I am here posting the link to Rerenc M. Miskolczi's ground breaking paper published in Hungary in in early 2007. it is
http://owww.met.hu/idojaras/IDOJARAS_vol111_No1_01.pdf
And a more accessible critique by Ken Gregory.
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/The_Saturated_Greenhouse_Effect.htm
Few here will be able to follow the arguments in detail in the Miskolczi paper. I cannot. It requires highly specialized knowledge. Even an expert in the physics of thermal and radiative fluxes will require a long time with this paper, and we should expect it will be some time yet before its full impact is appreciated, assuming some egregious error is not discovered.
I'll quote only a couple paragraphs from the conclusions on page 39.
"In general, the thermal structure of the atmosphere assures that the absorbed surface upward radiation is equal to the downward atmospheric radiation. It seems that the Earth's atmosphere maintains the balance between the absorbed short wave and emitted long wave radiation by keeping the total flux optical depth close to the theoretical equilibrium values.
...On local scale the regulatory role of the water vapor is apparent. On global scale, however, there can not be any direct water vapor feedback mechanism, working against the total energy balance requirement of the system. Runaway greenhouse theories contradict to the energy balance equations and therefore, can not work." [underlining is mine]
I now feel fully vindicated in my several assertions here that Hansen's assumption of positive feedback is illogical and impossible. Why he did not realize this from early on I do not understand.
Here is the introductory paragraphs to Gregory's critique of the Miskolczi paper. I strongly encourage you to read the critique in its entirety.
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/The_Saturated_Greenhouse_Effect.htm
"The paper,Greenhouse Effect in Semi-Transparent Planetary Atmospheres by Ferenc M. Miskolczi shows that the current greenhouse effect equations are incomplete because they do not include the correct boundary conditions. The new theory presented in Miskolczi's paper shows that the atmosphere maintains a “saturated” greenhouse effect, controlled by water vapor content.
Considering that we are told "the science is settled", one would think that the strength of the greenhouse effect (GHE) on Earth would be calculated based on atmospheric physics. That is, the computer models of the atmosphere would incorporate the physics of how the greenhouse effect works, so that by inputting some measured physical properties, the atmospheric gases, the models would determine the strength of the greenhouse effect and the surface temperatures. Unfortunately, this is not the case.
There is no physics, there are no equations in the models that determines the strength of the GHE. Parameters are just set to obtain the observed temperature.
The GHE is dominated by water vapour, so how it changes with increasing CO2 is critical.
All the General Circulation Models, also known as Global Climate Models (GCM), just set various evaporation and precipitation parameters to achieve approximately the result:
Relative humidity = constant.
This result is based on short term observations of temperature changes while CO2 concentrations were approximately constant, so they only hold true over periods when CO2 does not change much. It is invalid to extrapolate these observations to long term periods with increasing CO2. The modellers just assume relative humidity is also constant while CO2 concentrations change.
There is no physics in support of this assumption..."
Miskolczi's paper won't be without controversy. There are far too many egos invested.
Judith Curry was critical of Miskolczi a year ago because she felt he had introduced a new definition of the greenhouse effect, one that wasn't very useful. It's a trivial complaint not worthy of her. I disagree with her criticism because it misses the important point, which is that Miskolczi has for the first time explained the physics behind how CO2 combines with water vapor and the other greenhouse gases to maintain energy equilibrium. And most importantly, his work makes it clear how the regulating mechanism for our Earth's temperature works. This is something that makes beautiful intuitive sense to any scientist not emotionally caught up in the AGW fiasco.
It's a huge clarification in my mind, and it is backed by sound theory that no one yet has poked a hole in. This is the first time that we have a rigorous theory that is consistent both with the physical laws and with observations. So far at least.
I feel certain this is the beginning of the end for Hansen. I would feel sorry for him had he simply made an honest mistake, but in this case he will fully deserve the ignominy that's about to befall him. And if his past is prologue, I don't imagine he'll be graceful about it.
For a highly technical review of Miskolczi's greenhouse theory (MGT) see
http://energiaakademia.lapunk.hu/ta.../dokumentumok/201406/miskolczi_greenhouse.pdf