Ewj: elliott wave

[Landis82]

I am looking at two scenarios for tomorrow:

Bullish:

Get above the 10 hour MA in the SPX at 1461 during the first 3 hours of trading. Force a close above the 21/40 hour MA's at 1463, which then targets the 10 DAY MA in the low 1470 handle. Obviously, we have to play an expiration game tomorrow and the market will have to get away from the pattern of late-afternoon weakness.

Bearish:

Should support at 1440 - 1438.55 not hold, look for a spike lower that tests the 1.382 ratio of (1552.75 - 1489.95 ) from yesterday's intra-day high at 1492.15 at 1405, which also happens to be pretty close to where the 21-Month MA 1404.67

(rising at 8.50 per month).

 

[Mup]

There's quality post on this thread from 10 year bond tips to excellent analyst.

Good stuff guys...

 

[TraderRob]

The decline from Wednesday's high has been very steep with minimal retracements.... I believe we are in a "C" wave from the Oct. 11 high or the start of a much larger correction(bear market). The Dow and Nadaq sold off into the .618 - .786 retracement, but the S & P and ER exceeded the .786 level today. Goog has already taken out Monday's low while Rimm and Amzn are very close to it. The volume on the Dow for Tuesday's 300+ rally was lower than the previous day. The asian markets opened up sharply lower in early trading this evening and the European markets are reeling over Barclays. I cant see traders aggresively buying the market in the morning, but I have been wrong before. Like Landis I see accelerated selling once we take out Monday's low.

 

[mu200411]

bgp,
Bravo, 30yr 107 20/32 rise a you said! What's the implication?
Mu.

Nov 15 8:44pm ET † Price Change Yield Yld Chng
2 yr 100 17/32 +10/32 3.32 -0.22
5 yr 100 28/32 +21/32 3.67 -0.17
10 yr 100 26/32 +28/32 4.15 -0.11
30 yr 107 20/32 +1 5/32 4.52 -0.09

Quote from bgp:

pay attention to 30yr. bonds. on the volatile days, they work well with the dow moves.


bgp

 

[mu200411]

Status:
Hold long "Short Position" since 11-14-07 09:43 PM.
Short "Long Position" opened after Ultrawave :vIII.V ended.

Quote from mu200411: 11-14-07 09:43 PM

Close long, open short, set stop at the last high.

 

[mu200411]

Scenario 1.
Infrawave 4)c.1:3v.i:v falls below "sHs" neckline = 12975.1104, 1448.51, 2583. (see mu200411 11-15-07 11:46 AM)
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=101387&perpage=6&pagenumber=147
This should be a decisive movement.
Strategy 1.
Close short "Long position" at the end of Tickwave :vIV when there is a lower low about 70,10,20 from Thursday low.

Scenario 2.
Tickwave 5)1.3:1i.ii:ãV ends above "sHs" neckline = 12975.1104, 1448.51, 2583.
This may be a reluctant movement.
Strategy 2.
Close short "Long position" at the end of Tickwave :ãIV. Re-enter Long "Long Position" at the end of Tickwave :ãV when there is a higher high. Set stop at the last low. Close long "Short position" at the next buy signal.

 

[mu200411]

Long position closed at target when there was a lower low as planned.

 

[mu200411]

Five wave and higher high, but no new low in the Dow, may be Infrawave v.v:i. Too small target at Tickwave v.v:iIV. Bypass the buy signal. Wait and see.

 

[Mup]

Looks like the 1466 area is a Stand out line in the sand...

Might get a repeat of last friday's afternoon move if it carn't clear that ALT into a 38.2%

If it does, clear that TA point then there will be a ton of Stops to pop going into the weekend...

 

[mu200411]

The last 5-3-5 wave may be Microwave 4)c.1:3v.ii or Tickwave 5)1.3:1i.iii. The latter should not fall below Tickwave i.i.