Ewj: elliott wave

Quote from ericmoles:

How do you know this for a fact. I have read the May, June, and July EWT, and I haven't seen any type of alternate count other than we are in a wave C down of which waves 1 and 2 are completed.

If there is an alternate count, I haven't seen it. If you have seen it, where might I find it so I don't get suckered into one view, the short side.

Thanks
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If you subscribe to online EWI, where they provide hour to hour ( as well as Daily, Weekly, and Monthly ) counts, you will see that U.S equity analyst, Robert Kelley is looking at both counts.
 
Quote from mu200411:

Short resistance trendline break :) . New high in NASDAQ :D .
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Crude cracking and going negative after trading as high as 121.77 and now at 118.40

Now providing support to the SPX.
:)
 
Thanks Landis82. I'm not a subscriber of the hour to hour forecast, and I haven't heard any of John's forecasts.

Are you saying that he doesn't agree for sure that 2000 was wave V up and Oct 2007 was a B of an expanded flat?

What is his alternate count?

Interesting stuff....
 
Quote from ericmoles:

Now, I just need to figure a way to incorporate wave theory into a trading plan to limit my risk.

Any suggestions? What has worked for others?
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It seems like you have not read / studied the EW theory :)

As you read, you will get plenty of ideas. I think it is most important to develop your personal conviction in your preferred and alternate counts.

As soon as you have done so, limiting risk becomes a simple step of obeying the EW rules, such as, for example, wave 2 never retracing more than wave 1.

Page 491 of this thread has recommendations of some very good books on EW.
 
Well Ed, things aren't always as they seem.:) I have read EWP one time. I can't say that I have 'studied' the wave principle, but I have a basic understanding.

As far as a trading plan, I even understand the basics of stops based on breaking the rules. ie wave 4 can't retrace into wave 1. The start of wave one can't be retraced in an impulse, etc.

But, if even the pros can't agree on the long term direction, it seems difficult to make money with the theory.

You could risk a fixed percentage each time you have an opinion, but each time that opinion changes, you lose. And if you keep losing and then your long term opinion changes, you have lost again. Now you switch directions and hope your opinion doesn't change again.

One things for sure, I need to risk smaller amounts until I can prove the utility of the principle.

Staying tuned...
 
Quote from ericmoles:

Thanks Landis82. I'm not a subscriber of the hour to hour forecast, and I haven't heard any of John's forecasts.

Are you saying that he doesn't agree for sure that 2000 was wave V up and Oct 2007 was a B of an expanded flat?

What is his alternate count?

Interesting stuff....
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He says that the evidence for BOTH counts is "mixed" and is therefore uncertain as to what is happening currently.

He's not sure if Wave 5 ended late last year, or if it was simply the end of Wave (3) of Wave 5 . . . meaning that the sell-off back down into this year is some sort of an A-B-C Wave (4) and Wave (5) of 5 is still to follow.

Hard to believe that he is that uncertain, and hence sure gives you something to pause and think about as it relates to EWT in general.
 
Looks like we broke the 38.2% retracement and are now heading for the 50% at around 1269.50 SPX

61.8% lies down around 1264 and change.
 
... the reason why i said this was because daily bar was small range, on the edge, and low volume.... (along with time cycle i mentioned before)
.... consolidation is good..... as long as above last daily pivot....
Quote from elovemer:
..... yesterday (wed) ... could be weakness.... for a pullback.....
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