Ewj: elliott wave

[blnbr]

Quote from Mup:

On a side note GBP/USD has completed 5 waves into a 50% @ 1:44 for the bears to attack...

That was a good one Mup.

I like the Forex stuff and hope more posts will be on that market as well.

 

[Mup]

Quote from Mup
a-b-c on the globex gives 850 then 846 as first eyeball targets...

Thanks blnbr

ES met it targets from this morning as well

-37 ALt and Gap is around 839-8 area and a 50% just below to so its a key area for the Bull to try and defend that 839 to 836 on the ES

 

[Mup]

Nice line in the sand at the +8.75 Alt into at 50%

5min ES

 

[Mup]

Handy that EW

New low , getting close to that key 839-836 area

5min ES

 

[blnbr]

Quote from Mup:

Thanks blnbr

ES met it targets from this morning as well

-37 ALt and Gap is around 839-8 area and a 50% just below to so its a key area for the Bull to try and defend that 839 to 836 on the ES

The aggressive 5-wave down today and the trend line resistance on the daily chart lead me to suspect that the last 4 days’ rally is over and SPX may be heading towards 805 or lower in the next few days.

 

[Landis82]

Just an FYI about drawing down-trend lines . . . "Trader" Vic says that you ALWAYS draw them from the highest high, down and to the lowest minor high point preceding the lowest low, so that the line does not pass through prices between the two low points.

Looking at your chart, the only VALID down-trend line would be from the spike high in mid-September and down through the first week November high.

 

[blnbr]

Quote from Landis82:

Just an FYI about drawing down-trend lines . . . "Trader" Vic says that you ALWAYS draw them from the highest high, down and to the lowest minor high point preceding the lowest low, so that the line does not pass through prices between the two low points.

Looking at your chart, the only VALID down-trend line would be from the spike high in mid-September and down through the first week November high.

Thanks for the questioning. But in fact, you may draw several trend lines on one chart at the same time_ just like we are looking at several Elliott Wave alternatives for a given chart, to make your observation and trading decisions.

By definition, the trend line that only connects 2 high points or 2 low points is called “tentative” trend line, while the one that connects 3 or more points is a confirmed trend line. The one that I drew on the chart seems to work well on the third high point. So I think that line at least has some good reference value for the price movements there, IMO.

BTW, I’ve learned quite a few practical trading methods from Trader Vic’s books. I also met him in his seminar some years ago. I like him a lot.

 

[circadian]

Okay guys, I pop in here from time to time to see what's going on, and I must say that it looks like the EW thread is where the hardest working T.A.'s are.

I have something for you guys to look at. It seems like it has gone relatively unnoticed by many. My question is this: "Are we about to see a relatively strong bout of volatility expansion?" That's what it is beginning to look like to me. The chart is the VIX. The formation is obvious. All opinions welcome, and I'm pretty fresh to EWT, so dumb it down for me if you must. Thx.

 

[mu200411]

Update on the Trench Warfare:
The Bulls won and managed to push the Bears UP to the Line of 23.6% Retracement .
The Bears regrouped and pushed the Bulls back DOWN to the Line of 38.2% Retracement again .
The Bulls' next targets are 920 and 1000, the Bears' next target 750.

Quote from mu200411:01-25-09 12:33 AM


It looked like a Trench Warfare between the Bulls and the Bears.
Bulls' territory was below the Line of 61.8% retracement.
Bears' territory was above the Line of 38.2% retracement.
The Bears pushed DOWN, the Bulls pushed back UP.
The Bears pushed DOWN again, the Bulls managed to push back to the Line of 50% retracement.
The Bears pushed DOWN once again, the Bulls pushed back to just above the Line of 50% retracement once more.

 

[mu200411]

There was near +30 points UP as expected .
It turned out to be three five-waves UP or a bigger five-waves and an even bigger five-waves .
There may be a measured move UP if the Bulls can defend the 840 level or the Line of 38.2% Retracement .
Mup pinpointed the High again .

Quote from Mup:01-24-09 12:11 PM
Through that Traffic light area it seems so 881 is next eyeball...

edit
Hmm... that 876 was a lesser 161.8 ext normally the 881 would be a far more soild pressure point.. but if it over balances (closes out) -8.50 last ALt then its changing degree from that 876 and 864 is the next higher alt

Quote from mu200411:01-24-09 12:11 PM should be 03:11 PM

The last three turned out to be a five .
There may be a measured move of 300, 30, 60 points UP .