Not calling for the end of the world. Just a continuation of a major bear market that will hit stocks for many years to come. People will still live and life will go on.. but eventually they will learn a new financial lesson.
--MIKE
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Everyone thinks the world is ending!
- Thread starter bungrider
- Start date
Not calling for the end of the world. Just a continuation of a major bear market that will hit stocks for many years to come. People will still live and life will go on.. but eventually they will learn a new financial lesson.
--MIKE
Not aimed at anyone. Just food for thought. Either way.
Quote from Trend Fader:
Not calling for the end of the world. Just a continuation of a major bear market that will hit stocks for many years to come. People will still live and life will go on.. but eventually they will learn a new financial lesson.
--MIKE
Just ask Gov. Schwartze.....how do you spell it? Steroids have consequences. I'm sure he wasn't thrilled about his open-heart surgery to repair damaged valves.
The Fed is gonna have to pay the piper too. Now that their juice has run its course we can drop au natural, the way nature intended, and this bear market can run its course and clear the dead wood of excess capacity away just like a Bush promoted forestry campaign.
I don't believe the last rout in stocks was adequate. The whole process was on track but the gov't intervened like Ronald McDonald shoving a Big Mac down a fasting Monk's throat. We need a serious purge. The proverbial prom queen with her finger down her throat. It might not end until we have debt default, which is a wacko take on things but I think the system is almost that unstable at this point.
The Fed is gonna have to pay the piper too. Now that their juice has run its course we can drop au natural, the way nature intended, and this bear market can run its course and clear the dead wood of excess capacity away just like a Bush promoted forestry campaign.
I don't believe the last rout in stocks was adequate. The whole process was on track but the gov't intervened like Ronald McDonald shoving a Big Mac down a fasting Monk's throat. We need a serious purge. The proverbial prom queen with her finger down her throat. It might not end until we have debt default, which is a wacko take on things but I think the system is almost that unstable at this point.
"Americans think that Chinese will spend like Americans."
HAHAHA.... i was born in china. i was taught to save when i was little. i had a savings account since i was 8, and i saved most of my allowence. you won't see the parallel here in US in most cases.
outsourcing. you only can outsource so many jobs. alot of jobs require location proximity. you think northrop wants to outsource their EE/ME/CS ppl to work on the new joint strike fighters? not likely. outsourcing gets the most attention, because history tells us that people always wants a scapgoat when $hit goes against them. blame the robots on the aseembly lines in the 1970s. blame the computers in work places in the 1980s. blame the indians/chinese in the 2000.
i read this from somewhere, correct me if i'm wrong. but in 1995, there were about 250k scicences/engineering graduates in US. that number dropped to around 200k in 2000. i think that tells you something about the state of the education system, and laziness of the young people. while, 135k engineers graduates from india every year. a good portion of them have PHD's. why do you think alot of companies wants gov to losen the worker visa program? because there aren't enough people in the US to fullfill the education background to work in those positions!
sooo many people in the country spent way too much money tha t they don't have. how do you think the americans can keep borrowing? who's lending them the money? where does the chinese/american trade deficit goes? back into the bond markets in america. chinese workers save as much as they can, you can consider that as a tradition. and the money goes striaght to the american borrowing process.
in another word, the chinese are selling goods to foreigners that are borrowing money from them to pay for it. if someone squeeze that follow of money to america, it's going to be the 21st century version Oct, 1929.
HAHAHA.... i was born in china. i was taught to save when i was little. i had a savings account since i was 8, and i saved most of my allowence. you won't see the parallel here in US in most cases.
outsourcing. you only can outsource so many jobs. alot of jobs require location proximity. you think northrop wants to outsource their EE/ME/CS ppl to work on the new joint strike fighters? not likely. outsourcing gets the most attention, because history tells us that people always wants a scapgoat when $hit goes against them. blame the robots on the aseembly lines in the 1970s. blame the computers in work places in the 1980s. blame the indians/chinese in the 2000.
i read this from somewhere, correct me if i'm wrong. but in 1995, there were about 250k scicences/engineering graduates in US. that number dropped to around 200k in 2000. i think that tells you something about the state of the education system, and laziness of the young people. while, 135k engineers graduates from india every year. a good portion of them have PHD's. why do you think alot of companies wants gov to losen the worker visa program? because there aren't enough people in the US to fullfill the education background to work in those positions!
sooo many people in the country spent way too much money tha t they don't have. how do you think the americans can keep borrowing? who's lending them the money? where does the chinese/american trade deficit goes? back into the bond markets in america. chinese workers save as much as they can, you can consider that as a tradition. and the money goes striaght to the american borrowing process.
in another word, the chinese are selling goods to foreigners that are borrowing money from them to pay for it. if someone squeeze that follow of money to america, it's going to be the 21st century version Oct, 1929.
Quote from Trend Fader:
My answers..
1. I dont mind if their economy cools down but there are 2 major problems. One is that the gov. issues the loans its not so much of a supply demand type market. Which means corrupt officials are allocating money in the wrong places through bribes. In turn this means that a lot of money went to really stupid projects and pointless places that will not pan out.. which will lead to massive debt default.
