Ewj: elliott wave

The segment between 1974 and 2000 is very challenging for a newbie. There is no clear wave pattern, so I make some measurement. Wave 1949-V)I1]-1952 moves up 83.70%. Wave 1952-V)I3]-1953 retraces 13.79%. Wave 1953-V)I3]-1961 moves up 191.43%. Wave 1949-V)I-1961 moves up 623.28%. Wave 1961-V)II-1974 retraces 43.06%.
Wave 1974-1976 moves up 80.02% is nearly equal to Wave V)I1], so it may be V)III1]. Wave 1982-1987 moves up 256.71% is in the same order of magnitude of Wave V)I3] which moves up 191.43%, so it may be Wave V)III3]. Wave 1990-2000 moves up 407.97% is in the same order of magnitude as Wave V)III3], so it may be Wave V)III5].
There is a small segment 1987-1990 which is very difficult to count, can it be a Wave V)III4] running correction?
 
Is Black Monday 1987 Correction qualified for a Cycle Wave IV Correction? It retraced 41.16% in 2 months, while Cycle Wave II retraced 43.06% in 94 months. Size is OK, but time is not OK. 2 months may be too short for a Primary Wave Correction too.
The sequence 1990-V)III5]1)-1992-2)-1992-3)1-1994-3)2-1994-3)3-1996-3)4-1996-3)5-1998-V)III5]5)-2000 is less questionable. So Cycle Wave V)III components may be 1974-V)III1]-1976-III2]-1982-III3]-1987-III4]-1990-III5]-2000.
 
The World Forum of Elliott Wave Counters should have planned for "The End of Cycle Wave III Convention" at the beginning of the last Primary Wave 5] in October 1998, and set the date of the Convention to be 6 months, equal the length of wave 5]1) + 5]2), after the beginning of the last Intermediate Wave 5]5) in October 2000, which is the optimum time to announced the Convention date. During the Convention someone should have pronounced "The Cycle Wave III ended on Jan 14th, 2000 at hour: minute, at Dow 11,908.50", as Elliott himself had done before.
That will make life easier for most Elliott Wave Followers.
 
The October 2000 Forum might have predicted the Cycle Wave V)IV to end 43.06% lower at Dow ~ 6,780 in about 94 months or ~ November 2007 about the same size and duration as Cycle Wave V)II.
The low of Cycle Wave V)IV to date is 7181.47, a retracement of 39.69%, and 33 months away from the top. A little bit too small but a lot too short. It may be Primary Wave V)IVa]. The wave that ended on July 19, 2007 may Primary Wave V)IVb]. The Primary Wave V)IVc] may go down to Dow ~ 6,780 in about 1 to 3 years. Cycle Wave V)V may run from that point to the year 2020 to Dow ~ 34,000 (=Primary Wave V)III5]).
If Cycle Wave V)IV have ended, the present wave may be Intermediate Wave V)V)1]5) which will run up more than 21 months, to Dow 16,800 or more, in 2009.
 
I have 3 alternative counts for the 2000 - 2007 segment. At least 2 are wrong and the last one may be wrong too.
The first alternative is the most bullish. Cycle Wave V)III ended on March 12th, 2003, and Intermediate Wave V)V1]3) has just ended on July 19th, 2007. After Intermediate Wave V)V1]4) ends above 11,926.79, Primary Wave V)V1]5) may rise to 16,800. This alternative count will be invalidated when Dow falls below 10,794.95.
 

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The second alternative is a Cycle Wave V)IV running correction. Primary Wave V)IVc] may ended around Dow 10K. This alternative will be invalidate when Dow rises above 14,121.04 or drops below 7,181.47.
The third alternative count is the most bearish. Cycle Wave V)IV is an irregular correction which should end below 7,181.47. This count will be invalidate when Dow rises above 14,121.04 or drops below 1,001.11, or Cycle Wave V)IV ends much above 7,181.47.
 

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At this moment, there is no way to predict how the market would turn out by using the Elliott Wave Pattern. This is the weak point of the Elliott Wave Principle. Those who expect a tool to foretold every moves of the market should leave Elliott Wave Principle alone. But this is also the strong point of the Elliott Wave Principle, because only the wave counter is wrong, the Elliott Wave Principle is always right.
Those who have patient should wait, when the Elliott Wave count tells something it is usually right.
 
In the 1987 Black Monday running correction of the newbie, the ratio of Intermediate Wave V)III3]c) to V)III3]a) is [1-(2,344.31/3,024.26)]/[1-(1,616.21/2,746.65)] = 0.5462.
In newbie's alternative count 1, Cycle Wave V)IV is a running correction, if the ratio is about the same, Primary Wave V)IVc] should end at [1-(7397.31/11,908.50)]*0.5462]*14121.04=11,198.81 just above the end of Intermediate Wave V)V1]4) in newbie's alternative count 2 at 11,926.79.
How do we know which one is correct?
In general there is 5-5-5 sequence of the consecutive descending degrees, but in a running correction there will be a 5-5-5 sequence of the consecutive ascending degrees. In count 1, there would be 5-5-5 of waves V)V3]-V)V4]a)-V)V4b)a. In count 2, it would be 5-5-5 of waves V)IV)b]c)-V)IVc]-V)V.
So a three waves down to 12K and rebound to new high is indicative of Intermediate Wave V)V1]5), a five is for Cycle Wave V)V.
Which is more likely?
If the segment from October 2005 to July 2007 looks like diagonal triangle or ascending wedge, it is more likely a 5th-wave or a c-wave than a 3rd-wave, so count 2 is more likely. If not, can't tell.
Count 3 is in effect when level 12K is broken and is more and more likely when Dow gets below 10,794.95, 7397.31 and 7,181.47 respectively.
I dare not count the recent waves, because I have just make two wrong counts. If I do count, I would have made ten wrong counts and many more.
 
July 19th, 2007 may be the end of wave V)V3] or V)IVb].
This is the third wrong count.
070719-wave1-070803-wave2-070824?-wave 3?
Waves 1 (9 sub-waves) and 2 (3-3-5? to 13,480?) are waves of Minor degree by date, but of Intermediate degree by size. Wave 3 may be >1000.
 
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