Ewj: elliott wave

[mu200411]

It looked like a Trench Warfare between the Bulls and the Bears.
Bulls' territory was below the Line of 61.8% retracement.
Bears' territory was above the Line of 38.2% retracement.
The Bears pushed DOWN, the Bulls pushed back UP.
The Bears pushed DOWN again, the Bulls managed to push back to the Line of 50% retracement.
The Bears pushed DOWN once again, the Bulls pushed back to just above the Line of 50% retracement once more.

 

[blnbr]

Quote from mu200411:

The good news is 4)a-b-c may end at measured move ,
3)= 7449.3799 741.02 1295.48
4)a= 9026.4102 918.85 1602.92
4)b= 8364.0596 857.07 1493.45
4)c= 9941.0899 1034.9 1800.89,
or at wave four of a lesser degree ,
3)4 9653.9502 1007.51 1785.84,
or at any fibonacci ratio .
The bad news is Wave 4) can end any time from now .

Today I followed the textbook rules and labeled the SPX daily chart myself. Then I found out your labeling on Jan. 3 is exactly the same as mine (from March 08 on), except the last B labeling is different due to the recent price movements.

Let’s see if this alternative is good or not.

 

[ed]

Quote from blnbr:

Today I followed the textbook rules and labeled the SPX daily chart myself. Then I found out your labeling on Jan. 3 is exactly the same as mine (from March 08 on), except the last B labeling is different due to the recent price movements.

Let’s see if this alternative is good or not.

blnbr,

Thanks for sharing your chart! It is always nice to see different views / counts. Keep them coming.

I share the same count as you. I find wave 4s often throw a little more challenge given the multitude of possibilities --- flats, triangles and combination corrections. So wave 4 often morphs into patterns we least expect...

But there is no absolute right or wrong charts since Mr Market ALWAYS decides where he wants to go

So let's see what happens...

 

[ed]

Quote from mu200411:
Seven threes : 3-3-3-3-3-3-3 .
The second red line still holds .

Quote from ed:
Sometimes the "d" wave morphs into a triangle itself....

So it'll take two more to make a 9 and complete the triangle...

It's amazing how clarity surfaces after some rest (...and a few beers of course... I'm sure Landis would agree.... )

Well, here's my thoughts in the SPX 30min. Special thanks to Mu for pointing out the seven-threes....

SPX 30min

 

[mu200411]

Happy New Year ed, Landis, elovemer, blnbr, Mup ..........
Will "a buy-the rumour, sell-the-fact reaction" or "Sell on rumour, buy on bad news" work this time? .
What's about sentiment? And VIX? .
I may not be able to post for four days .
mu.

Earnings, economy - here comes 'terrible'
The week ahead: Investors gear up for a deluge of weak earnings and the biggest plunge in GDP in 26 years.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/25/markets/sunday_weekahead/index.htm

Quote from Technical Analysis ›› VIX testing resistance >> reno4nook:01-24-09 06:57 AM
the VIX index is testing resistance around the 46 level on the 60min chart.
There have been 4 recent attempts to break through that have been rejected.
Now a 5th try will probably happen on Monday.
Usually when there are multiple attempts to break resistance in a descending wedge, the attempt eventually succeeds.

 

[Mup]

Just popping in to say happy 牛 new year.

I'll raise a glass of mount gay

 

[blnbr]

Thanks Ed, Mu.

I'm a newbie in EW and learning from the textbooks and more importantly I'm learning from you guys here.

SPX seems to be breaking out from the triangle/consolidation this morning. Oil is also moving up.

Sorry to learn that Mu may be absent for 4 days. Hope everything is fine with you and come back to post soon.

 

[Mup]

Not back in the office yet but the weather is not the best so a quick look at the SPX running triangle option...

240min SPX )
Gung hay fat choy

 

[blnbr]

Quote from Mup:

Not back in the office yet but the weather is not the best so a quick look at the SPX running triangle option...

240min SPX )
Gung hay fat choy

The breakout is from a relatively loose pattern. So we'll be treating it a bit more carefully.

Gung hay fat choy

 

[Mup]

Bears are tring their luck on the +53 ALt

Globex 240 (ES 24h)

Last lesser Alt on the 5min was -8.5 so they need a close below 841 to change anything....

As always if lesser Alts hold expect a move back up, if they don't expect the move to accelerate next higher degree one....