Even the Pope sides with Futurecurrents

To lessen your confusion I will define my terms. Nominal value is 280 or 380 ppm. Percent is relative value expressed as pph. So, for example, in going from 280 to 380ppm, the increase relative to the initial value is (380-280)/280. If you want to express that increase as pph it becomes the dimensionless number 40 to one significant figure, and you may attach the label 'percent' to that number if you like. There. does that help?
 
I have no idea what you are trying to say. I have already pointed out that in many living systems, going from 280 ppm to 380 ppm would kill you twice as fast, regardless of some trivial percent change equation. In the case of the earth, that sustained ppm difference in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could mean a tiny 1 degree Celcius increase in MGT (Mean Global Temperature). Enough to completely change the repercussions that already under way: the landscape of the entire earth, extinctions, health issues to all living creatures in the food chain, etc. What is much worse, it puts us dangerously close if not on a path to runaway irreversible increases well beyond that 1 degree Celcius.

So your argument is that the earth will reach critical irreversible MGTs with catastrophic effects in 200 years instead of 100?
 
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What? Are you aware that there are more situations that can be counted where even tiny nomimal levels can have grave consequences to living systems or systems that have components that behave like living systems?

Let's take one example from tens of thousands that could be used. These are in Parts Per Million:

"Hydrogen cyanide causes rapid death by metabolic asphyxiation. The Lethal Concentration in air (LC50, concentration estimated to kill 50% of people) require to kill humans (cited in the same OSHA website) depends upon the duration of exposure, as shown in table 1:
Table 1. LC50 in Air Estimated for Humans [source: Hathaway et al. 1991. Proctor and Hughes’ Chemical Hazards of the Workplace. 3rd ed Van Nostrand Reinold, N.Y., N.Y.]"

Estimated time to death
LC50, ppm,
Exposure Duration


  • 3404 ppm
  • 1 minute

  • 270 ppm
  • 6 to 8 minutes

  • 181 ppm
  • 10 minutes

  • 135 ppm
  • 30 minutes
http://www.aristatek.com/newsletter/0604April/TechSpeak.aspx

It is basic science of sink/source systems (forget about feedback systems that make it much worse), and probably one of the first exercises any one does in a first year calculus course in high school, that shows how fast a bath tub fills if a certain amount of water is poured in versus the amount that is being removed. If you accept that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and you further accept ANY
accumulation in ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere over time without it being absorbed or removed, regardless of how "nominal" it is, BY SIMPLE REASONING YOU GET GLOBAL WARMING at a rate dx/dt, where dx is the rate of change in the amount of accumulation of whatever is acculuating and dt is the change in time. Further, If the system is a feedback system, you also get a positive dx^2/d^2t term for acceleration:

View attachment 158757


http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/science/causes.html#

What you can argue is that dx/dt is tiny and that the effect on climate change is way off in the models, and that it may takes tens of thousands of years instead of one hundred years to see 1 degree Celsius rise in mean global temperatures (this assumes there is no acceleration term, which is also wrong - but for the sake of argument let's proceed). The odds of this being true by the sophisticated statistical analysis that has been done, as I have said before, is probably a 2-sigma likelihood for climate models being correct at a p-value of 95%, no matter what other natural processes are in effect that could be contributing to the warming we see (probably higher, but I am being conservative). There is smoke, and human beings are part of the fire.

No one, and I mean no one in their right mind takes those odds with anything but the most serious consideration when the entire world is at stake! Don't ask me, ask any actuary. Ask any insurance company. Every leader in the world is scrambling to figure the way out of carbon consumption and deforestation.

It must be Halloween and the above post some twisted form of ET P&R trick or treating.

Seriously? You are comparing a poison like Cyanide to beneficial gas like CO2 which helps plants grow. High parts per million of Cyanide kills things therefore high ppm of CO2 is spooky and evil.

This must get the award for the most absurd banter of the month.
 
