Ewj: elliott wave
- Thread starter mu200411
- Start date
Mup
What is your Wave e's target?
mu.
The Buy Signal was a good one
The Bulls tried to push UP to the Line of 23.6% Retracement but was blocked by the 50-SMA guys :eek: .
Crossing the Line of 23.6% Retracement will be a Buy Signal and the confirmation of the "W" pattern which may end near 2009' high
.
Wave 4)a and Mup's Wave e will be big obstacles to the Wave 4)c.5's target
What is your Wave e's target?
mu.
The Buy Signal was a good one
The Bulls tried to push UP to the Line of 23.6% Retracement but was blocked by the 50-SMA guys :eek: .
Crossing the Line of 23.6% Retracement will be a Buy Signal and the confirmation of the "W" pattern which may end near 2009' high
.Wave 4)a and Mup's Wave e will be big obstacles to the Wave 4)c.5's target
Quote from mu200411:02-06-09 05:48 PM
The Bulls managed to push UP to the Line of 38.2% Retracement again.
Crossing the blue resistance trendline UP will be a Buy Signal
Crossing the blue supporting trendline DOWN will be a Sell Signal
blnbr,
This is the reverse of an old adage in trading about buy the rumour sell the news .
mu.
This is the reverse of an old adage in trading about buy the rumour sell the news
.mu.
Quote from blnbr:02-07-09 12:05 AM
Checking on the Nonfarm payrolls announcement days for the last several months, SPX rallied each of these days following the very bad reports and closed higher. The rallies continued on the next day (Monday). This has become a pattern for the Nonfarm report days lately. But Past performance does not guarantee future results though
Mr.Market is always happy to give us problems in wave counting 
.
At measured move, there is an extra 5-waves :eek: ,
so we are not sure whether Wave 4)c.3 or Wave 4)c.5 has ended
.
The three red lines will be Sell Signals , the last one (8156, 851,1549) may be doom for the Bulls 
.
The green line (8360, 870, 1594) will be Buy Signal, where upside potential is not so great .
.At measured move, there is an extra 5-waves :eek: ,
so we are not sure whether Wave 4)c.3 or Wave 4)c.5 has ended
.The three red lines will be Sell Signals
, the last one (8156, 851,1549) may be doom for the Bulls .The green line (8360, 870, 1594) will be Buy Signal, where upside potential is not so great
.Quote from mu200411:
blnbr,
This is the reverse of an old adage in trading about buy the rumour sell the news
mu.
"Buy the rumour sell the news" may be part of the reasons in this case. I said "part" because there have been some factors do not fit into the rule very well.
For one thing, if the released number was better or in line with the forecast and the market rallies, thatâs quite normal. But the market has been rallied on worse-than-expected news each time in the recent months, and itâs kind of strange to me. Sometime we may see the market rallied on worse-than-expected news, but that often means a bull market is under way and the price should be trending up. But what we have seen is the market still trending down in the recent months⦠So I would look at some more reasons for this.
Fortunately, you guysâ EW forecasts are so good, we donât have to worry about those things too much
blnbr,
In the Bull Market
In the Old Days, there were big guy and small guys.
When the big guy accumulated enough shares, he sent out rumour that the stock would rise to attract the small guys. The best rumour was the price tick.
When TA guys saw price rise they began to buy and made the price rise further. The small guys seeing price rise flocked in. Rumour spreaded. Volume rose.
When the price and volume were right for the big guy he sent out news to confirm the rumour. Biggest number of small guys jumped into the boat, unaware that the boat is sinking.
At that moment the big guy unloaded all his shares and never returned to that stock again.
In the Bear Market
The Owners (long term investers) and the Fund Managers (who could not show 100% cash) could do nothing but hold on to their shares.
But only at the time when the shares were counted.
At other times they let the shares float (sink) in the Market.
When the Market conditions were bad they distributed the maximum number of shares they could, planning to get all back at a good low price.
They chose the time when maximum number of shares were dumped or forced sold, i.e., the selling climax.
The maximum number of shares could be sold in the selling climax because there were buyers for those shares.
When those floated (sunk) shares returned to the rightful owners who didn't want to sell in the first place, there were no more shares available in the Market, so the price naturally rose.
Many times the selling climax happened when a bad news was disclosed.
Why this happens again and again?
The game is old but the players are always new
mu.
Edit:
Today the naked short sellers may do the job.
In the Bull Market
In the Old Days, there were big guy and small guys.
When the big guy accumulated enough shares, he sent out rumour that the stock would rise to attract the small guys. The best rumour was the price tick.
When TA guys saw price rise they began to buy and made the price rise further. The small guys seeing price rise flocked in. Rumour spreaded. Volume rose.
When the price and volume were right for the big guy he sent out news to confirm the rumour. Biggest number of small guys jumped into the boat, unaware that the boat is sinking.
At that moment the big guy unloaded all his shares and never returned to that stock again.
In the Bear Market
The Owners (long term investers) and the Fund Managers (who could not show 100% cash) could do nothing but hold on to their shares.
But only at the time when the shares were counted.
At other times they let the shares float (sink) in the Market.
When the Market conditions were bad they distributed the maximum number of shares they could, planning to get all back at a good low price.
They chose the time when maximum number of shares were dumped or forced sold, i.e., the selling climax.
The maximum number of shares could be sold in the selling climax because there were buyers for those shares.
When those floated (sunk) shares returned to the rightful owners who didn't want to sell in the first place, there were no more shares available in the Market, so the price naturally rose.
Many times the selling climax happened when a bad news was disclosed.
Why this happens again and again?
The game is old but the players are always new
mu.
Edit:
Today the naked short sellers may do the job.