Ewj: elliott wave

[mu200411]

Based on the TIP above, Crude Oil's Primary Wave 1]-2]-3]-4] or Primary Wave a]-b]-c] are completed .
Now we may be in
Primary Wave 5] which will go UP to $150 :eek: , or
Cycle Wave C] which will go DOWN to $65 :eek: .
If World Economy cannot tolerate $150, Primary Wave 5] may not show up .
Crude Oil should fall below Primary Wave a] top @ $87.15 .
RSI should fall below 30.
If World Politics cannot tolerate $65, Cycle Wave C might have ended in 2009 .
Crude Oil should break Primary Wave 3] top @ $114.83 ,
MACD should show BUY Signal in a few weeks.

 

[blnbr]

One of the scenarios for SPX in my mind is like this,

 

[mu200411]

INDU's, SPX's, NASDAQ's, TRAN's and UTIL's MACD show SELL Signals ,
then rebound from measured move .
Equity Put/Call R20 = 0.90 near April 2010 low.

 

[mu200411]

SPX reboundes from 61.8% retracement .
May be Wave V]V)I5]1)1.5 which can go UP to 1390 ,
unless it is a wave five failure which may end at 1336 .
Note1: MACD's SELL Signal is a late signal, sometimes shows UP at the exact bottom :eek: .
Note2: Note interesting Fibonacci Relationships .

 

[mu200411]

Gold's and Silver's Hangman Candle Stick @ targets :eek: .
Not a good sign .
Crude Oil just under MA(50)
US Dollar index just above MA(50) .

 

[elovemer]

.... either monthly wave 3 is beginning....

or C of abc is petering itself out now

 

[mu200411]

Gold and Silver fell after Hangman Candle Stick as expected .
But there is no Evening Star pattern developed .
After 11 days run UP, there may be 3,5 or 8 days of decline .
Should not fall below previous high in order to get to new high .
Gold's and Silver's RSIs show SELL Signals :eek: .
Crude Oil stays around $100 since May ,
a break above $100 is bullish .
US Dollar Index supported by MA(50) and a trendline ,
a breakdown is bearish .

 

[mu200411]

INDU 5-waves UP, 3-waves DOWN first of which invaded .
There should be one more 5-waves UP to 12650 or 13180 .

 

[mu200411]

INDU's and TRAN's atypical Candle Stick Stars and SPX's and NASDAQ's Dark Cloud Cover , but
INDU's, SPX's and NASDAQ's MACDs give BUY Signal .
UTIL UP = Yield DOWN.
VIX near MA(200) and MA(50) = balanced centiment ?

 

[mu200411]

US Dollar Index DOWN , so
INDU, SPX, NASDAQ, TRAN and UTIL continues UP .
All's MACDs show BUY Signal except TRAN's .
UTIL is the first to confirm wave five with higher high, INDU should be next .