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wow is that a pile of agw speculative detritus.

you keep quoting that propaganda
and I keep having to quote this part back to you...
its modeling speculation... not science.


"This assessment comes about as the result of climate modeling experiments which show that it is the non-condensing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons that provide the necessary atmospheric temperature structure that ultimately determines the sustainable range for atmospheric water vapor and cloud amounts, and thus controls their radiative contribution to the terrestrial greenhouse effect. From this it follows that these non-condensing greenhouse gases provide the temperature environment that is necessary for water vapor and cloud feedback effects to operate, without which the water vapor dominated greenhouse effect would inevitably collapse and plunge the global climate into an icebound Earth state."


http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/lacis_01/


The bottom line is that atmospheric carbon dioxide acts as a thermostat in regulating the temperature of Earth. The rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide due to human industrial activity is therefore setting the course for continued global warming. Because of the large heat capacity of the climate system, the global surface temperature does not respond instantaneously to the sharp upturn of the carbon dioxide thermostat, which at this moment stands at 386.80 ppm compared to the normal interglacial maximum level of 280 ppm. Since humans are responsible for changing the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide, they then also have control over the global temperature of the Earth. Humans are at a difficult crossroad. Carbon dioxide is the lifeblood of civilization as we know it. It is also the direct cause fueling an impending climate disaster. There is no viable alternative to counteract global warming except through direct human effort to reduce the atmospheric CO2 level.

The basic physics for the present study is rooted in the high precision measurements documenting the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases as fully described in the IPCC AR4 report, and in the comprehensive HITRAN database (Rothman et al. 2009) of atmospheric absorption data. The radiative transfer calculations involve well-understood physics that is applied to the global energy balance of the Earth, which is maintained by radiative processes only, since the global net energy transports must equal zero. This demonstrates the nature of the terrestrial greenhouse effect as being sustained by the non-condensing GHGs, with magnification of the greenhouse effect by water vapor and cloud feedbacks, and leaves no doubt that increasing GHGs cause global warming.

^Not piezoe, NASA
 
" many recent findings that are wholly inconsistent with the foundations of their faith. "

like cherry picked non-surface satellite data sets?

like Antarctic sea ice expanding while the overall is decreasing?

I'm just wondering what these "findings" are.
Wrong again dumbass!

http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses

A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.

The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is overall losing land ice.

According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008.
 
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Looks like the current talks are not going far enough. Well, get ready for a likely 1.5 Celsius MGT because I don't see how we have a fusion reactor generating electricity any time soon enough:

"Pledges from dozens of nations to rein in carbon emissions aren’t enough so far to avoid catastrophic climate change, according to four European research centers.

Plans submitted by China, the U.S., the European Union and other top polluters won’t limit global warming to the 2-degree Celsius (3.6-degree Fahrenheit) threshold that scientists have recommended, the Climate Action Tracker coalition said in a report Wednesday.

Diplomats are meeting in Bonn this week to continue working on the landmark climate-change deal that more than 190 nations expect to complete in Paris this December. At the heart of the pact are plans from individual nations to control their own greenhouse-gas pollution. Those efforts won’t be nearly enough, the researchers said, in one of the first major analyses of the pledges submitted to date. Hitting a lower, 1.5-degree Celsius target, as some scientists have urged, looks even less likely.


“It is clear that if the Paris meeting locks in present climate commitments for 2030, holding warming below 2 degrees Celsius could essentially become infeasible, and 1.5 degrees Celsius beyond reach,” Bill Hare, chief executive officer of Potsdam, Germany-based Climate Analytics, one of the four research centers, said in a statement. The national pledges “need to be considerably strengthened..."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...forts-to-cut-carbon-pollution-won-t-be-enough
 
Looks like the current talks are not going far enough. Well, get ready for a likely 1.5 Celsius MGT because I don't see how we have a fusion reactor generating electricity any time soon enough:

"Pledges from dozens of nations to rein in carbon emissions aren’t enough so far to avoid catastrophic climate change, according to four European research centers.

