Evidence Of Improving Economy?

Quote from limitdown:

Mecro, we should meet someday!

Your comments are absolutely correct, and what's more, in the smoke filled rooms of both parties, they agree with you, including the Federal Reserve fact finding teams of junior economists.

The reality is we have been fed just so much rehtoric that reality no longer matters. If you eat sugar cereal for breakfast, how long does it take you to realize that all that new found energy is not based on long term strength but fast burning calories? Not long.

All the fiscal stimulus through significant, no record increases in the M2 & M3 money supply, along with <1% interest rates being offered on most Discount Rates (Fed Res term), most bank savings accounts and other interest rate products has masked the true deficiency in the overall economy.

What does not hold water are these other rhetorical smart mouthed comments:
1) "we inherited the deficit from the other guys"
2) "jobless recovery"
3) "profit recession"
4) "NO, we're not in a depression"

The damage that has been done, including all these tax breaks for those who never needed them will take better than 2 Administrations to work off, that's 8 years of growth just to get back to where we were before this group took over in 2000.

No, I'm not Democratic, nor Republican. I'm a Trader!
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Hehe thank you for the compliments. If you're in NYC area, sounds good.

I can't really blame Bush for the situation. There is nothing that could be done whatsoever when a bubble creates a ton of new high paying jobs and then the burst makes the majority of them dissapear. Not his fault that the average American has no more concept of living within the means. Who didn't get caught up in the debt mess? I know I did but I actually learned my lesson.

Who knows what the government has up their sleeves. US officials may seem stupid, but this country has gotten through so many debacles and is still the top nation in the world.
 
I read somewhere a good sign of economic indication is to look at ciggerrette butts thrown out on the street. If they are smoked to the filter, it means people are conserving. If thrown out with some stick left, people are spending.
 
Economics 9101 - Grad School

The solution will be a combination of a few things, any of which are being discussed in the political corridors, and will have a direct positive effect upon the health of the nation and the markets:

a) mandatory public service in exchange for paid college degree at a public or state college

b) guaranteed government infrastructure jobs, where any able bodied man/woman can apply and work on building, construction or infrastructure projects as they see fit

c) overall change in enforcement of the EEOC so that more qualified persons or those close to qualifying can obtain the jobs instead of the current practices of being over qualified and fully trained with no cost or overhead to the employer
 
Reading some of these posts, I can only assume many of you are young. Not dumb, just young. I was in my late teens and early 20's during the last real recession....1973-1975 or so. If you guys think this is a "bad" economy, you're nuts. Most people getting out of college had no hope finding a job in their field. I met engineers flipping hamburgers in Florida. I remeber subdivisions near Titusville, Melbourne and Cocoa Beach where there were a number of abandoned houses.....those laid off engineers couldn't make the payments. Unemployment got so bad in Florida that they quit making us come downtown to get our checks, nor were we required to try to get a job. They mailed us our unemployment checks. I also remember collecting bottles and buying Ragu Spaghetti sauce (dinner for less than $2)and some REAL cheap beer (Red, White & Blue .99/six pack). God, I sound like my dad! One day at work just before I was laid off, A guy offered me $100 to quit so he could apply for my job ($4/hr construction). We had gas line and you only got gas on odd/even days....if your lic plate ended in an even number, you got gas on the even number day and so on. I forget how high unemployment got, but it seemed like ever other person in Florida was out of work. Those were some of the best days of my life. Don't let all the doom and gloomers get you down. Your best days are always ahead of you.



:D :D
 
Arnie, i hear ya man. This is just the start.....its an election year as well, so things will not get worse before then, forward thinking, there are a lot of signs that point to some harsh weather ahead..........I would love for a nice bull market to come back, roses and win, and all that .......
 
Quote from ertrader1:

[BBusiness's are becoming leaner and more efficent...getting rid of the Suit and Tie middel man and dead weight. ( the monkey in the middel is an endanger species, and so is the "cubical Jockey)

The threat of a 9 to 5er losing their job is just around the corner for all who fall into that categ.

What is happening is total shift in what we would call GDP. Soon, GDP numbers will include all the outsorcing and Multinational manufacturing of US goods.

The latter part of the theory is that this shift towards efficent labor will cause a huge gap between the have and havenots.
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Yes, you are correct. And the answer to what happens is simple:
No middle class = no corporate profits

And one might also realize:
No middle class = no government revenue

Also... there is no major middle class employer on the horizon. Nanotech and biotech only need a bunch of PHDs and some good machines.

I'd love for someone to talk me out of this, but:
1. this economy is precariously balanced
2. i can count off many stressors to that balance (interest rates, demographics, debt, asset prices, global competition, productivity, etc, etc.)
3. all i see in the way of a recovery is government hype and consumerism.

Our only hope is "Consumonomics".
 
In my part of rural northern New England, the local economy is tourist/recreation and retirement/vacation home driven - sort of like what Grob described about his area of AZ. Local businesses have enjoyed years of steady growth until 03 when figures suggest they were off 10 - 18%. The big "tell" we key off is how the winter season went in Florida which wasn't good in 02-03 so we knew we were going to have a bad year. People shy away from the expensive inns and restaurants and the leveraged ones are definitely hurting. This year the anecdotal reports we are getting is that the Florida season was "improved" so we are cautiously optimistic for this summer. Also, we are expecting a big increase in Canadian and European bargain hunters.

Arnie, I hear you. What a mess that was. I believe the high school class of 1974 was the all time largest in US history and nobody was hiring. We couldn't even get drafted. Also, then, everybody wanted to work. It wasn't like now where we have to hire Jamaicans, Russians, etc. to do all the "dirty" jobs because there either aren't enough American kids or they are too picky and highbrow. On the other hand, it was not depression like then, our standard of living was gigantic thanks to the prosperity of our parents.


Geo.
 
The best economy ever,
For Oil companies, (gasoline prices double.. lol no inflation) Treasury money funneled to the Halliburtons, Betchels, Rand corp that is...

Ahh yes lets not forget, taxpayer funded outsourcing incentives for large corps

Who cares for the common citizens? Great economy/stupefied public. Nice going!

But hey, we can always attack another defenseless country on false pretenses, as long as that type of economy works for the "right" people.

Or export more debt.....
 
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