Ewj: elliott wave

Buy and Sell Signals October 11-22,2007, with a chart.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-11-07 08:35 PM: Status:Hold long position since September 18th, 2007 at 13537.9503 1508.76 2688.7102
Scenario 1. Microwave 4)b.c:5v.v will end near 14199, 1576, 2835.
Scenario 2. Microwave 5)1.3:5v.v will end near 14199, 1576, 2835, and will be followed by a 400,40,80 points correction.
Strategy 1-2. Short sell near the above target when there is a lower low. Set stop at the last high. Close long position when Wednesday low is broken.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-12-07 01:27 AM: First short sell today. Set stop at the last high. Try another short sell if stop out.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-12-07 01:57 AM: Oh my God! What happens? Don't blame me for this dip. Keep this short overnight? Who dare?
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-12-07 02:29 AM: Long position has been closed at the last lower low. Keep short position.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-12-07 02:37 AM: Five waves down, prepare to cover short if there is a higher high. Re-enter short postion after the next sell signal.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-12-07 02:40 AM: Short position closed. Prepare to open another short position at another sell signal.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-12-07 02:53 AM: Re-entered short position after a-b-c and c showed 5 waves. Set stop at the last high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-12-07 04:23 AM: Short position is closed when there is a higher high near measured move.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-12-07 10:50 AM: Don't blame me. Blame Baidu.com note.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Technology led a broader stock market selloff Thursday, with investors backing off after pushing the Dow and S&P 500 to record intra-day highs earlier in the session.

The Dow Jones industrial average (Charts) lost around 0.5 percent. Earlier, the Dow had risen more than 100 points and hit an all-time intra-day high of 14,198.02.

The S&P 500 (Charts) index fell 0.5 percent. The broad index briefly hit a record intra-day high of 1,576.09 before backing off.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite (Charts) lost 1.4 percent, erasing early gains that set it at a fresh 6-1/2 year high. (2834.00)
http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/11/markets/markets_0500/index.htm
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-12-07 10:07 PM: Long position re-entered where it was exit yesterday. Prepare to cut loss if there is another lower low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-12-07 10:31 PM: Prepare to short sell at yesterday wave c if there is a lower low. Today up move may be a larger a-b-c. Set stop at the last high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-12-07 11:24 PM: One more up wave, then short sell at a lower low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-12-07 11:41 PM: Target reached. Open short position when there is a lower low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-13-07 12:00 AM: Short position opened. Set stop at the last high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-13-07 12:28 AM: Stop out. Wait for another sell signal.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-13-07 01:31 AM: = 10-12-07:13:31 Prophet.com Short position opened again. Set stop at the last high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-13-07 03:03 AM: Still short. Downward movement accelerated. May be third wave.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-13-07 03:44 AM: Gap up is less probable than gap down. Keep the short position overnight.
Keep the long position too. (Don't know what to do with it.)
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-15-07 06:42 PM: Status: Non-profitable long and short positions.
Scenario 1. The Market sets up a Bull Trap by going higher than Friday high, then fall below Thursday low.
Strategy 1. Cover short at Friday high. Re-short at the last Friday low. Close long position.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-15-07 10:46 PM: Short position covered and re-entered. Set stop at the last high. Long position closed.
Target 250,25,50 may accept 2/3 target.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-16-07 12:39 AM: Correction might have ended. Prepare to cover short if there is a higer high. Enter long postion.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-16-07 12:49 AM: This may be the last leg down. Reduce target to 200, 20, 40 from today high. Cover short when there is a higher high and enter long position set stop at the last low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-16-07 02:25 AM: Prepare to cover short at the next higher high and open long position. Set stop at the last low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-16-07 02:43 AM: Short covered. Re-enter long position. Set stop at the last low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-16-07 07:47 AM: Long position stop out and re-entered.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-16-07 09:32 PM: Short position opened, set stop at the last high. Hold long position, to be close below Monday low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-16-07 10:15 PM: Long position closed.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-17-07 08:15 PM: Futures point to a higher start. Cover short and open long position at open.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-17-07 09:35 PM: Close the long position, re-enter long position if there is a higher high. Prepare to short sell
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-17-07 09:42 PM: Short position entered. Set stop at the last high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-17-07 09:54 PM: Prepare to cover short and re-enter long position.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-17-07 09:57 PM: Done. Set stop at the last low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-17-07 09:59 PM: Stop out. Wait and see.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-17-07 10:08 PM: Prepare to enter long position if there is a higher high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-17-07 10:22 PM: Re-enter long position. Set stop at the last low. Quit if stop out.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-17-07 11:12 PM: Stop out.Look like 3 impulse wave down.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 12:32 AM: Short position opened at lower low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 01:26 AM: Next down move will complete 400,40,80 points journey. Prepare to cover short when there is a higher high and open long position.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 01:36 AM: Short position closed, long position opened.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 01:43 AM: Re-enter short position. Set stop at the last high. Prepare to close long position at the last low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 01:52 AM: Long position closed. Try to re-open long position when there is a higher high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 01:57 AM: Cover short here at measured move.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 02:01 AM: Prepare to enter long position when there is a higher high. Set stop at the last low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 02:03 AM: Long position entered. Set stop at the last low. If stop out, wait for another higher high to re-enter.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 02:38 AM: The Market is going to shoot up soon. Looking for a shorting opportunity again at measured move.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 02:43 AM: Prepare to short sell if there is a lower low. Target 160, 16, 32 points.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 02:51 AM: Short re-entered. Set stop at the last high. Target as above.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 03:00 AM: Short covered due to reversed Head and Shoulders pattern. Quit for today.
________________________________________
 

