Ewj: elliott wave

I repeat:

DO NOT MAKE THE MISTAKE OF THINKING THAT YOU CAN TRADE A THIN, "HOLIDAY MARKET".

The Trend is Your Friend.
And prices more often than not "vacuum" to levels during thin, Holiday Trade.
Counter-trend trades DO NOT WORK in this kind of atmosphere.

Merry Xmas!
:)
 
Short position opened after wave five and "M" pattern just before the close. Set target at 100, 10, 20 correction. Set stop at the last high. Just a gambling.
Merry X-mas. :D
 
... i like your analysis....
... i am also getting some big upside projections.....
... question is... whether we will get another down before breaking out of the sym triangle....
..... cheers....
...edit... my 2nd daily 5 wave down scenario where the 5th wave peek-a-boos out of the sym tri to the downside would attract maximum shorts....
.... looks like it might not happen though
Quote from rtstrading:
Yet another potential outcome for the market.
More...
 
December 27th, 2007.
Year End Reflection.
Our Elliott Wave Trader demonstrated two part of his career.
Part 1. 09-11-07 to 11-23-07 was trend-following trading part.
Part 2. 11-26-07-12-26-07 was counter-trend trading part.
This first gave fair result the latter mediocre one.

Let’s take a look at what’d happened.
Our Elliott Wave Trader got it right until 11-24-07, see quote.
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Posted by mu200411 on 11-24-07 12:56 PM:
Status:
Hold long "Short position" and a gambling "Long position".
Scenario 1.
Intermediate Wave 4)c ended Wednesday 21, 2007 as a running correction 3-3-3, or a double zigzag. Intermediate Wave 5) began Friday 23, 2007 with 181.84, 23.93, 34.45 points jump.
Strategy 1.
Turn the gambling "Long position" into a long "Long position". Find an appropriate exit point for the long "Short position".
Scenario 2.
Friday 23, 2007 rebound was the second right shoulder as expected, which will end below 25 dSMA and 200 dSMA and the first right shoulder.
Strategy 2.
Close long position near target when there is a lower low. Find an appropriate exit point for the long "Short position". Re-enter long "Short position" when there is a lower low near 25 and 200 dSMA or top of the first right shoulder.
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Posted by mu200411 on 11-24-07 12:58 PM:
Scenario 3.
Minuette Wave 4)c.3:5 extends because of the Dow Theory Bear Market signal.
This count is out of consideration when there is a close above last Tuesday close.
Strategy 3.
Keep long "Short position". Close gambling "Long position" when there is a lower low.
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But on 11-26-07 there was a lower low which turn out to be a Bear Trap with a lot of warning sign. Put/Call ratio at high end.
See chart: Divergence in RSI, ROC, and buy signal from MACD 2 day later.
See quotes.
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Posted by mu200411 on 11-27-07 12:42 AM:
a-b-c + lower low = TRUE or FALSE sell signal.
Bulls trapped or Bears Trapped.
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Posted by bh_prop on 11-27-07 01:24 AM:
abc up followed by lower low would be indicative of trapped longs
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Posted by Mup on 11-27-07 05:03 AM:
Its been going pretty much to plan...

We had the IV wave over the hoildays and we're in the V now of the possable ED C wave..

We get a lot of time pressure coming in tomorrow which so its something to also consider. So we could bounce from here...That would catch a few people out..

page 166 is useful for a quick memory jog
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=101387&perpage=6&pagenumber=166
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Posted by rtstrading on 11-27-07 05:35 AM:
Exactly on track for the "C" Wave of a large ABC 4th wave correction that I spelled out earlier in this thread. Nice to see some here know there ABC's.

Very possible flush of the weak hands here as we take out the August lows. That would setup the 5th wave to new, all-time highs and not what most are now considering possible.

Get your buying powder ready!
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Our EWMTer had not followed his strategy 2.
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Posted by mu200411 on 11-27-07 09:27 PM:
Scenario 2, unlikely now.
Friday 23, 2007 rebound was the beginning of the second right shoulder as expected, which will end below 25 dSMA and 200 dSMA and the first right shoulder.
Strategy 2.
Open long position when there is a higher high. Close long position near target when there is a lower low. Find an appropriate exit point for the long "Short position". Re-enter long "Short position" when there is a lower low near 25 and 200 dSMA or top of the first right shoulder.
Landis called the 1404 low.
Posted by Landis82 on 11-27-07 11:25 PM:
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Quote from Mup:

Beat me to it Mu

The 50% is just above as well... Key area's this for the bears.
If they don't come out to play at the 50% then we could be labling this i,ii,iii if the 61.8% goes.
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Exactly!
I needed to see the SPX stay above the 1404 level today and it certainly looks like we have done that, and MORE . . .

