Ewj: elliott wave

...if this daily bar holds as is.... we could easily erase yesterday's drop.... another day
..... still 2 hours to go though....
.... if this was a test.... then it will shoot up easily....
.... possible wave 2 bottom....
.... if this is a wave 2 bottom.... then a long entry should be possible tomorrow
.... need to see how today ends though
Quote from elovemer:
....already 127% on ES ....
 
Quote from elovemer:

...am i the only one on the planet looking long here ?
... if so... that is a nice place to be

Well.... you were not completely alone....

I was long just before lunch, but just for about 2 hours....:D

Can you share perhaps a daily or hourly chart where you think we are now? I just cannot see any reason to be long...:(
 
Yeah, seems the masses are looking for a rally to sell, the 1260 break got everyone bearish. And the Nasdaq? Well, it being the heavy weight it is just adds to the bearish sentiment. Might close down 5 straight days here.


Quote from elovemer:

...am i the only one on the planet looking long here ?
... if so... that is a nice place to be
 
...well.... a wave 2 bottom... SHOULD end where today bottomed....
..... IF it is a wave 2 bottom.....THEN it is the safest long entry you can ask for over the long haul.... because you will NEVER get stopped out....at least for a possible year anyway....
....if you take a look at that last chart i posted about the 38 day cycle....you will see numbering on it....
..... 5 waves up .... where wave 1 and 2 are not visible in that time frame....
.... and then i posted another chart of a bullish M ... BEFORE today's action.... showing the best place to get long... either 127% or 161....
.... then i posted again about hitting 127%
.... on top of that.... if today turns out to be a down thrust... which it looks like it will be.... then the implications are obvious
.... in any case.... it should be obvious from here on out....because the market should reveal itself pretty quickly from here
.... the characteristic of a wave 2 bottom is that... EVERYONE wants to be short.....and that wave 2 nearly erases all of the gain from wave 1....
....IF THIS IS NOT A WAVE 2 BOTTOM.... THEN WE HAVE A LONG LONG WAY TO GO DOWN FROM HERE ! :0)
...if this is a wave 2 bottom... then yesterday's massive drop will be erased in short order......just watch what volume does on the close
....whether it is a wave 2 bottom or not.... the point is that you just can't pass up the opportunity to get long on a possible wave 2.... because the risk to reward is too great....
....price and volume action should be telling on the close
....edit... not trying to tell anyone what to do.... just expressing my view of the market... :)
.... about the wave count....
.... i saw two sets of 5 waves down on the daily... a complete cycle.... the last 5 waves i posted as "?" :0)
.... edit... i am not referring to any intraday entry here... LONG-term but with no possible stop-out
.... sorry Mu for the long post here
Quote from ed:

Can you share perhaps a daily or hourly chart where you think we are now? I just cannot see any reason to be long...:(
 
Elo,

Thanks for taking the time to type out such a detailed post!:)

I fully agree with you..... either way it goes from here will be a HUGE move......
 
5 straight down days NDX,COMP, only major indices to undercut the July lows this week. Noticed QQQQ had highest volume day since July 15 with a modest buying tail. Could(should) have had some professional accumulation today.

But I wouldn't read too much into an SPX reversal day when the higher betas were still quite weak.
 
I'm still in the upward bias camp elo :)

Been floods over here in the UK today so been on back up systems today :(

Anyway got a sharper C than I expected (at least we had the direction correct :) & were now down in between the the 78.6% and 88.6% still would fit a (b) wave of a larger degree Flat pattern.. classic "W/M" ratio's

Time wise I would of liked the 9/10th (point 8 ITD for the delta watchers ) as a low but if its come slightly early then I wont argue with it :D

120min SPX
 

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Rumor that Fannie and Freddie will be "backstopped" by the Government.
An announcement due out over the weekend, so it has been rumored.

:)
 
Thanks for the heads up Mike :)

To expand that larger Flat wave to the daily..

If this Flat b wave pattern plays out, could it, also be hinting at an Obama victory??
If the general perception that a Dem victory will be less favorable to the markets interests..

Daily SPX
 

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