Also most of the money thats building up China is coming from the USA.. and the Americans think that the Chinese people spend money like Americans. They want to flood China with mega shopping Malls and restaurants similar to that of NYC.. the problem is that all of these places will be empty because Chinese people do not have spending habits similar to those of Americans. Its a huge mistake by the American business men. Read this article http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=sto...hicagotrib/fearsgrowinchinathatboomwillgobust
" In Beijing, local officials looked at a neighborhood south of Tiananmen Square and saw what they thought was a bright future: a street where gleaming glass shopping centers should stand on a newly widened boulevard. They leveled a mile-long neighborhood, casting out thousands of residents and two years ago built a new shopping center that nobody seems to need. Of 14 retail projects, 12 are empty. "
2. Rates will go up.. and the problem is that the entire recovery was mostly based on people getting things they really dont need because of the convenience of low rates. Once that stimilus is gone.. the economy will not be able to sustain itself. I would love to see GM continue selling $40k SUV's to consumers when they no longer can have an atractive finance option like 0 down and super low rates. This recovery was mostly fueled by massive debt which was mainly caused by mortgange refinancing.. which gave tons of new money to consumers. Take away this stimulus and the game is over. The situation of your average American is ridiculous. I just cant believe how much debt people are taking.. this ultimately forces me to believe in the devaluation of the Dollar.
3. Iraq is a complete mess... and I hate to admit it.. but the whole thing is a waste of American life and money. Absolutely no end in sight.. even Bush himself admits this.
4. Outsourcing is probably one of the major catalysts that makes me extremely bearish. The truth is that the US labor market no longer maintains a broad competetive edge like it once did that fueled the Go-Go 90's. Lets face it... in most cases foreigners can do exactly what we do and at a much cheaper price. Besides biotechs and some medical related fields.. we have nothing more to offer than countries like China or India. The biggest issue will be tech.. where in many cases places like India have a superior pool of skilled workers in electrical engenireering.
5. FNM and FRE are a complete joke and everyone on Wall Street knows this. If the housing bubble does bust i bet they will become the center spotlight... all we need is someone with balls of Eliot Spitzer to open up their books and they will be finished.
--MIKE
Quote from Trend Fader:
Also most of the money thats building up China is coming from the USA.. and the Americans think that the Chinese people spend money like Americans. They want to flood China with mega shopping Malls and restaurants similar to that of NYC.. the problem is that all of these places will be empty because Chinese people do not have spending habits similar to those of Americans. Its a huge mistake by the American business men. Read this article http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=sto...hicagotrib/fearsgrowinchinathatboomwillgobust
" In Beijing, local officials looked at a neighborhood south of Tiananmen Square and saw what they thought was a bright future: a street where gleaming glass shopping centers should stand on a newly widened boulevard. They leveled a mile-long neighborhood, casting out thousands of residents and two years ago built a new shopping center that nobody seems to need. Of 14 retail projects, 12 are empty. "
That's short-sighted. It might take a few years of marketing, but the Chinese will learn to love buying all that crap just as much as we do. Never underestimate the power of America's finely honed marketing abilities.
You're right on about everything else though.
the word: "chinese", are you refering to the people in very large cities like beijing and shanghai, or chinese people in general? i can reassure you that the pictures you see on TV of china is the best of china, nothing gets better than that. but they failed to show you what it actually looks like in the rest of the country. if you're thinking about marketing to the 1.4-1.5 billion people, but youre actually targetting the people that can afford to buy luxury goods that are living in large cities, which is composed of a much smaller group of people. marketing? a good portion of people cannot read. its not america, not everyone has access to TV, not to mention internet. how are you going to market to those "unreachable"/majority, of the people? plus, people in those situations worry more about daily survival than snatching up useless crap
average salary in a decent job in a large chinese city is around 3000-5000 yuan/month, divide that by 8. you get 500-600 dollars US. how do you expect people to buy alot of things with that type of salary? automobiles? in your dreams! only the upper class chinese can afford it. yes, buick is doing very well in the chiense market, but the last report was that the domestic automobile output finally outpaced foreign brands.
people that are manufactuering goods for export are migrant workers. those workers came from very poor, rural area. they save every penny they can to send it back home. spending? its not going to happen till their next life. you can think of them as the illegal mexican workers that works in the fields of california. they are saving money, not spending!
average salary in a decent job in a large chinese city is around 3000-5000 yuan/month, divide that by 8. you get 500-600 dollars US. how do you expect people to buy alot of things with that type of salary? automobiles? in your dreams! only the upper class chinese can afford it. yes, buick is doing very well in the chiense market, but the last report was that the domestic automobile output finally outpaced foreign brands.
people that are manufactuering goods for export are migrant workers. those workers came from very poor, rural area. they save every penny they can to send it back home. spending? its not going to happen till their next life. you can think of them as the illegal mexican workers that works in the fields of california. they are saving money, not spending!
Quote from FireWalker:
That's short-sighted. It might take a few years of marketing, but the Chinese will learn to love buying all that crap just as much as we do. Never underestimate the power of America's finely honed marketing abilities.
You're right on about everything else though.
Well some of that may be true, but entrepreneurs don't usually throw money around without looking at the potential market.
Most of China's population is rural, but that still leaves about a half billion people who live in cities. That's one hell of a big market who loves to buy cell phones and computers. Look at the rate they are snatching up cars. Up 80% or something from last year. Yes only 1% of the population can afford a car, but next year it will likely be 2%. 2% of 500,000,000 is a lot of cars.
The world isn't ending, but it is undergoing some huge change. (well, the American world might be ending)
Americans somehow think we are the center of everything and the rest of the world walks around barefoot in huts and villages.
We're a blip. And one giant market inefficiency.
Most of China's population is rural, but that still leaves about a half billion people who live in cities. That's one hell of a big market who loves to buy cell phones and computers. Look at the rate they are snatching up cars. Up 80% or something from last year. Yes only 1% of the population can afford a car, but next year it will likely be 2%. 2% of 500,000,000 is a lot of cars.
The world isn't ending, but it is undergoing some huge change. (well, the American world might be ending)
Americans somehow think we are the center of everything and the rest of the world walks around barefoot in huts and villages.
We're a blip. And one giant market inefficiency.