mu200411, hi -
i've been using elliot waves for a while, just found your postings, got a question... would appreciate your comments, if it has been covered before just point me to it.
here is the question: you have the move up since march 2009 labelled as an impulse wave (let's ignore the degree for now, or whether it ends in january or april). i just can't force any of the upward subdivisions of that into clean impulse counts.
1. the march-may and august-october 2009 periods both have a series of waves of similar size with higher highs and higher lows which overlap. impulses? i doubt it. (and yes, diagonals exist, but a diagonal as part of wave 3, right in the middle of the pattern?)
2. if the move since march is a 5, where is the peak acceleration wave 3 (or 3 of 3)? 2007-2009 is an obvious (textbook even) impulse; i think 2000-2002 and 2002-2007 are *not* impulses, they just don't have the same slow-fast-slow look with acceleration in the middle and impulse subwaves. 2009-now is not an impulse for the same reason.
3. zooming in, the move up since february 2010 doesn't count as a five either, it counts as an ab+hugely extended c, or wxyxz.
as they say, "if you hear hoofbeats, you first think it's a horse, not a zebra". so, while it is abstractly possible that the action since the march 2009 low is a first wave up, the odds are seriously against it in my view.
???.
.
