Ewj: elliott wave

Mup,

OIH sold all the way down to 210.00, but looks like it is trying to head back up above the 10 period MA on the 30-minute chart. Got close to a 61.8% retracement of the rally up from last Thursday's low under 203.
 
This post will certainly stimulate some interesting debate! I have attached a chart of the decline in the S&P from the October high, labeled it with my wave count and indicated with red lines the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels. The rally from 3/17 to 4/7 was 130 points and I have labeled it as wave A. Adding 130 points to the 4/7 low which I have labeled as B projects the completion of wave C in the 1454 - 1507 range. 1454 also happens to be the 61.8% retracement level. I believe the S&P will continue to rally into the 1454 - 1507 area and I will then be looking to short it.

I am bearish for the following reasons: The rally from the 3/17 lows has been on very weak volume, the economy has slowed, consumer confidence is at multi year lows, the credit crisis is ongoing, foreclosures are increasing, and real estate values continue to decline.

I would enjoy hearing from both the bulls and the bears...
Robert
 

Attachments

Same Analysis. Same Status. Same Strategy.
Quote from mu200411:

Status:
Zero position.
Strategy:
Prepare to play the short side of the Market when the last supports fail. Buy if there is a higher high at support.
INDU is at 38.2% retracement.
SPX is at wave four of a lesser degree and the reverse Head and Shoulders neckline.
3 complete waves from the last high, may be a-b-c or 1-2-3.
More...
 
Hi Rob its been a while :)

Count is vaild, and most are looking to get a move down to complete your lesser B , before going up into the final C to complete the larger degree (B or X) wave.. Landis posted a similar count...

We could how ever have completed the corrective move back up of a larger (B) or (X ) if the pattern of the March low was a triangle..:)

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1929794

I'd post some earlier charts but there seems to be a problem with ET at the moment as half of the attachments are missing when you click on them..:(

I'll take a look at GE ammo :)
 
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