulators follow, in sequence behind the regulators. for those of the CW persuasion things will be getting difficult. On May 6th, most people were able to notice what happens when those who have fiduciary responsibilities abrogate those responsibilities. It is a time that is very advantageous to those who do strategies and routines that are designed for all situations. Everyone gets to choose and decide how they operate.