Ewj: elliott wave
- Thread starter mu200411
- Start date
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FYI . . .
A friend of a friend tells me that the latest short-term update from EWT has us still in P2 and that the trend remains up. They say that the entire rally from the wave "X" low on July 8th is not a classic wave pattern.
They suggest that the only way that this rally can be considered to be nearing an end is if you were to count "B" as a running flat that ended on Sept. 3rd.
The only problem with this is that "C" is only 6 days long so far. Rather short by anyone's standards when one considers that "A" was 22 days.
Perhaps we get the proverbial mid-week expiration "ramp" on Wednesday and option expiration on Friday becomes one great big churn job with lots of volume and not much movement - - - leading to a decline that begins in earnest the following Monday.
Just a few thoughts.
A friend of a friend tells me that the latest short-term update from EWT has us still in P2 and that the trend remains up. They say that the entire rally from the wave "X" low on July 8th is not a classic wave pattern.
They suggest that the only way that this rally can be considered to be nearing an end is if you were to count "B" as a running flat that ended on Sept. 3rd.
The only problem with this is that "C" is only 6 days long so far. Rather short by anyone's standards when one considers that "A" was 22 days.
Perhaps we get the proverbial mid-week expiration "ramp" on Wednesday and option expiration on Friday becomes one great big churn job with lots of volume and not much movement - - - leading to a decline that begins in earnest the following Monday.
Just a few thoughts.
Thanks Mark, blbnr
Good comment and channels
mu.
MACD cuts trigger line UP.
SPX new high, RSI no new high.
SPX near measured move.
Doji.
Danger zone for the Bulls.
Wave Psychology.
<table border=1>
<td>
Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.
</td>
<td>
Wave B: Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative.
</td>
</table>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle
Good comment and channels
mu.
MACD cuts trigger line UP.
SPX new high, RSI no new high.
SPX near measured move.
Doji.
Danger zone for the Bulls.
Wave Psychology.
<table border=1>
<td>
Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.
</td>
<td>
Wave B: Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative.
</td>
</table>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle
Wave 1]1)-2)-3)1-2-3.1-.2-.3 vesus Wave 2]a-b-c 
<table border=1><tr><td>Wave 1]1)-2)-3)1-2-3.1-.2-.3</td><td>Wave 2]a-b-c</td></tr><tr><td>
Wave 1 of 3: Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.
</td>
<td>
Wave C (of 2 of 2 of C): Prices move impulsively lower (higher) in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear (bull) market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.
</td>
<td>
Wave 2 (of C) : Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad (good). As prices retest the prior low (high), bearish (bullish) sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear (bull) market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive (negative) signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall (rise) in a three wave pattern.
</td>
</tr>
</table>
Any one got Elliott's Bear market psychology of wave 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c?
Please share.
<table border=1><tr><td>Wave 1]1)-2)-3)1-2-3.1-.2-.3</td><td>Wave 2]a-b-c</td></tr><tr><td>
Wave 1 of 3: Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.
</td>
<td>
Wave C (of 2 of 2 of C): Prices move impulsively lower (higher) in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear (bull) market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.
</td>
<td>
Wave 2 (of C) : Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad (good). As prices retest the prior low (high), bearish (bullish) sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear (bull) market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive (negative) signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall (rise) in a three wave pattern.
</td>
</tr>
</table>
Any one got Elliott's Bear market psychology of wave 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c?
Please share.