Plans submitted by China, the U.S., the European Union and other top polluters won’t limit global warming to the 2-degree Celsius (3.6-degree Fahrenheit) threshold that scientists have recommended, the Climate Action Tracker coalition said in a report Wednesday.

Diplomats are meeting in Bonn this week to continue working on the landmark climate-change deal that more than 190 nations expect to complete in Paris this December. At the heart of the pact are plans from individual nations to control their own greenhouse-gas pollution. Those efforts won’t be nearly enough, the researchers said, in one of the first major analyses of the pledges submitted to date. Hitting a lower, 1.5-degree Celsius target, as some scientists have urged, looks even less likely.


“It is clear that if the Paris meeting locks in present climate commitments for 2030, holding warming below 2 degrees Celsius could essentially become infeasible, and 1.5 degrees Celsius beyond reach,” Bill Hare, chief executive officer of Potsdam, Germany-based Climate Analytics, one of the four research centers, said in a statement. The national pledges “need to be considerably strengthened..."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...forts-to-cut-carbon-pollution-won-t-be-enough
The bottom line is that the world is not going to stop burning fossil fuels until an alternative energy source is discovered or invented that is as efficient as fossil fuel. Period. End of story.

IMHO I think that it is highly likely that an alternative energy source will be discovered/invented at some point in the future. At that point the world will lower carbon emissions. Taxing and a stupid exchange so that Gore can become a billionaire will not do it. Evil capitalism will do it at some point.

Look if the libtards were actually serious about finding an alternative energy source they would do something like the Manhattan Project for alternative energy.

It would be great to hear how in the hell you think that Antarctica is experiencing a NET GAIN of ice when you belief that there is global warming. The new study by NASA that I posted above just blew a big fucking hole in the IPCC report and the global warming hypothesis in general.
 
What????

Now you are talking about percent change, not nominal change? I don't even think you understand what you are trying to say.

Are you saying that our measurements of levels of CO2 are made up?

"In measurement, a nominal value is often a value existing in name only;[1] it is assigned as a convenient designation rather than calculated by data analysis or following usual rounding methods. The use of nominal values can be based on de facto standards or some technical standards.

All real measurements have some variation depending on the accuracy and precision of the test method and the measurement uncertainty. The use of reported values often involves engineering tolerances.

One way to consider this is that the real value often has the characteristics of an irrational number. In real-world measuring situations, improving the measurement technique will eventually begin yielding unpredictable least significant digits. For example, a 1 inch long gauge block will measure to be exactly 1 inch long until the measuring techniques reach a certain degree of precision. As techniques improve beyond this threshold, it will become clear that 1 inch is not the real value of the gauge block length, but some other number approximates it."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_versus_nominal_value
"Are you saying that our measurements of levels of CO2 are made up?" No, of course not. Don't be insulting. If the word nominal bothers you, use the word 'measured' for it. Don't go nuts over this, just re-read my post and follow the example. It will be clear to you then that if I say to you the CO2 has gone up over the last hundred years from 280 to 380 that I have conveyed some useful information, whereas if I say the CO2 has gone up 40% I haven't. Think about this Nitro, I am confident that you are one of the few here who can grasp this.
 
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Nitro, regarding piezoe.....

Oreskes and Conway write that a handful of politically conservative scientists, with strong ties to particular industries, have "played a disproportionate role in debates about controversial questions".[5] The authors write that this has resulted in "deliberate obfuscation" of the issues which has had an influence on public opinion and policy-making.[5]

OBFUSCATION, he's good at it huh? It may be crude, but I think it is accurate. He is simply a bullshit artist.


But yeah, fusion is a possible savior. It now it is a race. But even fusion will not remove the CO2 already there. And as you point out, the Paris agreement is pitiful. The planet is in for some hard times ahead. I feel sorry for the grandchildren.
 
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