Ever had a supernatural experience?
- Thread starter hapaboy
- Start date
Statistics are not on your side because you have NO IDEA
what the statistics ARE.
This was my point in my last post.
You said:So, in order for you to be right, you'd have to prove to me that dreams vivid as to make one write a letter do actually happen often.
Here you are attempting to REVERSE the burden of proof.
You are the one claiming supernatural stuff here.
So YOU must provide the statistics.
So AGAIN... I ask you.... what statistics have you collected
which proves that *THIS CASE* lies outside the expected
statistical norm for dreams like this?
In generic form, it looks like this:
1) Person X dreams of event Y
2) Event Y occurs in the near future
As I stated before.... people only tend to remember and report
the cases when they are CORRECT. But "correct cases" are
part of the expected set of possibilities. So when someone does
report something like this, its kinda like.. well yeah DUH, it
has to happen sometimes.
Ya know... ive had dreams of family and friends dying.
Ive been WRONG 100% of the time. What does this tell me?
Nothing. People have dreams of people dying and they DO.
What does this tell me NOTHING.
Without an objective measurement to determine odds, and
the natural human bias to only report events like
this that turn out true, we have no rational basis to make
estimates of any sort.
Your aunt may have already had 500 dreams of
relatives dying before this one, and she was wrong every
single time, until now, making her hit rate ony 1 in 500. Who knows.
In other words... you have ZERO evidence that shows there
was anything supernatural occurring in this case.
peace
axeman
what the statistics ARE.
This was my point in my last post.
You said:So, in order for you to be right, you'd have to prove to me that dreams vivid as to make one write a letter do actually happen often.
Here you are attempting to REVERSE the burden of proof.
You are the one claiming supernatural stuff here.
So YOU must provide the statistics.
So AGAIN... I ask you.... what statistics have you collected
which proves that *THIS CASE* lies outside the expected
statistical norm for dreams like this?
In generic form, it looks like this:
1) Person X dreams of event Y
2) Event Y occurs in the near future
As I stated before.... people only tend to remember and report
the cases when they are CORRECT. But "correct cases" are
part of the expected set of possibilities. So when someone does
report something like this, its kinda like.. well yeah DUH, it
has to happen sometimes.
Ya know... ive had dreams of family and friends dying.
Ive been WRONG 100% of the time. What does this tell me?
Nothing. People have dreams of people dying and they DO.
What does this tell me NOTHING.
Without an objective measurement to determine odds, and
the natural human bias to only report events like
this that turn out true, we have no rational basis to make
estimates of any sort.
Your aunt may have already had 500 dreams of
relatives dying before this one, and she was wrong every
single time, until now, making her hit rate ony 1 in 500. Who knows.
In other words... you have ZERO evidence that shows there
was anything supernatural occurring in this case.
peace
axeman
Guy is getting on a plane.
Has a vision of the plane going down.
Gets off the plane.
Plane goes down in flames.
Amazing? Yes or no.
Ever consider that only people who have this feeling that DIDNT
get on the plane, and therefore SURIVIVED to tell about it
are the only ones you hear from
You've heard of survivorship bias right?
Ever wonder what percentage of people think about the plane
going down before they get on one? I bet its damn high.
Is there really anything amazing going on in scenarios like this?
How about this....
Your thinking about a friend...and the phone rings.
Its them.
Shocked and amazed????
If I showed you the last 20 signals of a trading system with
a 100% win rate, and good profit factor, would you start trading
it with real money???
I sure hope not. And I sure hope you guys dont develop trading
systems the way you observe these spooky events with
such incredibly small data points, and complete LACK of
statistics backing you up
peace
axeman
Has a vision of the plane going down.
Gets off the plane.
Plane goes down in flames.
Amazing? Yes or no.
Ever consider that only people who have this feeling that DIDNT
get on the plane, and therefore SURIVIVED to tell about it
are the only ones you hear from
You've heard of survivorship bias right?
Ever wonder what percentage of people think about the plane
going down before they get on one? I bet its damn high.
Is there really anything amazing going on in scenarios like this?
How about this....
Your thinking about a friend...and the phone rings.
Its them.
Shocked and amazed????
If I showed you the last 20 signals of a trading system with
a 100% win rate, and good profit factor, would you start trading
it with real money???
I sure hope not. And I sure hope you guys dont develop trading
systems the way you observe these spooky events with
such incredibly small data points, and complete LACK of
statistics backing you up
peace
axeman
I'm sure many people have dreams like that. They just don't have dreams that are vivid enough to make them write it in a letter, expressing NO DOUBT AT ALL that the dream was true. Cause if they would, there's be more letters like that.
I have hundreds of friends, all with elderly relatives. I've never heard someone writing such a letter. I frequent forums and chatrooms where I've discussed things like this, never heard of such a letter. I've done searches on the internet looking for a similar story, never saw anything about someone writing such a letter.
The one time someone had such a vivid dream and did write the letter, it was true. Sounds pretty statistically rare to me...
Phil
Yeah, I think we're friends, Rowenwood, but pls consider, my trading forex for 16 straight hours... I may be a little dizzy by about now and my memory a tad frazzled... we most likely are good friends pls don't let my rattled condition influence our friendship - I'll get it together.
mytwocents shakes my root loose.
later, buddy.
mytwocents shakes my root loose.
later, buddy.
"Sounding statistically rare" does not make it so.
NUMBERS make it so.
Further.... are you claiming that when someone has a vivid
dream and writes a letter about it, this somehow makes
it statistically more relevant? How so??
What if I had a not-so vivid dream of 9/11 on 9/8??
Would my vision be LESS statistically relevant simply because
it was not vivid, or because I didnt write a letter. Of course not.
peace
axeman
NUMBERS make it so.
Further.... are you claiming that when someone has a vivid
dream and writes a letter about it, this somehow makes
it statistically more relevant? How so??
What if I had a not-so vivid dream of 9/11 on 9/8??
Would my vision be LESS statistically relevant simply because
it was not vivid, or because I didnt write a letter. Of course not.
peace
axeman
You're wasting your time. I've debated axe ad infinitum on this and he is absolutely convinced that there is no evidence for the supernatural. You'll never have a meaninglful dialogue with him on this topic as he will throw out all eye witness accounts.
It doesn't matter whether it's Christian healing, NDE's, OOB's etc., etc. - all of it is immediately thrown out.
You'll debate endlessly and never get the slightest admission that maybe, just maybe, the XX billion people on planet earth that have experienced the supernatural and spiritual could be right....