"EVERYONE clamoring for rate cuts at this time... BAD IDEA!
- Thread starter Scataphagos
- Start date
Inflation has been defeated.
The fed needs to cut big and the government needs to send out stimulus checks!
The recession must be avoided/reduced in severity at all costs!!
The fed needs to cut big and the government needs to send out stimulus checks!
The recession must be avoided/reduced in severity at all costs!!
Last edited:
I may be wrong but didn't the fed pivot in late October 2023???
Thats when stocks surged and never once dropped until literally this past Friday...s&p up over 16% since January 1st
Imagine how much cash they would.print in the next recession ....geez it would be a sweet amount of handouts....
They did a one-off baby pivot with no follow through. What that chart is referring to is a cycle - more aggressively like starting with 50pbs with follow through over & over.
If the cuts are small & real spread out that can be good or neutral for the market.
Just looking at some possibilities based on the past.
Last edited:
I'd be surprised if the Biden administration did nothing and let the markets collapse into an election cycle. If we see negative NFP next month the Fed will start cutting aggressively & the markets would fall precipitously.
I mean it happened in 2008 under Bush so I guess it could happen again. It's a strange economy where the hyperscalers are spending trillions to invest in AI while on the other hand the consumer is almost tapped out except the high end. Even they have slowed down their luxury buying (Kering, LVMHV, Hermes, etc. are all crashing) except for Ferrari I guess. I think if the airlines, cruise ships & hotels fall you'll know its over for sure.
I mean it happened in 2008 under Bush so I guess it could happen again. It's a strange economy where the hyperscalers are spending trillions to invest in AI while on the other hand the consumer is almost tapped out except the high end. Even they have slowed down their luxury buying (Kering, LVMHV, Hermes, etc. are all crashing) except for Ferrari I guess. I think if the airlines, cruise ships & hotels fall you'll know its over for sure.
Hyperscalers will soon realize the billions they are spending will not show the returns they expect. They are chasing because everyone else is chasing.....
You are going to see the collapse as the Hyperscalers pull back their billions ....nvda will lose more than half their market capitalization!!!
I spoke about this.in this thread here.....
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-what-if-no-monetary-gain-is-possible.379690/
