Ewj: elliott wave

[elovemer]

....swing bears below 88

 

[ed]

Not really sure whether the SPX has completed a ABC down or a 1-2-3 down.

So it is best left for the "traffic lights" to do their work....

Above 793.84 and the odds of a continued upward move increases...

SPX 30min

Edit:
Problem posting on ET again....

 

[mu200411]

This return move should not be taken lightly .
It can signify a Bear Trap :eek: , if the red line is crossed UP .
If not there may be a measured move DOWN to Wave .2 to complete the "M" pattern .

Edit :03-31-09 01:02 AM
The return move is an a-b-c not a 1-2-3-4-5 .
A measured move DOWN is more likely now .

 

[Landis82]

21-day MA on the SPX is coming through right around the 781 handle.

Looks like 5-waves down from the 2:15PM highs . . . 3PM bounce?

 

[Ralphho]

Hello,

I'm dutch guy, starting with Eliotte wave analysis.
As there is no good discussion website in the Netherlands, I started searching and ended here.

I enclosed my short term view (AEX, is following the S&P). I now conclude that now starts a [5] th wave, of a {5} th wave of larger degree of a <3>th wave of larger degree (started in july 2007). I don't know what is the wave of larger degree, as some people are saying that the Super-cycle wave V ended in 2000, so that we are now in a new ended also ended the millenium wave.

Now I don't know what will happen after the end of of this [5]th wave. I would expect a correction wave <4> (up), wich will take around 2 - 4 years.

I'm very interested in the expectation which you have and if this analysis makes any sense. Also do I wonder if any one knows what pretcher is expecting.

I summarized the following:

Millenium wave I] Egypt civilization - 1000 B.C.
Millenium wave II] 1000 B.C. – 594 B.C. (Greek dark ages)
Millenium wave III] 594 B.C. – 476 A.D. (Roman Empire)
Millenium wave IV] 476 A.D. – 1000 A.D (European dark ages)
Millenium wave V] 1000 A.D. – 2000 A.D.

Centenary Wave I] 1000 A.D. – 1300 A.D. (opkomst pauzen)
Centenary Wave II] 1300 A.D.- 1400 A.D.
Centenary Wave III] 1400 A.D. – 1700 A.D. (Ages of kings)
Centenary Wave IV] 1700 A.D. – 1776
Centenary Wave V] 1776 A.D. – 2000 A.D. (Modern ages)

Super-cycle wave I] 1783 – 1835 = 52 years long
Super-cycle wave II] 1835 – 1857 = 22 years long
Super-cycle wave III] 1857 – 1929 = 72 years long
Super-cycle wave IV] 1929 – 1942 = 13 years triangle wave
Super-cycle wave V] 1942 – 2000/2012/2070 = 58 years long

Looking forward to some comments!
Ralph

 

[Ralphho]

Hello,

Forgot the attachment, herewith.

Ralph

 

[Landis82]

Quote from ericmoles:

I'm on a trial of both EWI and NeoWave. They have interesting opposing opinions:

Eric, what does EWT and Glenn Neely say after today's decline?

Thanks.

 

[mu200411]

Fifth subwave of fifth wave of Wave 2.c .
Cross the green line may be a BUY .
New low should be a SELL .

Ralphho,
According to Elliott we are in Grand Supercycle Wave III] or IV] .
DOWN Wave from 2007 may be Grand Supercycle Wave IV] if Grand Supercycle Wave II] is a 13-years Triangle,
or Supercycle Wave III]IV) if Grand Supercycle Wave II] is a 21-years Triangle .
mu.

 

[ericmoles]

Hey Landis, I was out of town and had to work today. I'll update you on their opinions tomorrow 3/31. Beers and bed tonight.

 

[Ralphho]

Quote from mu200411:

Fifth subwave of fifth wave of Wave 2.c .
Cross the green line may be a BUY .
New low should be a SELL .

Ralphho,
According to Elliott we are in Grand Supercycle Wave III] or IV] .
DOWN Wave from 2007 may be Grand Supercycle Wave IV] if Grand Supercycle Wave II] is a 13-years Triangle,
or Supercycle Wave III]IV) if Grand Supercycle Wave II] is a 21-years Triangle .
mu.

Hello mu200411,

So in situation one, where this bearmarket is the grand supercycle wave IV, the large down sentiment will stay a while. This will probably be cycle wave III, which is probably almost finnished? So shortly a bullmarket of a couple of years will start, after which a cycle wave 5 startes which will bring us down again.

In situation two, where we are in grand supercycle wave III wave IV the bearmarket is probably almost over and the super cycle V will start in a couple of years. This will bring us to new highs

Does anyone knows what Prechter thinks about this matter (or is this what prechter says). I know he said in a interview in 2008 that this bearmarket will stay for 2 - 4 years.

Ralph