Ewj: elliott wave

[mu200411]

Crude Oil falls big too .
May be the beginning of Wave Cc]5) which can go DOWN to $65 :eek: .

 

[mu200411]

TRAN hit lower low, Dow may confirm soon .
MACD turn DOWN from trigger line, no BUY Siganl.
RSI turned DOWN, may give a second false BUY Signal soon.

 

[mu200411]

SPX:
Wave V]IV)C3]2) ended near measured move, previous wave four and fibonaci advancement as expected .
Wave V]IV)C3]3)1 and 2 might have ended.
Wave V]IV)C3]3)3, the strongest wave, needs another panic to break Wave V]IV)C3]1) low .
Wave V]IV)C3]3)5 may go DOWN as low as 1020 or beyond :eek: .

 

[mu200411]

TRAN had a lower low, Wave V]IV)C3]3) is likely .
Dow may need another panic to break below V]IV)C3]1) , Aug 2011, low .
TRAN and Dow may need more panic to break below V]IV)C2]b) , July 2010, low .
INDU's and TRAN's Wave V]IV)C3]3) can go DOWN as low as 9400 and 3350 respectively :eek: .

 

[mu200411]

Gold's wave five extended again .
Next measured move will send Gold to $2000 .
The problem is sometimes wave five does not show up :eek: .
Just when everybody is waiting for it to unload to someone else .

 

[mu200411]

Silver count is best fit by an irregular correction UPWARDS .
61.8% retracement = $43.2.
Measured move = $43.6 and $46.
"W" pattern target = $44.
Silver UP move may end arround these number .

 

[ericmoles]

Mu, have you joined the Prechter Super Bear Count?

 

[mu200411]

ericmoles,
I once thought 2000-2007 Bear Market is a Cycle Degree wave.
Supercycle Wave ends with collapse of some countries or economic systems.
After the falls of so many Arab regimes,
2000-2011 Bear Market should be classified as a Supercycle Degree wave.
This Supercycle Wave IV) might have begun in 1987 and not ended yet.
Supercycle Bear Market may fall 50% - 70%.
Precther's Grand Supercycle Bear Market can fall (343.45-42.84)*100/343.45=87.5%

Quote from ericmoles:08-22-11 03:44 AM

Mu, have you joined the Prechter Super Bear Count?

Quote from mu200411:11-05-07 09:48 AM


Yes, Mup.

I think Elliott wrote somewhere about Market Top and Bottom.
At Market Bottom all or almost all stocks sink to the low together.
Market Top is more like FAN SHAPE, stock bubbles burst one by one begin with the weakest and the strongest sink last. We have seen Blue chip banks tank, Technology stocks may tank last.
This Cycle Wave IV began in December 1989 when Nikkei fell from ~40,000. It has not recovered half of that level by now. The Soviet Russia vanished from the map. Communist economy almost vanished too and may be gone for good at the end of Cycle Wave IV because of the oil price. Will the US burst too?

Quote from mu200411:08-18-07 07:58 PM


At the ends of Primary Wave corrections many individual investors have gone broke.
Cycle Wave usually ends with bankruptcies of many companies and some governments.
Supercycle Wave ends with collapse of some countries or economic systems.
Ruling classes changed at Grand-supercycle Wave Corrections.
Millennium Wave Corrections ended with the Fall of Empires and civilizations.

Quote from mu200411:08-19-07 01:16 AM


Both Bulls and Bears got killed during 8 - 17 August 2007.

Sentinel Management Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy (http://www.reuters.com/article/busi...Type=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=23&sp=true)

Slave Economy was gone during the Supercycle Wave II).

Capitalist Economy was abandoned in many countries during the final leg of Supercycle Wave IV) from 1946 - 1949, i.e.
People's Republic of Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, People's Republic of China , German Democratic Republic.
The second British Empire began to end on August 15, 1947 when India and Pakistan were granted independence by the United Kingdom.

The casualties of the newbie's Cycle Wave II from 1966 - 1974 are Ethiopia (1974), Cambodia, South Vietnam, Laos, Angola and Mozambique (1975).

Soviet Union Empire and many communist regimes collapsed during the 1987 - 1990 Bear Market. It may be the Cycle Wave IV or just the Primary Wave 4] of the Cycle Wave III?

 

[mu200411]

The last viable Bullish count is Intermediate Wave V)I5]5) failure in Diagonal Triangle type II .
And we are now in Primary Wave V)IIc] which may end near Primary Wave V)I2] end around SPX 1000 .
Weekly RSI may show BUY Signal after a rebound from near SPX 1000 .

 

[elovemer]

.... market might be
finishing up wave 1 down
-------------------------------------------------
wave 2 .... could retest 1250 or so
then get ready for the big drop
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just a possibility