Ewj: elliott wave

[mu200411]

Grand Supercycle Revisited:
Prechter's last Grand Supercycle began in 1932 and ended in 2000 or 2008.
Elliott's began in 1942 and will end in 2012.
Mine began in 1949 and the third Supercycle wave ended in 2000.
Cycle Wave A Jan 2000 - Oct 2002 = 3 years.
Cycle Wave B Oct 2003 - Oct 2007 = 5 years.
3 years Cycle Wave C would end this year 2011.
5 years Cycle Wave C would end in 2013.
8 years Cycle Wave C would end in 2016.
C1] = 15 months.
C2] = 28 months
C1]-C5] = 15 + 28 + 15 +28 + 15 = 101 months = 8 years.
If C3]-4]-5] accelerate and ended in 15 months, C1]-C5] will end in 58 months = 5 years.

 

[mu200411]

For Grand Supercycle Wave IV];
Forcing 3-3-3-3-3 into a terminal Wave IV]C)IIb]c) is very difficult.
We must count double wave five failure :eek: .
Now we may be in Wave IV]C)IIIa]1)4 or IV]C)IIIa]2),
these may move sideways for a month or so .

 

[mu200411]

VIX's small "w" confirmed then VIX rose as high as 39.25 .
If VIX's big "W" confirmed, VIX may go UP to 89.53 :eek: ,
then everyone will become fear of looking at a chart .
The only viable BULL cult is Wave V]V)I5] failure ,
and the Markets should not fall belowJune 2010's low.
Weekly MA(200) may lend some support.

 

[mu200411]

Wave five is treacherous, sometimes it extends, sometimes it fails, sometimes it does not show up at all.
AUD/USD's Wave 3]5)1.3: and Wave 3]5)1.5 didn't show up .
AUD/USD's Wave 5] may be a little failure, so Cycle I might have ended at 1.10799 not 1.12 as expected .
Cycle Wave II may rebound from here or 1.020 or 0.97 .

 

[blnbr]

As far as I'm concerned, the aggressive selling in the past 2 weeks shows that stocks has already entered a bear market. The weekly SPX is also forming a H&S pattern. This down trend may last a couple of months. I hope it will bounce back up in the next few days so I can find an entry.

 

[mu200411]

Wave 5 is treacherous, sometimes it doesn't show up, sometimes it fails, this time it extended, extends and will extend again .
Note: Gold's $1700 target reached .
Current , tentative, presumtive wave count = V]III)V5]5)5.5:5v .

 

[mu200411]

Crude Oil may be going DOWN as Wave V]IV)Cc]3)5 to $81.5 or $70 ,
or may be not :eek: .

Quote from mu200411:08-05-11 05:49 PM

This Crude Oil's rebound may be Wave Cc]3)4 .
Next may be Wave Cc]3)5 DOWN to $81.5 or $70 :eek: .
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3259184

 

[mu200411]

SPX's Wave V]IV)Cc]1)5 near measured move .
May rebound as Wave V]IV)Cc]2) from SPX 1122 .

 

[mu200411]

INDU's, SPX's, NASDAQ's, TRAN's and UTIL's Wave 5 near measured move, may rebound soon .
Note: RSI below 30% may give BUY Signal any time, the third time may be the real BUY signal .

 

[mu200411]

Crude Oil pass first target .
May be going to second target .