Ewj: elliott wave

Possible Wave 1 extension pattern.

On my grandpa charts. Daily 1 year.

If since the 666 lows we are now in a bull 5 wave pattern. What if all of this rally so far is Wave 1? Then we should not correct past 38.2 retrace before entering into W3. As a bear Id like to see that level cracked, if not, may need to take a shot. I'm not putting too much into this except... looking for a 5 wave down from here, even a small one, would be pointless. There would be 3 waves not 5.



Edit, I can also break that into 2 separate counts. No new chart, mine stink anyways, you can the counts on gramps chart easy enough.

A few weeks back, remember that wedge break that people shorted? Including me, sighhhh. That would also have been a nice wave 1 extension wave. This next impulse would be a Wave 5 extension ending at the 930 high.

Important because then we are in a third impulse wave -down- and 5 waves possible. Either way in this weakness I guess I'm still looking for 829.5 warily, while nibbling short. If any commodities strong again tomorrow, I'm not playin heh. gl
 

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Quote from eustaer:

Thx for the feedback Ed. Just catching up now after the day.

Looking at your past post it is interesting to see that my more recent 1-5 Wave count would constitute your entire Wave 4. An interesting thought.

Now if your scenario does play out over time wouldn't it be fare to say that the S&P 500 would eventually head to lower lows at the end of Wave 5?

That said, how did u come up with your Wave 4 target of 965-995? Just curious....
--Do you have know of any websites that elaborate on technical target calculations re: EW.

-e
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eustaer,

Bear in mind that in EW, there are always alternate counts. The huge w4 scenario happens to be my preferred count. If this is so, then naturally, w5 would follow to a new low, unless it truncates.... :)

The other popular view is that SPX 666 marks the bottom of a huge w1 down and we are now in w2 up. Every EW counter would have to weigh the probabilties and choose for themselves their preferred view.

For targets, I use a combination of channels, ratios and retracements. However, you will need to understand the basic EW form and structure first. And remember that w5 is evil, cunning and treacherous! :D

I believe this thread ranks among the best websites that include EW calculations. I've been on this thread less than a year and I've learnt so much, especially from Mup.

It will be fruitful for any serious EW enthusiast to read through this thread. :)
 
Extended extended fifth in the daily VIX. Well, if it does decide to make one final drop, then my target is ~25.75.

VIX daily

eustaer,
In a ABC flat, the C wave is often 1.236 of A wave. That's how I arrived at 25.75. :)

If this corresponds with the 62% retracement @ 911 in the ES, then Winnie will drool for his hunny! :) :D
 

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There are a lot of SELL Siganls :) .
1. MACD cut ma DOWN.
2. RSI above 70 then below 70.
3. Fail to break 930 top.
4. Falling Star Candle Stick.
Many move SELL Signals to come :D .
5. 15SMA at Wednesday's low.
6. 20SMA at 890.
7. Supporting trendline at 890.
8. "M" pattern neckline at 878.
If all these supports are broken, they will turn into resistance :eek: .

Stocks set to tumble
Anxiety about economic outlook hits sentiment. Markets around the world slump.
At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Labor Department's weekly report on jobless claims comes out. A report on leading economic indicators comes out at 10 a.m. ET. A survey of regional manufacturing activity also comes out then.http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/21/markets/premarkets/index.htm

If Mr.Market survives all these, then see you at SPX 1000 :confused: .
 

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eustaer,

Bear in mind that in EW, there are always alternate counts. The huge w4 scenario happens to be my preferred count. If this is so, then naturally, w5 would follow to a new low, unless it truncates....

The other popular view is that SPX 666 marks the bottom of a huge w1 down and we are now in w2 up. Every EW counter would have to weigh the probabilties and choose for themselves their preferred view.

For targets, I use a combination of channels, ratios and retracements. However, you will need to understand the basic EW form and structure first. And remember that w5 is evil, cunning and treacherous!

I believe this thread ranks among the best websites that include EW calculations. I've been on this thread less than a year and I've learnt so much, especially from Mup.

It will be fruitful for any serious EW enthusiast to read through this thread.
__________________________________


popular view is that SPX 666 marks Wave 1?? wow!!! i guess look out below then if it plays out that way.....

i have been reading through the various thread. much to absorb. good stuff though.

thx again.
 
Three more SELL Signals triggered :) .

Symbol Last Change % Change High Low Volume Time
DJIA 8,311.09 -110.95 -1.32 8,416.15 8,287.91 63,860,805 10:11 AM
NASDAQ 1,710.92 -16.92 -0.98 1,719.58 1,704.84 394,786,492 10:11 AM
SP500 892.44 -11.03 -1.22 900.42 889.61 n/a 10:11 AM
 

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Quote from mu200411:

Three more SELL Signals triggered :) .
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Mu,
I think 881 in the ES may be a good place for a w2 bounce up for us bears to reload.... :D

VIX is climbing so aggressively it looks like we're in an impulsive third wave up :eek:

If all the sell signals are followed through, then I don't think we'll see the high of ES @ 929.50 for a loooooong time..... :)
 
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