Attachments

Buy and Sell Signals October 11-22,2007, with a chart.

________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 08:31 PM: The good news is "the correction has reached the target range and the Market has rebound". The bad news is "it looks like a 5 impulse waves down", so there may be a lower low unless this is the end of an irregular correction.
Scenario 1. Futures point to a lower start.
Strategy 1. Sell first, ask for reason later. Close long position and sell short at open. Set stop at the last high.
Scenario 2. The Market dips as wave b for 50,5,10 points then rebounds as wave c for another 120,14,46 points then plunges 400,40,80 points.
Strategy 2. Same as strategy 1 but reverse position at target dip, reverse again at the second target then hold on to short position.

________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 09:58 PM: Long position closed and short position opened at open. Now wait to see if "M" pattern fails or not. If there is a higher high then strategy 2.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 10:16 PM: Strategy 2 activated.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 11:10 PM: "M" pattern again. Too soon! Too short! Target fail? Prepare to enter short position.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 11:12 PM: Short position entered. Edit. 11:29 Set stop at the last high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 11:22 PM: "mMm" pattern!
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-18-07 11:38 PM: To be stop out again? If so, wait for another opportunity, the reward afterward is so great. May be, may be not.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 02:09 AM: Position reversed as said in strategy 2 at the last higher high after intraday resistance trend line was broken. Prepare to reverse position again at target (120,14,46 points), or short sell but hold the long position, where there is a lower low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 02:29 AM:
Will there be another move of 40,4,15 points above the last high? Or 60% of target range must be accepted.
Prepare to short sell when there is a lower low. Keep the long position for more consideration.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 02:45 AM: Look like a short position must be open now!
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 02:51 AM: Set stop for short position at the last high. Long position will be close at entry point, and re-enter if the market reverse again and has a higher high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 09:13 PM: Status: Long from the last trough. Short from the last high. (Intraday)
Scenario 1. The Market shows wave 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c from all time high. Today is going down as 1-2-3-4-5.
Strategy 1. Keep the short position. Close the long position at open as futures indicated. Prepare to reverse position if the last Thursday high is broken.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 09:29 PM: Long position closed at open. Re-enter long position if the last Thursday high is broken.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 09:33 PM: "M&m" pattern again. Triple top in NASDAQ.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 09:37 PM: What is wrong with the Market? Any bad news? Edit at 09:40 Dow -125 in 10 minutes.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 09:42 PM: Time to take some profit out of the short position. Now.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 09:44 PM: Re-enter Short if there is a lower low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 10:08 PM: Short sell re-entered at the last lower low. Now looking to take profit at around -200,20,40 when there is a higher high. Never mind if target is not reached.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 10:38 PM: Wave count OK now. Target is near. Prepare to cover short when there is a higher high, then enter long position and set stop at the last low. Rebound Target 70-100,7-10,14-20 points.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 10:45 PM: Reverse position now.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 11:34 PM: Close long position when there is a lower low and enter short position. Look for reverse point again where there is a higher high. Black Friday? Free fall. No substantial rebound.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-19-07 11:58 PM: Position reversed. Set stop at the last low. Target 1/3 - 1/2 of the 250,25,50 points correction. Keep long position. Open short position when there is a lower low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-20-07 12:13 AM: Set target at another 50,5,10 points up. Open short position when there is a lower low. Set stop at the last high. Keep long position.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-20-07 12:52 AM: Triple top. Head and shoulders. If confirmed, must close long position and open short position. Target = another 250,25,50!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-20-07 12:56 AM: Close long, open short. Set stop at the last high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-20-07 01:40 AM: Double bottom and Triple bottom? Prepare to reverse position if there is a higher high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-20-07 01:41 AM: Position reversed. Set stop at the last low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-20-07 01:44 AM: Prepare to sell short again at measured move. Keep long position.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-20-07 02:30 AM: Long position stop out. Re-enter short position. Set target at another 200,20,40 points down.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-20-07 02:50 AM: Is this a Bear Trap?
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-20-07 02:52 AM: Here comes the move we are waiting.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-20-07 03:08 AM: Prepare to cover short and enter long position at around -400,-40,-80, then set stop at the last low where there is a higher high. Accept 60% of target.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-20-07 10:31 AM:
Minute .1
This is my SPX chart.

