Ewj: elliott wave

[mu200411]

Futures +98, 9.50, 22.75?
Strategy.
Open short "Long position" at open on Monday. Reverse position after a 200, 20, 40 points move up. Reverse again after 100, 10, 20 point correction. Close short "Long position" at measured move.
Close long "Short position" and enter again after second closing of short "Long position" to reduce cost.

 

[Landis82]

Mu, can you post an HOURLY SPX count for us?

Thanks!

 

[mu200411]

Status.
Short "long position" opened at open, and reversed after
End of 5)1.1:1ii=12544.1104, 1394.83, 2428.8501
End of 5)1.1:1iii.i=12757.5, 1414.29, 2475.8701
Up move of 213.3896, 19.46, 47.02 points and reversed again after
End of 5)1.1:1iii.ii=12693.04, 1406.51, 2457.36
Retracement of 64.46, 7.78, 18.5101 points.
Short "long position" was closed at fifth wave although measured move was not reached.
Long "Short position" closed but not re-entered.
Hold long "Long position".

Quote from mu200411:

Strategy.
Open short "Long position" at open on Monday. Reverse position after a 200, 20, 40 points move up. Reverse again after 100, 10, 20 point correction. Close short "Long position" at measured move.
Close long "Short position" and enter again after second closing of short "Long position" to reduce cost.

 

[mu200411]

Strategy.
The Market may go sideways in a triangle.
Plan to close long "Long position" if the Market tank and sit on the side line.

 

[mu200411]

Long "Long position" closed after rebound and there was a lower low. Short position was also opened. Re-open long position and close short position at measured move when there was a higher high. Set target at triangle upper trendline. Set stop at the last low.

 

[mu200411]

Plan to close long position if the descending diagonal triangle fail.

 

[mu200411]

Landis,
The data may be too short
Mu.

Quote from Landis82:

Mu, can you post an HOURLY SPX count for us?

Thanks!

 

[Landis82]

Yep, 1378.70 SPX from Jan. 9th needs to hold in order to confirm your pattern, above.

 

[elovemer]

...5 in the works ?

Quote from elovemer:
...1...2.... so far....
Quote from elovemer:
...looks like another 5 waves down .... after the 3 waves up ... on the daily ....
.... is still possible......

 

[Landis82]

Quote from elovemer:

...5 in the works ?

Just "eye-balling" the above E-Mini chart looks like 5 = 1 at roughly 100 points from the top of (4) thus targeting 1335 in the futures.

This coincides with my SPX chart ( see below ) that targets 1324 in the cash index. This will end Wave 4, and launch eventually be the launching pad ( if 1324 holds ) to end Wave 5 at the 1647 level.

From a good friend of mine, and I quote:

"The graphic below is a matrix I did originally in April of 2006. The market has continued to follow along the projected lines and has maintained the timing.

The current configuration suggests that the S & P 500 is likely to trade with a downward bias into March. It further suggests based upon if the S & P can hold the 1324 level during this period that it will raise the probability for a bottoming pattern to form. The pattern suggests if this level holds a bottom, a 8 to 11 month rally should unfold into January of ’09. ( there is a Bradley cycle on December 14th ).

The upward target for this pattern is the 1647 level or a projected gain of 323 points to the upside or 24 percent gain if the 1324 level is reached.

Until the pattern reveals some more of the characteristics it is going to be difficult to determine when a rally is likely to begin. However, the below graphic gives the pattern,(on a time basis), a window of March to June to be completed. ( the Bradley cycle has a minor turning point on March 8-9, with the more significant turning point on June 7th ).

This suggests that a rally will begin that should run through the elections and push the market to all time highs. This projection will only be valid it the market remains above the 1324 level during this period.

If the 1324 level is penetrated then the market will likely continue the decline toward the 1260/1226 before a low would be reached. If this event were to unfold, it would also negate the rally to new highs and suggests that we have entered into a major bear market. There is current is only a 10 percent probability for the market to penetrate the 1324 level.

The matrix below suggests that once this current market pattern is completed that there should be a drastic improvement in market conditions. This sets up just like the 2004 market where the market bottomed and rallied through the presidential elections. But as I mentioned earlier if 1324 is penetrated then all bets are off for the big rally."