Ewj: elliott wave

[mu200411]

There was a higher high which favored Wave 4)c.1:3iii count. Wave 4)c.1:3 showed five subwaves, there may be a correction to Wave 4)c.1:3iv then an UP move as Wave 4)c.1:5 .
Alternative Count #2: a more rapid move.
It may be Wave 4)c.1:1-:5, the next correction may be Wave 4)c.2 and the next UP move may be Wave 4)c.3 .
Alternative Count #3: a Bearish count.
The last UP move may be Wave 4)b.b:c. There may be DOWN move as Wave 4)b.c to the lower border of the trading channel .
Too many alternative counts .
Check the red lines for Buy and Sell signals .

Quote from mu200411:
.... Note 2: 12-31-08 02:22 AM
Next higher high, i.e., a Buy signal, favors Wave 4)c.1:3iii count.
Next lower low, i.e., a Sell signal, favors Wave 4)b.c count.

 

[mu200411]

The most Bearish count is a completed Wave 4) and we are going DOWN as Wave 5). This count is out when there is a higher high or the red line is broken.

 

[bathrobe]

I am new to elliott wave theory, currently reading all I can and doing research on the web.

My question to those of you who are more experienced with elliott wave and who have put it to practice is their a software program that works or is is the hand count the way to go.

Thanks in advance and sorry for the beginner question regarding EW.

 

[ed]

Quote from bathrobe:

I am new to elliott wave theory, currently reading all I can and doing research on the web.

My question to those of you who are more experienced with elliott wave and who have put it to practice is their a software program that works or is is the hand count the way to go.

Thanks in advance and sorry for the beginner question regarding EW.

Hi bathrobe,

Happy New Year and welcome to Mu's thread.

I have been hand-counting for a while and have also enjoyed software counts posted graciously by elovemer in this thread.

I don't think I can rule out either count nor state which is superior.

The most important thing about EW is the availability of alternate counts. The most likely becomes the preferred count. Should it go wrong, then we fall back on the next preferred count. Only Mr Market is correct all the time

If you take a look at the below link, under the header "Applying the Wave Principle", it should give a better idea of what I'm saying

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/capsum.htm

 

[ed]

Quote from ed:


The SPX weekly still seems to be time-wasting somewhere in wave (4)....

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2234109

SPX weekly

Seems like the b-wave is done. Could the c-wave up have started? Above 918.85 would be more likely to be the c-wave, else the SPX is still stuck in a possible b-wave.

 

[elovemer]

possible high time pivot this 12.30...01.30 hour

 

[stinkyfelix]

Quote from ed:

Only Mr Market is correct all the time

You are so right, but I must say that Mu, Elo, Mup and the rest of the gang do a great job with the wave counts!

 

[ed]

Thanks Felix

Quote from ed:

Seems like the b-wave is done. Could the c-wave up have started? Above 918.85 would be more likely to be the c-wave, else the SPX is still stuck in a possible b-wave.

Well, the SPX did close above 918.85. Actually it hit about 50% of the a-wave @ 934.73 before falling back.... The odds for a continued upmove remains pretty high.

Here's an updated SPX weekly chart with some possible c-wave targets to lookout for :
0.500 934.69
0.618 953.00
0.786 979.08
0.886 994.60
1.000 1,012.30
1.236 1,048.93

SPX weekly

 

[Landis82]

Quote from ed:

Well, the SPX did close above 918.85. Actually it hit about 50% of the a-wave @ 934.73 before falling back.... The odds for a continued upmove remains pretty high.

Thanks Ed.
Good stuff!

Here's an article that I came across last month from Corey Rosenblum's website, "Afraid to Trade" where one reader compares the current Elliott Wave pattern to that of 2002.

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/stepping-back-in-time-elliott-wave-count-of-2000-to-2003/

Interesting Weekend Reading.
Indeed, a great exercise!

 

[elovemer]

.... whether wave 3 is complete ... or maybe wave 5 .....
..... either way .... we should stay on top of the structure of this correction....
... on daily chart....
....this 3rd push was the trick to get thru the 50 sma .....
....for me .... the next bigger upside target is 100sma
.... don't like to try to predict.... but we most likely may need to consolidate above the 50sma before moving higher....
...sorry blokes about the long post here...

...another note.... since the massive gap down on daily chart on october 6 .... today's move breaks the trendline connecting the tops of all price action since the gap.....
.... in addition with today's move.... we exceed the ALT size of the biggest correction to date....that correction started on march 17, '08
...according to mupster's international dictionary, if we hold and continue above this level .... it (also) suggests the change to higher degree wave structure that we already suspect....