Can we classify the first five waves as a Diagonal Triangle Type II, with some blowout?
If yes, it will not bode well for the Market's future, since it will tell us that we are in the third sub-wave of the third wave, i.e., Subminuette Wave :3iii. Futures -380,-41,-56.25 don't bode well for the Market's either!

Unless B&B cuts again Monday looks scary!!!!!!!!!
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-22-07 06:48 PM:
Scenario 1.
No rate cut. Futures point to lower start.
Strategy 1.
Hold on to short position. Find an opportunity to buy and hold for a 70-100,7-10,14-20 point profit and sell. Target around -800-1000,80-100,160-200 from all time high.

Scenario 2.
Surprise rate cut. Futures jump up.
Strategy 2.
Close short position. Buy and hold for 1000,100,200 points.

Today need to be concentrated. No post in the morning.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-22-07 10:33 PM: Long position was open near target, -800,-80,-160, from September high when there is a higher high in SPX and closed when target +100, +10, +20 was reached. Short position intact.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-22-07 11:35 PM: Open long position again at double bottom when there is a higher high. Target same or may be a little more.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-23-07 12:34 AM: Plan to sell the long position at measured move where there is a lower low. Same target 100, 10,20 as before.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-23-07 01:24 AM: Target reached. Long position closed because a lower low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-23-07 02:45 AM: Prepare to close short position if there is a higher high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 10-23-07 03:58 AM: Short position not closed.
________________________________________
 