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The solution to this Blunder #9 is simple. Just bought some call option on 11-26-07 which was very easy because of few buyers.
 

Attachments

On December 10th, 2007 everyone in this thread was calling a top of some degrees.
Our Elliott Wave Minor Wave Trader should have closed the call option and bought some put option on 12-11-07.
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Posted by elovemer on 12-09-07 04:23 PM:
....spx wave counting......
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Posted by Mup on 12-10-07 04:59 AM:
Thats some interesting use of wave numbers on that SPX chart elovemer....

Oh wheat also had a 38.2 at that recent low...
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Posted by Mup on 12-10-07 05:11 AM:
A quick doodle on the INDU.

The Bear case for a FED sell off. (see last chart for bull case)

Just Finishing off either a X-X or a D wave. Then its down to new lows in a Z wave of a Triple 3 or an E wave of a Triangle.
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Posted by elovemer on 12-10-07 11:37 AM:
... if the high was the end of wave 5 .....
..... and if we complete another 5 waves down from here.....
..... then my chart will be looking pretty good .... maybe
...
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Quote from Mup:
Thats some interesting use of wave numbers on that SPX chart elovemer....
Oh wheat also had a 38.2 at that recent low...
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Posted by Mup on 12-11-07 12:19 AM:
While its quiet a big picture look of the Dow since 1982.

This final phase could be part of an ED wave V or some sort of X wave.
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Posted by mu200411 on 12-11-07 09:16 PM:
Status.
Hold long position.
Scenario 1.
As Friday scenario 1.
Scenario 1 target= 13978.1396, 1543.3699, 2770.26
Dec 10 Close= 13727.0303, 1515.96, 2719.4299
Points to target= 251.1093, 27.4099, 50.8301
This is about three waves of (150, 15, 30) - (50, 5, 10) + (150, 15, 30).
Strategy 1.
Hold long position until the target is reached.
Scenario 2.
Minute 4)c.2 will end after 2:15 today.
Strategy 2.
"Buy on rumor, sell on the fact".
Close long position and open short position.
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Posted by Mup on 12-11-07 09:56 PM:
elovemer

ED lesser wave 5 (v on the chart) going into the FED would be nice...

60min Spx
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Posted by TraderRob on 12-12-07 12:44 AM:
Here is my trade setup... I have labeled the decline from the Oct. 11 high as wave 1 and today's high as wave 2 completing an A-B-C correction of wave 1. My trade would be to short 2 March e-mini S & P contracts at 1514. A decline below 1514(end of wave 4 of wave C) would be my confirmation that a top is in and that the Stock indices have begun a new leg down. If filled my my initial stop would be at 1533(1 pt. above todays high) for a risk of $1900.00. My target is 1350 which if reached would represent a profit of $16,400 and a reward vs. risk of 8.63 to 1. If the trade is initiated I would move my stop to breakeven when the contracts trade at 1441. Today I would place my sell stop order prior to todays Fed announcement. If the stock indices rally on the Fed news I will work my sell stop until the market trades above the Oct. 11 high
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Posted by Landis82 on 12-12-07 02:31 AM:
The FED now admits to the "economy IS slowing" from previous language, yet they only cut the Discount Rate 1/4 of a point.

These guys clearly have NO CLUE.
And most troubling is the fact that most of the current Fed Governors have NEVER been thru a Recession before.

Very few of these guys were around 5 years ago.

They just don't get the SEVERITY of what is going on in the financial system.

Unreal.
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Posted by mu200411 on 12-12-07 11:41 AM:
Scenario 2.
Minute 4)c.3 will be equal to Minute 4)c.1 and will end at
End of 4)c.3=12303.5811, 1353.7099, 2412.2901
Strategy 2.
Hold long "Short position".
Close long position after 1/3 to 1/2 retracement when there is a lower low. Open short "Short position". Set stop at the last high.
 
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