Ewj: elliott wave

[Mup]

Daily ES #F

Needs to hold its 1:1 on the daily frame ( ie not close below it) otherwise it will be implusing ....

 

[Mup]

Approaching Mups T2 target of that Gap close...

If it goes much below that 1289 area, then I'll have to re-consider moving on to a more bearish Alt count...We got a interday delta turn between now and 13:30pm...

 

[mu200411]

New 22 months low in the Dow, with a BIG HEAD AND SHOULDERS confirmation. :eek:

 

[mu200411]

When the Market makes new low we have to make our change to the wave count.
A measured move down will drive INDU and SPX to near top of Intermediate wave V]V)V1]1) at 10753, 1163, 2153. If this level is exceeded we have to change our count to the WORST CASE SCENARIO.
For the time being, let's hope that COMPQ will make a triangular correction, not a measured move zigzag correction.

Quote from mu200411:06-21-08 11:31 AM

Worst Case Scenario.
We are looking down from the top of Grand Supercycle wave V], Supercycle wave V), Cycle wave IV (which began in 2000, 1990 in Japan), Primary wave b].
If the next rebound, c]1)3.4, from ending diagonal triangle, c]1)3.3:5iiiiiiivv, can not cross the resistance trendline, Minor wave c]1)3 may be confirmed by a low below March 17, 2008 low.

 

[mu200411]

New lows again in all indices after a significant pause, may be another measured move to go, -300, -30, -60 points.

 

[mu200411]

Measured move neared. Some significant rebound, +150, +30, +60 points soon.

 

[Mup]

Quote from Mup
then I'll have to re-consider moving on to a more bearish Alt count...

I'm still not comfortable with the EWI sky falling in count...of 1,2,i,ii ect ect...

The pattern has to many "corrective" features with overlaping wave structure for my "Frost bias" counting style...

Rather than the super bearish option of the EWI, I'd rather go on to a double zig-zag pattern of either the first wave of a larger corrective move down, or possably even part of a B wave of a flat...

see what you think ..

60min SPX

 

[mu200411]

The Dow is going down as Minute WAVE V]V)IVc]1)3.5 which nearing a measured move. There may be a rebound to 12,900 level soon.
SPX and COMPQ are still qualified for Subminuette WAVE V]V)V1]5)1.2:cv which is near measured move. There may be a rebound to 1,335 and 2420 level soon.

 

[Landis82]

Top of "b" was 1404.05 in the SPX on June 5th.
Bottom of wave "i" was 1331.29, for a move of 72.76

Top of wave "iv" was 1335.63
1335.63 - 72.76 =

1262.87

SPX

 

[Mup]

I also like that 1263 area Mike...

I've been scribbling on the classic waterfall ratio's to target 1263.71 as T1 for a double pattern.
Or 1222.02 as T2 for a Triple pattern...

See what you think on this 60min SPX...)