Ewj: elliott wave

$XEU Wave 5.5 confirmed. This may end near measured move at 120 or 188.
$USD may be going UP as Wave 5.5 target may be 84.5 or 85.
Gold still lingers below MA(50) and $1600, forming a triangle. Next may be a big DOWN move? As fractals suggest.
Crude oil Wave 2)c may end near MA(200), resistance level and measured move around $96.
RSI may show SELL Signal when it cuts 70% level DOWN.
INDU and SPX Wave 2) may end soon.
MACDs may give SELL Signals soon.
 

Attachments

$XEU low = 1.204, $USD high = 84.1: can be considered "Targets reached"?
$USD Wave 5 confirmed. MACDs cut UP and DOWN as expected.
RSI should give 3 BUY and SELL Signals before trends change.
Wave 5s can end any time or extend indefinitely, next target may be 85 and 118.
Gold and Silver still stay below MA(50), should fall big soon as the triangular fractals suggest.
Crude Oil bear market rally might have ended. RSI first SELL Signal. MACD SELL Signal soon.
VIX may break MA(50) and MA(200) resistances soon.
 

Attachments

$USD fell hard at the end of a wave 5 near 84.5 target, it should be Wave 1)5.
Now may be wave 2)a and 2)b.
After Wave 2)c to near 81.25 $USD may go UP as Wave 3).
$XEU rebounded from 120 target but may not go UP to 127.5 because measured moved is 126.
Note: Divergences and RSI's and MACD's BUY and SEL Signals.
Gold may go UP to wave 4 at $1645 or MA(200) at $1658.
Silver may go UP to $28.5 and less likely to wave 4 near $30.
Crude Oil at $96.5 is possible, but Wave 2)c might have ended, and Crude Oil is going DOWN to below MA(50) at $85.9.
Note reverse Head and Shoulders pattern in VIX.
 

Attachments

INDU and SPX may be going UP as Wave 1]5)5 or I5]5).
Weekly MACDs support this count.
The problem is Wave 4) or 4] ended below Wave 1) or 1].
An alternative count is Wave IIc]5) or Wave 2]c)5, with wave c as an Ending Diagonal.
Dow Theory Non-confirmation supports this count.
TRAN may be going DOWN as Wave III1]3)3 or 3]1)3.3.
 

Attachments

Quote from mu200411:

INDU and SPX may be going UP as Wave 1]5)5 or I5]5).
Weekly MACDs support this count.
The problem is Wave 4) or 4] ended below Wave 1) or 1].
An alternative count is Wave IIc]5) or Wave 2]c)5, with wave c as an Ending Diagonal.
Dow Theory Non-confirmation supports this count.
TRAN may be going DOWN as Wave III1]3)3 or 3]1)3.3.
More...

I think the SPX weekly is forming a Three-Drive Pattern. Wave 4) ended below Wave 1) on the chart could be regarded as end of Drive-2.

So we still want to watch wave 5) (Drive-3) on the chart. Once Wave 5)5 (Drive-3) ends, we may see a significant correction.
 
$USD's and $XEU's DOWN and UP moves (82 and 124) fell short of measured move
targets (81.25 and 126).
$USD and $XEU may be going UP and DOWN as Wave 3).
INDU Wave 2)c may be an Ending Diagonal.
TRAN Wave 2) may be a triangle.
Gold is still in a triangle.
Crude Oil may find resistances at $95 and $95.63.
 

Attachments

Yesterday $USD trended UP as expected to 82.87 and $XEU DOWN to 1.224
then suddenly $USD fell to 82.44 and $XEU UP to 1.232.
What happened?
May be VIX needs to go DOWN to below 14 before Market tops like on March 19.
Or Equity Put/Call R20 has to go DOWN to .96 as in April, but it is right there now.
Note three Ending Diagonals, one in March, one now and one since July 2011.
There may be some false break before Market tops.
If this wave is Wave IV)B5]3)3.3:3, it should be the strongest move with high volume.
 

Attachments

Yesterday $USD made a false break above MA(50) then realized that it should not get above MA(50) so it fell back.
$XEU, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver did the opposite.
We should wait signals from MACD to get the right direction.
 

Attachments

You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top