Quote from Cocaine:
Can you explain why you think so? All I ever hear from you is cheerleading. And I read your journal from last summer when you held those awful positions against you and got lucky that the market bailed you out. The market will not always treat you this way. It seems you have no concept of risk management. You sound like a "going down with the ship" kind of guy.
There are many reasons why the selloff we have seen this week isn't a big deal and is a buying opp.
First, if you look at the 3 months chart for the nasdaq you will see that many times during the rally it has corrected to previous support levels, but rebounded soon after. This happened back in Nov5. And a few others. (chart)
I also see people justifying why the current rally may end. There is speculation over poor numbers, economy slowing, oil, 'chart breakdown' program selling, and so on.
however, as my summer journal
shown i was right in that there was no COMPELLING reason for the markets to continue selling off in July. And thats why it has rebounded to hew high as I said it would. Bernake would stop raising rates, (and he did) so the only direction was up.
An example of a compelling reason for a longer term reversal (1-5 years) would be a terrorist attack on US soil (like 911), severe breakdown in international relations & turmoil (70's), extreme overvaluation combined with parabolic chart (late 90's & 20's).
Even the 1987 crash rebounded soon after (only 5 years) because there was no good reason for the selloff to happen. Valuations were high, but not like in the late 90's.
Mondays triple digit selloff was the result of profit taking stemming from mediocre blackfriday sales and poor Wallmart earnings. No compelling reason for the selloff. Just usual profit taking as has been seen beforein the past 6 months.