Attachments

Last chart for Intraday Buy-Sell signals. It consumed too much time.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 09:18 PM:
Status. Short position closed at close although there was no higher high, just to log in profit because target was reached. Long position was not open because there was no higher high.
Scenario 1. The Market drop to measured move -870.28, -85.25, -135.8601 or around 13092, 1467, 2725.
Strategy 1. Short sell when there is a lower low.
Scenario 2. The Market rebound above October 22th, 2007 low at -160.38, -18.04, -96.69
Strategy 2. Open long position when there is a higher high. Set target at 100-150,10-15,20-30 points.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 09:35 PM: Still waiting for buy or sell signal.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 09:37 PM: Sell if Thursday low broken. > -18.94,-1.78,-1.66. Buy at above today high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 09:49 PM: Stay out of seesaw Market can avoid whipsaws.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 09:50 PM: Short position opened.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 09:53 PM: Prepare to reverse position near October 22nd, 2007 low, when there is a higher high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 09:58 PM: Prepare to reverse position when there is a higher high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 10:00 PM: Position reversed. Set stop at the last low. Same upward target.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 10:07 PM: Prepare to reverse position if there is a another lower low.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 10:21 PM: Position reversed and prepare to reverse again if reversed Head and Shoulders pattern confirmed. Whipsawed.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 10:31 PM: Short closed. Long opened. Set stop at the last low. Set target at 150, 15, 30.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 10:44 PM: Position reversed with the "M" pattern at 2/3 of target. Set stop at the last high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 11:23 PM: "M" pattern confirmed. Looks like accelerating down again.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 11:32 PM: Another 200,20,40 down move?
Impossible!
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 11:38 PM: The Market will go where it wants to go. Nothing impossible!
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 11:44 PM: Prepare to reverse position at Double Bottom "W" pattern, if there is a higher high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-02-07 11:47 PM: Thanks Mup. Good Chart. Agree with the count. Position reversed. Set stop at the last low. Set target at 200, 20, 40.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-03-07 12:04 AM: Corrective wave should not repeat itself. Wave 4 should not be the same as wave 2. But it looks like we're stuck in a trading range again.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-03-07 12:14 AM: Stocks down. Bond up. Yield down. USD down 1.4493. Oil and Gold up. A chain reaction.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-03-07 12:27 AM: Prepare to reverse position, if there is a lower low. Set stop at the last high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-03-07 01:15 AM: "W" pattern target neared. Prepare to reverse position if there is a lower low then set stop at the last high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-03-07 01:26 AM: Position reversed. Set stop at the last high. Target 1/3-2/3 retracement. Simple "W" as "M" chart pattern.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-03-07 01:48 AM: Head and Shoulders pattern! Ready to go down another 250,25,50 points? As wave 4)c.1:3v? Or prefer going up 1000,100,200 points as Minute 5)1.3?
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-03-07 02:24 AM: About 50% retracement, prepare to reverse position if there is a higher high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-03-07 02:38 AM: Not yet reversed. Wait for another higher high.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-03-07 02:39 AM: Oh! Bull trap avoided.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-03-07 02:49 AM: More like a-b-c than 1-2-3 now, because the first wave territory was invade by the retracement.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-03-07 03:16 AM: I think we are going down as 4)c.3:5i or 4)c.3:3iii.Wave 4)c.3:4 may be expanding triangle a your chart. Ah! URO/USD=1.4504
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-03-07 03:21 AM: Close short position due to higher high. Long is not opened.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-03-07 03:32 AM: Short position re-entered. Set stop at the last high. If stop out quit for today.
________________________________________
Posted by mu200411 on 11-03-07 09:25 AM: Status. Stop out and quit.
________________________________________
 

Attachments

I wonder what degree of correction we are in?
Since July 2007,
- We have seen individual investors gone broke,
- Several banks bankrupt,
- Uprising in some countries
- the Fall of USD empire.
Is this Intermediate Wave 4), Primary Wave 4] or Cycle Wave IV?

Quote from mu200411:

At the ends of Primary Wave corrections many individual investors have gone broke.
Cycle Wave usually ends with bankruptcies of many companies and some governments.
Supercycle Wave ends with collapse of some countries or economic systems.
Ruling classes changed at Grand-supercycle Wave Corrections.
Millennium Wave Corrections ended with the Fall of Empires and civilizations.
More...
 
Or this could be the final throws an X wave that started from the lows of 10/02 as part of a W-X-Y pattern, to form a wave IV of cycle degree.


:D
 
Yes, Mup.

I think Elliott wrote somewhere about Market Top and Bottom.
At Market Bottom all or almost all stocks sink to the low together.
Market Top is more like FAN SHAPE, stock bubbles burst one by one begin with the weakest and the strongest sink last. We have seen Blue chip banks tank, Technology stocks may tank last.
This Cycle Wave IV began in December 1989 when Nikkei fell from ~40,000. It has not recovered half of that level by now. The Soviet Russia vanished from the map. Communist economy almost vanished too and may be gone for good at the end of Cycle Wave IV because of the oil price. Will the US burst too?
 
Status.
Empty hands.

Scenario 1.
Futures point to a lower start.
Strategy 1.
Sell short at open, set stop at Friday high. Set target for 13300, 1474, 2759 a measured move of wave iii which is 304.0195, 38.48, 57.29 points long. This will make Minuette 4)c.1:3 811.9892, 98.71, 144.5699 points long, almost equal to Minuette 4)c.1:1. Anyway 1/3 to 2/3 of target will be accepted when there is a higher high.

Scenario 2.
Futures point to a higher start.
Strategy 2.
Wait and see. Short sell when there is a lower low at measured move.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top