Ewj: elliott wave
- Thread starter mu200411
- Start date
E wavers... let me know what you think of my wave count on the attached S&P chart. I believe we are in a third wave with huge downside potential next week. What will fuel the decline I am anticipating... today's close was incredibly weak, the Fed added 41 billion in liquidity this week(do they know something), last week an analyst received death threats when she downgraded Citigroup, both the FED and the Bank of England gave banks permission to lend to their brokerage subsidiaries above the allowable limit, forced liquidation of CDOs is approaching... I believe the future holds more bad news for the financials. As a mortgage broker, words cannot convey to you how bad the mortgage and real estate markets are and they will get worse.
Yes, I am a bear holding S&P puts.
Yes, I am a bear holding S&P puts.
Thats a hard core Bear count 
At the moment I keep seeing 3 wave patterns in the structure, plus there has been No Alternation between corrections. They've been Exp Flats so I can't really, at the moment, go all out bear, untill the structure starts to change.
Mu is probably more bearish then me though
At the moment I keep seeing 3 wave patterns in the structure, plus there has been No Alternation between corrections. They've been Exp Flats so I can't really, at the moment, go all out bear, untill the structure starts to change.
Mu is probably more bearish then me though
All 3 alternative counts below are still viable.
The first one is in accord with Mup's count, an Intermediate wave 5) scenario.
The second and third are more like Bob's count.
The fourth count is the Intermediate wave V)4) scenario, which will bring us to the August 16th, 2007 low and then to new all time high.
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Posted by mu200411 on 08-23-07 01:50 AM:
The October 2000 Forum might have predicted the Cycle Wave V)IV to end 43.06% lower at Dow ~ 6,780 in about 94 months or ~ November 2007 about the same size and duration as Cycle Wave V)II.
The low of Cycle Wave V)IV to date is 7181.47, a retracement of 39.69%, and 33 months away from the top. A little bit too small but a lot too short. It may be Primary Wave V)IVa]. The wave that ended on July 19, 2007 may Primary Wave V)IVb]. The Primary Wave V)IVc] may go down to Dow ~ 6,780 in about 1 to 3 years. Cycle Wave V)V may run from that point to the year 2020 to Dow ~ 34,000 (=Primary Wave V)III5]).
If Cycle Wave V)IV have ended, the present wave may be Intermediate Wave V)V)1]5) which will run up more than 21 months, to Dow 16,800 or more, in 2009.
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Posted by mu200411 on 08-24-07 12:00 AM:
I have 3 alternative counts for the 2000 - 2007 segment. At least 2 are wrong and the last one may be wrong too.
The first alternative is the most bullish. Cycle Wave V)III ended on March 12th, 2003, and Intermediate Wave V)V1]3) has just ended on July 19th, 2007. After Intermediate Wave V)V1]4) ends above 11,926.79, Primary Wave V)V1]5) may rise to 16,800. This alternative count will be invalidated when Dow falls below 10,794.95.
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Posted by mu200411 on 08-24-07 12:13 AM:
The second alternative is a Cycle Wave V)IV running correction. Primary Wave V)IVc] may ended around Dow 10K. This alternative will be invalidate when Dow rises above 14,121.04 or drops below 7,181.47.
The third alternative count is the most bearish. Cycle Wave V)IV is an irregular correction which should end below 7,181.47. This count will be invalidate when Dow rises above 14,121.04 or drops below 1,001.11, or Cycle Wave V)IV ends much above 7,181.47.
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Posted by mu200411 on 08-24-07 12:27 AM:
At this moment, there is no way to predict how the market would turn out by using the Elliott Wave Pattern. This is the weak point of the Elliott Wave Principle. Those who expect a tool to foretold every moves of the market should leave Elliott Wave Principle alone. But this is also the strong point of the Elliott Wave Principle, because only the wave counter is wrong, the Elliott Wave Principle is always right.
Those who have patient should wait, when the Elliott Wave count tells something it is usually right.
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The first one is in accord with Mup's count, an Intermediate wave 5) scenario.
The second and third are more like Bob's count.
The fourth count is the Intermediate wave V)4) scenario, which will bring us to the August 16th, 2007 low and then to new all time high.
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Posted by mu200411 on 08-23-07 01:50 AM:
The October 2000 Forum might have predicted the Cycle Wave V)IV to end 43.06% lower at Dow ~ 6,780 in about 94 months or ~ November 2007 about the same size and duration as Cycle Wave V)II.
The low of Cycle Wave V)IV to date is 7181.47, a retracement of 39.69%, and 33 months away from the top. A little bit too small but a lot too short. It may be Primary Wave V)IVa]. The wave that ended on July 19, 2007 may Primary Wave V)IVb]. The Primary Wave V)IVc] may go down to Dow ~ 6,780 in about 1 to 3 years. Cycle Wave V)V may run from that point to the year 2020 to Dow ~ 34,000 (=Primary Wave V)III5]).
If Cycle Wave V)IV have ended, the present wave may be Intermediate Wave V)V)1]5) which will run up more than 21 months, to Dow 16,800 or more, in 2009.
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Posted by mu200411 on 08-24-07 12:00 AM:
I have 3 alternative counts for the 2000 - 2007 segment. At least 2 are wrong and the last one may be wrong too.
The first alternative is the most bullish. Cycle Wave V)III ended on March 12th, 2003, and Intermediate Wave V)V1]3) has just ended on July 19th, 2007. After Intermediate Wave V)V1]4) ends above 11,926.79, Primary Wave V)V1]5) may rise to 16,800. This alternative count will be invalidated when Dow falls below 10,794.95.
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Posted by mu200411 on 08-24-07 12:13 AM:
The second alternative is a Cycle Wave V)IV running correction. Primary Wave V)IVc] may ended around Dow 10K. This alternative will be invalidate when Dow rises above 14,121.04 or drops below 7,181.47.
The third alternative count is the most bearish. Cycle Wave V)IV is an irregular correction which should end below 7,181.47. This count will be invalidate when Dow rises above 14,121.04 or drops below 1,001.11, or Cycle Wave V)IV ends much above 7,181.47.
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Posted by mu200411 on 08-24-07 12:27 AM:
At this moment, there is no way to predict how the market would turn out by using the Elliott Wave Pattern. This is the weak point of the Elliott Wave Principle. Those who expect a tool to foretold every moves of the market should leave Elliott Wave Principle alone. But this is also the strong point of the Elliott Wave Principle, because only the wave counter is wrong, the Elliott Wave Principle is always right.
Those who have patient should wait, when the Elliott Wave count tells something it is usually right.
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Not sure of an ED in Soya ( S#F) elovemer...
At the moment the move of that last low in Aug Feels a little sharp ? I'd be more tempted to lable it a 1,2 i,ii or it could be just a the start of wave i in an ED...
6B #F could be one to watch though ??
Would be typical as my other half wants to do her Xmax shopping in the US in December :eek:
At the moment the move of that last low in Aug Feels a little sharp ? I'd be more tempted to lable it a 1,2 i,ii or it could be just a the start of wave i in an ED...
6B #F could be one to watch though ??
Would be typical as my other half wants to do her Xmax shopping in the US in December :eek: