Ewj: elliott wave
- Thread starter mu200411
- Start date
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Martin Armstrong's latest thoughts on Gold and Equities:
http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009...recent-thoughts-on-gold-and-general-equities/
Possibly looking for a high in April followed by a July low.
http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009...recent-thoughts-on-gold-and-general-equities/
Possibly looking for a high in April followed by a July low.
From comments at "Afraid to Trade:
"Which is it?! Ending diagonal or continued upside? I donât read the EW work but it sounds like theyâre just as puzzled as everyone else.â
Theyâve been having a tough time as we all seem to be having for the last several weeks.
The ending diag has now become their top count. To which they say:
âA solid close under the lower trendline of the ending diagonal structure will signal that itâs over. On Monday, this line crosses 848 in the S&P and 7960 in the DJIA. Because an ending diagonal is a relatively rare pattern, we give it very little leeway to âwork out.â In other words, the market should reverse in a sharp manner fairly soon, likely starting sometime on Monday, or something else is probably transpiring. Once the âsignalâ is provided that the market has reversed lower, the main stock indexes should swiftly retrace to the origin of the pattern, which in this case is 780 in the S&P and 7438 in the Dow.â
HOWEVER, as is always the case with EWI, they give the next best alternate view. Which, in this case, is for continued upside.
âA rally above 885 in the S&P and 8233 in the DJIA, the two levels that would eliminate the ending diagonal
interpretation, would raise the odds for this particular wave interpretation. If this happens, market optimism
should blossom, with major pronouncements that a new bull market is underway. We said to expect some
âzaninessâ in the most recent issue of EWFF and a third-wave rally should start to deliver. The CBOE
Volatility Index (VIX) continues to sharply decline, which is consistent with this particular view.
So, next weekâs market action could turn out to be quite volatile, either way. Stay tuned⦠â
I recommend the EWI subscription for anyone interested in EWT with the caveat that trying to dial in to short term moves still requires a great deal of market smarts. The EWI Short Term Update can be frustrating if one is looking for specific trades. However, it is a valuable resource for seeing how to apply EWT analysis on an on-going basis."
"Which is it?! Ending diagonal or continued upside? I donât read the EW work but it sounds like theyâre just as puzzled as everyone else.â
Theyâve been having a tough time as we all seem to be having for the last several weeks.
The ending diag has now become their top count. To which they say:
âA solid close under the lower trendline of the ending diagonal structure will signal that itâs over. On Monday, this line crosses 848 in the S&P and 7960 in the DJIA. Because an ending diagonal is a relatively rare pattern, we give it very little leeway to âwork out.â In other words, the market should reverse in a sharp manner fairly soon, likely starting sometime on Monday, or something else is probably transpiring. Once the âsignalâ is provided that the market has reversed lower, the main stock indexes should swiftly retrace to the origin of the pattern, which in this case is 780 in the S&P and 7438 in the Dow.â
HOWEVER, as is always the case with EWI, they give the next best alternate view. Which, in this case, is for continued upside.
âA rally above 885 in the S&P and 8233 in the DJIA, the two levels that would eliminate the ending diagonal
interpretation, would raise the odds for this particular wave interpretation. If this happens, market optimism
should blossom, with major pronouncements that a new bull market is underway. We said to expect some
âzaninessâ in the most recent issue of EWFF and a third-wave rally should start to deliver. The CBOE
Volatility Index (VIX) continues to sharply decline, which is consistent with this particular view.
So, next weekâs market action could turn out to be quite volatile, either way. Stay tuned⦠â
I recommend the EWI subscription for anyone interested in EWT with the caveat that trying to dial in to short term moves still requires a great deal of market smarts. The EWI Short Term Update can be frustrating if one is looking for specific trades. However, it is a valuable resource for seeing how to apply EWT analysis on an on-going basis."
Since there are so many conflicting counts on the ES / SPX, I thought perhaps Mr VIX would give us a better clue where we are.....
We got that little uptick in VIX as expected, but it should not go above 40.
The big drop in the indexes should start only after VIX hits a new low below 33.68 or revisits this low one more time.
CBOE VIX Daily
We got that little uptick in VIX as expected, but it should not go above 40.
The big drop in the indexes should start only after VIX hits a new low below 33.68 or revisits this low one more time.
CBOE VIX Daily
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