"putting the pieces to gether".
Exact Science
- Thread starter outsource
- Start date
Can't quantify the market. It's a chaos system (chaos theory) like weather. Think about it, the market is a pool made up on millions of individual people all acting irrational and driven by emotions like fear, greed, anxiety, etc. Good luck quantifying that.
But one thing you can do is to gauge the swings in crowd mood and bet against it with a higher probability of success on your side. Out of infinite iterations you will make money.
But one thing you can do is to gauge the swings in crowd mood and bet against it with a higher probability of success on your side. Out of infinite iterations you will make money.
Just 2 C about compounding. When you in the case of shares. I just think, what if you trading different price range of shares with each new cycle keeping the size of the order the same. For e.g. ,you start with $20 share>>>$50>>>$80>>>$120...etc. Same move percentage wise, same amount of shares,but different type of profit.
...should be aware of the behaviour of each new vehicle of course.
Quote from wst:
Can't quantify the market. It's a chaos system (chaos theory) like weather. Think about it, the market is a pool made up on millions of individual people all acting irrational and driven by emotions like fear, greed, anxiety, etc. Good luck quantifying that.
But one thing you can do is to gauge the swings in crowd mood and bet against it with a higher probability of success on your side. Out of infinite iterations you will make money.
Mostly everyone and about all financial corporations agree with your viewpoints.
My alternate view simply came about from my heritage, training and only professional job when I got out of college.
Simplistically I used the EMH and market data available to me. your view on people is verified by the Behavioral Finance folks.
I read the first 7 pages of Magee, 4Ed in 1957. and that summed it up for me.
When I pencilled in my charts, I only saw 10 iterations (cases) for price and two for volume. They were bounded by containers. So I chose the simplest container for each variable.
As you know most people are like you and unlike me.
How did I luck out?
You are a swing and mood gauger who bets and I turned out to be a case manager who uses certainty.
I read gerunds in Magee (credited to Dodd, Granville). I was an engineer/writer. So I illustrated the price and volume gerunds as my studying.and I pencilled graphs from WSJ daily data.
I got mood from volume and swings from price.
As an engineer; it was just filling in my lab manual and drawing 10% conclusions every few days. so I put 50% of my salary along side my 300 bucks of initial capital. in 1957.
I picked up my first Mercedes sports convertable in Kopenhagen in 1960. the permanent liscence plate withthe red K put me in the fast lane @ Monaco on the Med.
I do not argue against your conventional belief system except to say it is not useful.
I found that gerunds apply and there are ten cases for price. That is that and that is how it is.
Since I used boundaries of the cases on a chart for both variables. How markets work became a simple and very reliable systemic approach.
The subject of quantifying the markets is closed and an exact science for me.
Why can't a person take the published results of Behavioral Science and see that they are identical to Dodd, Granville.
Naturally, I had to "process" this stuff into an algorithm and just use paradigm and logic theory to flesh it out.
For over 50 years I have pondered how people with beliefs like yours find my performance in trading to be "unbelievable". By my standards I am normal as to taking the market's offer.
A standard does emerge from your belief set. I noticed it right off at the broker I used. I noticed it coming from the bankers and academics in the family I married into. The family's financial operations grew from a dairy farm adjacent to a wall a street is named after on an island in southern New York state. (SEE NYSR).
So anyway......
Stocks have limitations in three dimensions.
some conversation around ET is going beyond the usual "signal" levels of trading.
Effectivenss and efficiency are two good measures of optimization.
But then there are app of cap issues that come into the picture as compounding over the years creates wealth.
This means that planning takes on at least three forms: High yield, capacitiy limits, and rotating capital without limit. For me this goes back to before the webb, email and sites like ET.
Over the last 50 plus years new instruments and markets have also been created.
For trading the cases of P and V, the "natural cycles" stemmed from EOD data being the most prevalent for the application of science and precision.
Personally, I'm glad that the financial industry stage was so slow to develop concerning pool extraction. I am glad that the industry still does not make use of this venue anywhere.
I cap stock trading of the natural cycle to 100,000 shares and the trading rime frames boil down to daily, 30 minute and 5 minute. 20 partial fill going in and 30 coming out is the norm. This is determined by the block size on the T&S. The number od streams runs from 4 to 12 and adding them into the portfolio is done long before any one stream would be @ the 100K share capacity.
A quality Universe is avialble at the click of a button and adding the timing columns is done using the requirements of the "Unusual Volume" one pager. Unusual volume is a QCharts term probably originated by a programmer or administator who was CW oriented. Volume is a leading indicator of price and it would be unusual for a CW oroeinted platform provider to undersyand that. For me, when it showed up, it was just a convenience for trading when doing list sorting (Worden Bros) and hand drawing charts EOD) was still in vogue.
Ovrage of capital goes into the slowest cycle trading which is based on sector rotation and holds of 4 to 5 weeks. A gain of 4% a week is normal. The capital per stream is unlimited. the usual short list is formed from the established growth estimated in the 197 sector compounded by the best growth estimates over 36 months. The top performers in the overlap of these criteria is 250% a year estimated RS. RS stands for IBD's Relative Strength.
Getting down and dirty with high performance is leveraged trading with profits on about 80 worldwide idexes now availalbe. Daily, about 25 trades appear. as expected only a small multiple of market capacity per market is available. Overage is commuted to the PVT natural cycle trading.
So optimizing growing wealth is just, in financial industry terms, pool extraction. Capital is swept from the fastest fractals to the slowest by using rhe capacity of the markets to which the three stategies are applied: SCT to PVT to SSR.
The 10 P cases and 2 V cases of the gerunds, generate a two hypothesis paradigm. Carbap's logic theory guarantee's certainty under sufficiency and optimization occurs by making taking the market's offer efficient and effective.
In PVT and SSR, reversals are not possible since the carrier is so steep (Velocity is never negative). Rotation replaces reversal whereby periodicity provides the "precendent anricipation" (See tennat of Behavioral Finance).
In effect, the cake is baked.
A participant can "read" posts and find out just "where" a person is along the path or whether of not he has gone out on a limb to just vegetate for his duration of learning repated failure.
In trading, there is no kidding yourself about beliefs when success is involved. Most traders play games they create. This is not a functional use of the mind. the mind, naturally questions bullshit. The 'tell of bullshitting is, you guessed it, fear, anxiety and anger. See also the Lizard Syndrome and/or the Bohr Effect.
Being frozen during a trade often occurs as the CO - 2 levels in the brain rise 20% above ambient as suggested by Bohr. This is just another "tell that most traders are uneducated about.