Every down January since 1950 was followed by a bear market

dealmaker · Feb 22, 2020

"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1231206939121635328

"

volpri · Feb 22, 2020

But this years different. Mr T is in the drivers seat.........lol

southall · Feb 22, 2020

volpri said:
But this years different. Mr T is in the drivers seat.........lol

But Comrade Bernie's Black Swan will take down the markets by 50%....... lol (not)

SunTrader · Feb 22, 2020

So here is monthly SPX chart for 2010 clearly showing Jan as a down month but with a much higher close at year end. Yes it moved sideways for a time but a nice roughly 13% return nonetheless in the end. What am I missing?

SunTrader · Feb 22, 2020

Meanwhile the Putin propaganda machine is working OT but can't make up its mind who for next. Bernie or Dumpie?

volpri · Feb 22, 2020

southall said:
But Comrade Bernie's Black Swan will take down the markets by 50%....... lol (not)

Hilarious.....however me thinks it won’t fly in America. Yet, that is. Comrade Bernie is predictable. At least with him you know what you are getting. All the rest ..well...it is ones best guess. Mr T will win with a landslide. No black buzzards flying in, in this election.

Regardless, if by some freak event comrade Bernie wins and the market crashes just a great opportunity for short-term swing traders and intraday trader to short and rake in the $$$$ so more taxes can be paid to fund ”the comrades” socialized medicine...free college...higher minimum wage.

southall · Feb 23, 2020

SunTrader said:
What am I missing?

S&P went up after Jan 2010 but then fell 17% from March to June.

So if the S&P analogs 2010 then we could first go above 3400 but then down to 2800. Then there is a rally in the second half of this year, and new highs after Trump gets re elected.

However in 2010 this Bull was just getting started, but now in 2020, it is long in the tooth.

So the high we get in March 2020 could be a multi year high (like the high in March 2000). It could be the end of this bull market.

Personally i was thinking this bull market ends in 2021 or 2022 (Its not going to last forever!)

But there is always the chance it could top this year, with a 50% crash if Bernie wins, but still down over 20% even if Trump gets re elected.

Snuskpelle · Feb 23, 2020

SunTrader said:
Meanwhile the Putin propaganda machine is working OT but can't make up its mind who for next. Bernie or Dumpie?

Standard Putin strategy is to support both at the same time to achieve the objective of internal division. It's also being applied in the country I live in (Sweden) where both far right and left groups have revenue streams traced to people close to Putin.

murray t turtle · Feb 23, 2020

dealmaker said:
"
https://twitter.com/x/status/1231206939121635328
"

%%
JAN close [SPY/S&P 500] is still a great 52 week forcaster/Stock Traders Almanac, book. Its about 88% accurate. But when wrong; can go real wrong; 1987+ 2009.LOL...………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...Its a young bull, because bear of 2018, with 20% bear market correction ended that bull. Have to restart the count.

southall · Feb 23, 2020

murray t turtle said:
%%
Its a young bull, because bear of 2018, with 20% bear market correction ended that bull. Have to restart the count.

Nice try, 2018 was not quite 20%. So not a bear market. Not even for 1 day.