Ewj: elliott wave

[mu200411]

Rob,
I think you should read this one more time;
. "Wave Equality
. It is one of the tenets of the Wave principle that two of the impulse waves in a five-wave sequence will tend toward equality in time and magnitude. This is generally true of the two non-extended waves when one impulse wave extends and it is especially true if the third wave is the extension. If perfect equality is lacking, a .618 multiple is the next likely relationship."
. from Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter 1990.

IMO we should expect wave 1,3, and 5 to be equal and the same for 2 and 4 and label the wave as such. That is the reason you often heard of "MM" or "measured move".
When should we expect wave extension and label the last two waves as a lesser degree waves as in your case?
FME I would suspect a wave extension when wave 1 = the last wave 1 of the same degree and wave 3 and 4 is smaller than wave 1 and 2 and give it an alternate label as 3.1 and 3.2. When wave 1 = 3 and the trend in strong but wave 5 is rather short, I would suspect a wave 5 extension else it will be a wave 5 failure.
BTW I like labeling the wave than guessing the wave.
Mu.

Quote from TraderRob:
This is my preferred count from the June 06 low. Prechter and others are looking for the completion of a triangle and 1 final push to a new high while I believe the Oct. 11 high was it and we have entered a bear market. I believe it would make for an interesting discussion as to why my count is valid/invalid.

 

[mu200411]

Status.
Hold long "Short position".
Scenario 1.
Microwave 4)c.1:3v.iii falls below "sHs" neckline = 12975, 1438, 2583. This should be a decisive movement.
Strategy 1.
Keep short position.

Scenario 2.
Microwave 5)1.3:1i.ii ends above "sHs" neckline = 12975.1104, 1448.51, 2583.
Strategy 2.
Open short "Long position" when Infrawave .iii:iii goes above Infrawave .iii:i. Close short position at the end of Infrawave .iii:iv when it ends above Infrawave .iii:i and there is a higher high. Set stop at the last low.

 

[mu200411]

The right shoulder is formed. Wait for the breaking of the neckline to confirm Microwave 4)c.1:3v.iii.

 

[elovemer]

.... Thank you for your response....
... I will check it out...
... I don't have the complete publication....
... but I will try to get it...
...thanks

Quote from Mup:
Elovemer have a read of page 127* onwards of Frost Prechter's EW book.

 

[Mup]

No Frost and Prechter :eek:.....I'm shocked

I've not seen many out side the box counts yet, rtstrading doing something a little different, Mu also covered that option a good few pages ago.

How about the whole move from the Aug 04 low (rtstrading wave 2 low on that last chart) to the July 07 high, being a double zig-zag structure of an ED wave I.

 

[rtstrading]

Well, my count is on a weekly (do you think Elliott had anything shorter term than that when he devloped this method?).

Elliott wave is at its best in the much longer term, and not microanalyzed. Please step back from the charts!

Here is a classical rendition of my real time chart in stick form that spells out the formation we have seen since the lows in October 2002.

IF you add sentiment measures to the counts you will also realize that we are nearing another low in count for a move sharply higher over the next four months to the final top in this long bull (read get out by Feb 08).

Irregular Corrections (Classical Formations)
In this type of correction, Wave B makes a new high. The final Wave C may drop to the beginning of Wave A, or below it.

 

[Mup]

Quote from rtstrading:
Well, my count is on a weekly (do you think Elliott had anything shorter term than that when he devloped this method?).

Are you sure ?

To quote from R.N. Elliott first work The wave Principle:
The daily range of the stock transactions was inauguarated in 1928 and the hourly record in 1932. These are necessary in order to observe the minor and minute waves, especially in fast markets.

 

[Mup]

Quote from rtstrading:

IF you add sentiment measures to the counts you will also realize that we are nearing another low in count for a move sharply higher over the next four months to the final top in this long bull (read get out by Feb 08).

On your count it would only be a wave 3 top in your Feb 08 time slot ?

If you place the a wave 3 where your wave 1 is, you could have an Extended 5th wave that would fit your time horizon as a top.


I tend to use the rule that the first wave of a subdivision should not be longer than the proceeding higher degree Wave.

But in this case I've ignored that rule to highlight your count would give a wave 3 high.

 

[Mup]

Quote from Mup:If you place the a wave 3 where your wave 1 is, you could have an Extended 5th wave that would fit your time horizon as a top.

A chart always helps of that extended 5th option

I personally don't like the fact that sub wave 1 is longer than the next higher degree subwave i in this case.

 

[Mup]

This is a cleaner option & there are no sub wave lenght issues...