Ewj: elliott wave
- Thread starter mu200411
- Start date
EUR/USD = 1.7 in 2009:eek:
Measured move points to this figure.
A Brave Call
(This thread will be obsolete by then).
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7006060.stm
This is a very very very simplified equation:
Fair Value USD = (Gold + Foreign Currency Reserves + Borrowed Foreign Currency Reserves)/number of dollars.
Trade deficits = decrease FCR = decrease FV = increase EUR/USD
Borrow more FC = increase FV = to stabilize dollar.
Stronger USD = bring in fewer USD for constant EUR price = more USD abroad = increase the denominator = decrease FV.
Weak USD = bring in more USD for constant EUR price = less USD abroad = decrease the denominator = increase FV = opportunity to decrease borrowed FC.
Not to mention competitiveness, which has somewhat delay effect.
Too strong currency = happy debtor.
Unfairly weak currency = rich central bank, poor people.
How to un-peg those unfairly weak currency?
DETROIT - General Motors Corp. reported a net profit on Wednesday of $950 million for the fourth quarter of 2006...........
........to become more competitive with Asian automakers like Toyota Motor Corp., wound up with a loss of $2 billion for all of 2006 compared with a restated loss of $10.4 billion in 2005.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17607051/
G.M. said it earned $891 million from April through June, or $1.56 a share, compared with a loss of $3.4 billion, or $5.98 a share, in the period a year earlier.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/01/b...Business/Companies/General Motors Corporation
Measured move points to this figure.
A Brave Call
(This thread will be obsolete by then). http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7006060.stm
This is a very very very simplified equation:
Fair Value USD = (Gold + Foreign Currency Reserves + Borrowed Foreign Currency Reserves)/number of dollars.
Trade deficits = decrease FCR = decrease FV = increase EUR/USD
Borrow more FC = increase FV = to stabilize dollar.
Stronger USD = bring in fewer USD for constant EUR price = more USD abroad = increase the denominator = decrease FV.
Weak USD = bring in more USD for constant EUR price = less USD abroad = decrease the denominator = increase FV = opportunity to decrease borrowed FC.
Not to mention competitiveness, which has somewhat delay effect.
Too strong currency = happy debtor.
Unfairly weak currency = rich central bank, poor people.
How to un-peg those unfairly weak currency?
DETROIT - General Motors Corp. reported a net profit on Wednesday of $950 million for the fourth quarter of 2006...........
........to become more competitive with Asian automakers like Toyota Motor Corp., wound up with a loss of $2 billion for all of 2006 compared with a restated loss of $10.4 billion in 2005.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17607051/
G.M. said it earned $891 million from April through June, or $1.56 a share, compared with a loss of $3.4 billion, or $5.98 a share, in the period a year earlier.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/01/b...Business/Companies/General Motors Corporation
US Gov't 10 Year Yield up to 10% in 2012.
During 1981 - 1986 US Gov't 10 Year Yield fell in Cycle Wave A, then rebounded in Cycle Wave B in 1987 and fell again in Cycle Wave C during 1988 - 2003.
The move up during 2003 - 2007 should be intermediate wave 1), 2) and 3) which should end at 7% in ~ 2009. After a correction intermediate wave 5) will bring the yield up to 10% in, may be, 2012.
Note:
An interesting chart in eusdaikiâs Attachment: 10_year_yield-30yr chart.png. It is out of context to reply in that thread. So I post here.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=81958&perpage=6&pagenumber=34
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/05/chart_of_the_we_1.html
During 1981 - 1986 US Gov't 10 Year Yield fell in Cycle Wave A, then rebounded in Cycle Wave B in 1987 and fell again in Cycle Wave C during 1988 - 2003.
The move up during 2003 - 2007 should be intermediate wave 1), 2) and 3) which should end at 7% in ~ 2009. After a correction intermediate wave 5) will bring the yield up to 10% in, may be, 2012.
Note:
An interesting chart in eusdaikiâs Attachment: 10_year_yield-30yr chart.png. It is out of context to reply in that thread. So I post here.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=81958&perpage=6&pagenumber=34
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/05/chart_of_the_we_1.html
Many technical indicators are in overbought zone. Japanese candle stick chart shows weakness at resistance trendline or level. 25 sma investors are tempted to take profit.
Futures point to an opening at Friday high.
Strategy.
Elliott Wave Minor Wave Trader is holding long position. He is trying to milk some profit out of short position along the way up.
Sell short at open, set stop at Friday high, quit if stop out.
Set profit target at 1/3 retracement or Thursday low. Re-enter short position if neckline of the "M" is broken, target profit is dictated by the "M" pattern.
Futures point to an opening at Friday high.
Strategy.
Elliott Wave Minor Wave Trader is holding long position. He is trying to milk some profit out of short position along the way up.
Sell short at open, set stop at Friday high, quit if stop out.
Set profit target at 1/3 retracement or Thursday low. Re-enter short position if neckline of the "M" is broken, target profit is dictated by the "M" pattern.